Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant 2020, an even higher percentage increase for the decade(16.6% over the 2010 level) Under the projected baseline scenario, the gap between the antici- pated annual growth rate of production and demand implies a rising deficit. Total grain consumption rises at 1. 48% per year, of which 0.76%0 is due to the rise in population and 0.72% is due to rising per capita grain demand. Nearly all of the higher per capita grain demand stems from the increased demand for feed grain (it rises by 2.89% while aggregate de- mand for food is stagnant). Grain production during this period groy only 1.35% annually Imports surge to 28 MMT by 2010 and remain at a similar level through 2020(30 MMT, table 3) The most surprising results of the commodity projections are those for wheat. Under the baseline scenario, the initial widening of the gap in the late 1990s implies a rising deficit. Wheat imports increase slightly in the early part of the projection period but fall back to their current levels by 2010 and by 2020 they fall to zero, implying that China will achieve self-sufficiency in wheat Several factors distinguish the wheat results from those of other studies. More than anything, falling wheat demand resulting from both rural to urban migration and emerging rural consumption markets allows pply to catch up. Other studies, such as those by Fan and Agcaoili and the economic research service which do not consider urbanization and market development forces, predict higher wheat imports. 4 Moreover, while there is considerable range in this study's projections for rice and even more for maize, few changes in assumptions result in predictions that China will become a significantly larger wheat importer than it cur rently is. Most major demand factors that appear to be inexorably in- creasing-urbanization, income growth (with zero or negative income demand elasticities), and market liberalization--push China's consumers to reduce wheat demand over the next 25 years The deficit of other grain(which is mostly maize), however, experi- ences a rapid rise; by 2020 almost all of China's cereal import needs will be for maize(table 3, row 4). Taste preferences for meat and rising in- comes stimulate meat demand and, indirectly, feed demand to such a great extent that after maize imports begin early in the twenty-first cen tury, they expand continuously even though the maize supply also accel erates. Major breakthroughs in maize technology(such as the adoption of varieties with Bt corn genes-genetically engineered pest-resistant maize plants-or new foreign-bred hybrids)could delay large imports. In fact, structural change of any type, such as unanticipated shif cropping pattems, could drastically alter the pattern of commodity specific forecasts. For example, rising wages could induce farmers to give up their intensive wheat-maize rotations in North China. If relative rices favored maize over wheat, large numbers of farmers might dec to stop producing winter wheat and plant a single crop of higher yielding Copyright@ 1999. All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved