Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. 97.414110.370000 263.28150.0000 M2Z 0.083649 0.094529 -0.8849000.3791 M2Z(-1) -0.1167440.093984-1.242161 0.2181 M2Z-2) -0.1199390.094428-1.270156 0.2080 M2z4-3) -0.0929930.095720 -0.971509 0.3345 M2z(-4) -0.032912 0.095823 -0.343468 0.7322 M2Z(-5) -0.023891 0.097813 -0.244256 0.8077 M2Z(-6) 0.0172900.100645 0.171794 0.8641 M2z-7刀 0.028288 0.097570 0.289929 0.7727 M2Z(-8) 0.048708 0.095877 0.508021 0.6129 M2Z4-9) 0.0259950.097569 0.2664220.7907 M2Z4-10) 0.118247 0.096764 1.222011 0.2256 M2Z(-11) 0.157408 0.102558 1.534815 0.1291 M2Z-12) 0.2712810.112316 2.415326 0.0182 M2Z4-13) 0.3257600.109217 2.982684 0.0039 M2Z-14) 0.396242 0.107046 3.701601 0.0004 M2Z-15) 0.335482 0.106776 3.141941 0.0024 M2Z4-16) 0.270811 0.107222 2.525697 0.0137 M2Z(-17刀 0.200024 0.109278 1.830415 0.0712 M2Z(-18) 0.169696 0.101547 1.671114 0.0989 R-squared 0.610520 Mean dependent var 100.6085 Adjusted R-squared 0.510519 S.D.dependent var 1.795733 S.E.of regression 1.256348 Akaike info criterion 3.480597 Sum squared resid 116.8024 Schwarz criterion 4.021724 Log likelihood -143.5881 F-statistic 6.105105 Durbin-Watson sta 0.308938 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 结果表明，从滞后12个月开始t统计量值显著，一直到滞后16个月为止，从滞后第17 个月开始1值变得不显著：再从回归系数来看，从滞后11个月开始，货币供应量变化对物 价水平的影响明显增加，再滞后14个月时达到最大，然后逐步下降。 3 43 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 97.41411 0.370000 263.2815 0.0000 M2Z -0.083649 0.094529 -0.884900 0.3791 M2Z(-1) -0.116744 0.093984 -1.242161 0.2181 M2Z(-2) -0.119939 0.094428 -1.270156 0.2080 M2Z(-3) -0.092993 0.095720 -0.971509 0.3345 M2Z(-4) -0.032912 0.095823 -0.343468 0.7322 M2Z(-5) -0.023891 0.097813 -0.244256 0.8077 M2Z(-6) 0.017290 0.100645 0.171794 0.8641 M2Z(-7) 0.028288 0.097570 0.289929 0.7727 M2Z(-8) 0.048708 0.095877 0.508021 0.6129 M2Z(-9) 0.025995 0.097569 0.266422 0.7907 M2Z(-10) 0.118247 0.096764 1.222011 0.2256 M2Z(-11) 0.157408 0.102558 1.534815 0.1291 M2Z(-12) 0.271281 0.112316 2.415326 0.0182 M2Z(-13) 0.325760 0.109217 2.982684 0.0039 M2Z(-14) 0.396242 0.107046 3.701601 0.0004 M2Z(-15) 0.335482 0.106776 3.141941 0.0024 M2Z(-16) 0.270811 0.107222 2.525697 0.0137 M2Z(-17) 0.200024 0.109278 1.830415 0.0712 M2Z(-18) 0.169696 0.101547 1.671114 0.0989 R-squared 0.610520 Mean dependent var 100.6085 Adjusted R-squared 0.510519 S.D. dependent var 1.795733 S.E. of regression 1.256348 Akaike info criterion 3.480597 Sum squared resid 116.8024 Schwarz criterion 4.021724 Log likelihood -143.5881 F-statistic 6.105105 Durbin-Watson stat 0.308938 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 结果表明，从滞后 12 个月开始 t 统计量值显著，一直到滞后 16 个月为止，从滞后第 17 个月开始 t 值变得不显著；再从回归系数来看，从滞后 11 个月开始，货币供应量变化对物 价水平的影响明显增加，再滞后 14 个月时达到最大，然后逐步下降