410 19.What Does the Future Hold? Strength of permanent magnets Operating temperatures of engines 40 Nd2FeB 1600 T Sm2(Co,Fe,Cu)7 (C) 30 1200 Turbojet 800 Air-cooled CosSm engine Steam 10 AlNiCo 400 engine Steel 1900 20 40 60 80 1900 20 40 6080 Year Year (a) (b) Critical temperature Components per chip for superconductors T 108 (K) 125 103 Three 10 dimensional 10 10 MOS 39 103 23 17 103 4.2 10 Bipolar ZZ7ZZZ☑ 1 1911 1953 19731988 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year Year (c) (d) FIGURE 19.1.Improve- ments of materials On the other hand,for each doubling of performance,new and properties during the more sophisticated production facilities which may have price tags 20th century. of about twice the previous factory,have to be built.Specifically, it is predicted that by 2005 a single chip fabrication facility will cost 10 billion dollars or 80%of Intel's net worth.Thus,eventually there may be no economic incentive anymore to make transistors smaller unless computer chip companies team together(such as IBM and Toshiba,or Motorola and Siemens)and share a given facility.On the other hand, for each doubling of performance, new and more sophisticated production facilities which may have price tags of about twice the previous factory, have to be built. Specifically, it is predicted that by 2005 a single chip fabrication facility will cost 10 billion dollars or 80 % of Intel’s net worth. Thus, eventually there may be no economic incentive anymore to make transistors smaller unless computer chip companies team together (such as IBM and Toshiba, or Motorola and Siemens) and share a given facility. 410 19 • What Does the Future Hold? FIGURE 19.1. Improve￾ments of materials properties during the 20th century. 10 20 30 40 1900 20 40 60 80 1600 20 40 60 80 400 800 1200 1900 Year (BH)max (MGOe) Steel AlNiCo Co5Sm Sm2(Co, Fe, Cu)17 Nd2Fe14B Strength of permanent magnets Operating temperatures of engines (a) (b) Year T (C) Steam engine Air-cooled engine Turbojet 1960 1970 1980 1990 1 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 (d) (c) Year 1911 1953 1988 1973 Year Components per chip Bipolar MOS Three dimensional Components per chip ￾￾ ￾￾￾￾ ￾￾￾￾ ￾￾￾ ￾￾ ￾￾ ￾￾ 4.2 17 23 39 125 T (K) Critical temperature for superconductors