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Tornell, and F, Westermann, 2006, Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth Journal of Banking and Finance, 30( 12): 3331--3348 Romero-Avila, D, 2009, Liberalization of Capital Controls and Interest Rates Restrictions in the EU-15: Did it Affect Economic Growth?", Applied Financial Economics, 19(20): 1625-1648 Stockman, A., 1981, Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in A Cash in Advance Economy", Journal of Monetary Economics 8(2 393 Taylor, J., 1993, Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39(1): 195-214 White, L., 1991, The s&L Debacle Public Policy Lessons for Bank and Thrift Regulation, New York: Oxford University Press. icksell, 1898, Interest and Prices, Hahn, R.(Tans ) New York: Kelley, 1965 Woodford, M., 2003, Interest and Prices, Princeton University Press. The effectiveness of interest Rate liberalization Jin Zhongxia, Hong Hao"and Li Hongji (a: The Peoples Bank of China; b: Guangdong University of Finance Abstract: By building, calibrating and simulating a DSGE model based on Stockman( 1981)Cash in Advance( CIA),we explain, analysis and predict the macro-economy and economic structure outcomes of interest rate liberalization in China The models steady state, impulse responses and simulation results show that higher real deposit rate and capital marginal cost will suppress investment and capital stock growth, increase the consumption ratio in GDP, which improves the conomic structure and promote sustainable development; increasing interest rate can offset fluctuation facing shocks: the persistence of real economy to the reaction of monetary policy enhances, which means a better interest rate channel. We wont worry about the negative effects on investments and economy as the model shows. We should steadily promote the terest rate liberalization reform, update traditional development concepts, promote capital efficiency and consu n economic growth with the interest rate liberalization, strengthen the price lever in monetary policy and realize sustainable healthy development of Chinas economy. Key Words: Interest Rate Liberalization; DSGE; Macro-economy; Economic Structure JEL Classification: E43. E58, G18 (责任编辑:成言)(校对:昱莹)金中夏等 ：利率市场化对货币政策有效·眭和经济结构调整的影响 WorkingPaper，No．9787． Khatkhate，D ，1988，“AssessingtheImpactofInterestinLessDevelopedCountries”，WorldDevelopment，16(5)：577— 588． Kydland，F．，andE．Prescott，l982，“TimetoBuildandAggregateFluctuations”，Econometrica，50(6)：1345— 1370． Lee，T．，and J． Shin，2007，“FinancialLiberalization， Crises， and Economic Growth”， EastAsian Bureau ofEconomic Research WorkingPaper，No．22030． Levine，R．，2001，“InternationalFinancialLiberalizationandEconomicGrowth”，Review ofInternationalEconomics，9(4)：688— 702 Long，J．，andC．Plosser，1983，“RealBusinessCycles”，JournalofPoliticalEconomy，91(1)：39—69． Lucas，R．，1976，“EconometricPolicyEvaluation：ACritique”，Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy，l(1)：l9— 46． Lucas，R，l988，“OntheMechanicsofEconomicDevelopment”，JournalofMonetaryEconomics，22(1)：3—42． Lucas，R，1996，“NobelLecture：MonetaryNeutrality”，JournalofPoliticalEconomy，104(4)：661—682． Lucas，R．，andN Stokey，1987，“MoneyandInterestinaCash-in—AdvanceEconomy”，Econometrica，55(3)：491—5l3． McKinnon，R．，1973，Moneyand CapitalinEconomicDevelopment，W ashington：BrookingsInstitution． Nelson，C．，andC．，Plosser，1983，“TrendsandRandomWalksinMacroeconomicTimeSeries”，JournalofMonetaryEconomics，10 (2)：139一 l62． Porter，N．，andT．Xu，2009，“W hatDrivesChina’sInterbank Market?”，IMF W orkingPaper，No．189． Ranciere，R．，A．Tornell，and F． W estermann，2006，“Decomposingthe EffectsofFinancialLiberalization： Crisesvs． Growth”， JournalofBankingandFinance，30(12)：3331 3348． Romero—Avila．D．，2009，“Liberalization ofCapitalControlsand InterestRatesRestrictionsin theEU一 15：Did itAfectEconomic Growth?”，AppliedFinancialEconomics，19(20)：1625- 1648． Shaw，E．，1973，FinancialDeepeningin EconomicDevelopment，New York：Oxford UniversityPress． Stockman，A．，1981，“AnticipatedInflationandtheCapitalStockinACashinAdvanceEconomy”，JournalofMonetaryEconomics， 8(2)：387— 393 Taylor，J．，1993，“DiscretionVersusPolicyRulesinPractice”，Carnegie-RochesterConferenceSeriesonPublicPolicy，39(1)： 195— 2l4 White，L．，1991，TheS&L Debacle：Public PolicyLessonsforBank andThriftRegulation，New York：Oxford UniversityPress． Wicksell，1898，InterestandPrices，Hahn，R．(Tans．)，New York：Kelley，1965． Woodford，M．，2003，Interestand Prices，PrincetonUniversityPress． The Effectiveness ofInterestRate Liberalization JinZhongxia。．HongHao andLiHongjin' (a：ThePeople’sBankofChina；b：GuangdongUniversityofFinance) Abstract：Bybuilding，calibratingandsimulatingaDSGEmodelbasedonStockman(1981)CashinAdvance(CIA)，we explain，analysisandpredictthemacro—economy and economic structureoutcomesofinterestrate liberalization in China． Themodel’gsteadystate，impulseresponsesand simulation resultsshow thathigherrealdepositrateandcapitalmarginal costwillsuppress investmentand capital stock growth， increase the consumption ratio in GDP， which improves the economic structureand promotesustainable development；increasinginterestrate canoffsetfluctuationfacing shocks；the persistenceofrealeconomytothe reaction ofmonetarypolicy enhances，which meansabetterinterestrate channe1． W e won’tworryaboutthe negative effectson investmentsand economy asthemodelshows． W eshould steadily promote the interestrateliberalizationreform ，updatetraditionaldevelopmentconcepts，promotecapitalefi ciencyandconsumptionrole in economic growth with the interest rate liberalization， strengthen the price lever in monetary policy and realize a sustainablehealthydevelopmentofChina’seconomy． Key W ords：InterestRateLiberalization；DSGE；Macro—economy；EconomicStructure JEL Classification：E43，E58，G18 82 (责任编 辑 ：成 言)(校对 ：昱 莹 )