Probability 概率理论提供了一种方法以概括来自我们的惰性和无知的不确定 .Probabilistic assertions summarize effects of ,Laziness(惰性)：failure to enumerate exceptions（(例外)， qualifications（条件)，etc. ,Ignorance(理论的无知)：lack of relevant facts,initial conditions,etc Subjective probability(主观概率)： Probabilities relate propositions (to agent's own state of knowledge. e.g.,P(A25|no reported accidents)=0.06 These are not assertions(断言)about the world Probabilities of propositions change with new evidence: e.g.,P(A25|no reported accidents,5 a.m.)=0.15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Probability 概率理论提供了一种方法以概括来自我们的惰性和无知的不确定 性。Probabilistic assertions summarize effects of ▶ Laziness（惰性）: failure to enumerate exceptions（例外）, qualifications（条件）, etc. ▶ Ignorance（理论的无知）: lack of relevant facts, initial conditions, etc. Subjective probability（主观概率）: ▶ Probabilities relate propositions（命题）to agent’s own state of knowledge. e.g., P(A25| no reported accidents) = 0.06 These are not assertions（断言）about the world Probabilities of propositions change with new evidence: e.g., P(A25 | no reported accidents, 5 a.m.) = 0.15