Making decisions under uncertainty Suppose I believe the following: P(A25 gets me there on time)=0.04 P(Ago gets me there on time)=0.70 P(A120 gets me there on time)=0.95 P(A1440 gets me there on time)=0.9999 Which action to choose? 一Depends on my preferences(偏好)for missing flight vs.time spent waiting,etc. Utility theory(效用理论)is used to represent and infer preferences. Decision theory probability theory+utility theory 决策理论=概率理论十效用理论 口卡回t·三4色，是分Q0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Making decisions under uncertainty Suppose I believe the following: ▶ P(A25 gets me there on time | …) = 0.04 ▶ P(A90 gets me there on time | …) = 0.70 ▶ P(A120 gets me there on time | …) = 0.95 ▶ P(A1440 gets me there on time | …) = 0.9999 Which action to choose? —Depends on my preferences（偏好） for missing flight vs. time spent waiting, etc. Utility theory（效用理论） is used to represent and infer preferences. Decision theory = probability theory + utility theory 决策理论 = 概率理论 + 效用理论