19.What Does the Future Hold? 409 mulations up to the limiting density of 1016 m2 are observed.SPD yields an increase in tensile ductility without a substantial loss in strength and fatigue behavior.Furthermore,unusual phase trans- formations leading to highly metastable states have been reported and are associated with a formation of supersaturated solid solu- tions,disordering,amorphization,and a high thermal stability.More- over,superplastic elongations in alloys that are generally not super- plastic can be achieved.This affords a superplastic flow at strain rates significantly faster than in conventional alloys,enabling the rapid fabrication of complex parts.Finally,the magnetic properties of se- verely plastic deformed materials are different from their conven- tional counterparts.In particular,one observes an enhanced rema- nence in hard magnetic materials,a decrease of coercivity,(i.e.energy loss)in soft magnetic materials,and an induced magnetic anisotropy. In short,the field of materials science is extending into new territory and this trend is expected to continue. Still,"Predictions are quite difficult to make,particularly if they pertain to the future."As an example,a U.S.congressman suggested at the end of the 19th century that the patent office should be abolished,"since all major inventions have been made already."Moreover,it has been shown more than once that ex- trapolations of the present knowledge and accomplishments into the years which lay ahead were flatly wrong.Thus,utmost care needs to be exercised when projections are made.To demonstrate this,Figure 19.1 displays the development of essential materials properties during the 20th century. One particular graph that demonstrates essentially correct pre- dictions is worthy of some considerations.Figure 19.1 (d)depicts the number of transistors on a semiconductor chip in yearly inter- vals and reveals that initially the transistor density doubles about every 12 months.This plot,which was empirically deduced from earlier production figures (by an extrapolation of only three earlier data points),was dubbed Moore's law (after Gordon E.Moore at Fairchild Semiconductor)and depicts a log-linear relationship be- tween device complexity and time.This type of prediction into the future is often referred to as a controlling variable,or a self-fulfilling prophecy since each computer chip manufacturer knows what the competitor will present in a given amount of time and acts accord- ingly.In other words,Moore's law involves human ingenuity for progress rather than physics.Higher transistor densities means higher processing speeds,lower power consumption,better relia- bility,and reduced cost.Beginning in the mid-seventies,the slope became less steep but still behaved in a log-linear fashion,and the rate of density doubling slowed down to every 18 months.(At the same time interval the magnetic storage density on hard disk drives doubled every 3 years.)mulations up to the limiting density of 1016 m-2 are observed. SPD yields an increase in tensile ductility without a substantial loss in strength and fatigue behavior. Furthermore, unusual phase trans￾formations leading to highly metastable states have been reported and are associated with a formation of supersaturated solid solu￾tions, disordering, amorphization, and a high thermal stability. More￾over, superplastic elongations in alloys that are generally not super￾plastic can be achieved. This affords a superplastic flow at strain rates significantly faster than in conventional alloys, enabling the rapid fabrication of complex parts. Finally, the magnetic properties of se￾verely plastic deformed materials are different from their conven￾tional counterparts. In particular, one observes an enhanced rema￾nence in hard magnetic materials, a decrease of coercivity, (i.e. energy loss) in soft magnetic materials, and an induced magnetic anisotropy. In short, the field of materials science is extending into new territory and this trend is expected to continue. Still, “Predictions are quite difficult to make, particularly if they pertain to the future.” As an example, a U.S. congressman suggested at the end of the 19th century that the patent office should be abolished, “since all major inventions have been made already.” Moreover, it has been shown more than once that ex￾trapolations of the present knowledge and accomplishments into the years which lay ahead were flatly wrong. Thus, utmost care needs to be exercised when projections are made. To demonstrate this, Figure 19.1 displays the development of essential materials properties during the 20th century. One particular graph that demonstrates essentially correct pre￾dictions is worthy of some considerations. Figure 19.1 (d) depicts the number of transistors on a semiconductor chip in yearly inter￾vals and reveals that initially the transistor density doubles about every 12 months. This plot, which was empirically deduced from earlier production figures (by an extrapolation of only three earlier data points), was dubbed Moore’s law (after Gordon E. Moore at Fairchild Semiconductor) and depicts a log-linear relationship be￾tween device complexity and time. This type of prediction into the future is often referred to as a controlling variable, or a self-fulfilling prophecy since each computer chip manufacturer knows what the competitor will present in a given amount of time and acts accord￾ingly. In other words, Moore’s law involves human ingenuity for progress rather than physics. Higher transistor densities means higher processing speeds, lower power consumption, better relia￾bility, and reduced cost. Beginning in the mid-seventies, the slope became less steep but still behaved in a log-linear fashion, and the rate of density doubling slowed down to every 18 months. (At the same time interval the magnetic storage density on hard disk drives doubled every 3 years.) 19 • What Does the Future Hold? 409