TWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 135 equate"level may offset any such change in studies have examined the relationship be- the significance of male economic prospects tween economic prospects and marriage for- for marriage. mation separately for black men and white It is also important to note,however,that men (Lloyd and South 1996;Oppenheimer the economic and attitudinal context of mar- et al.1997).Statistical tests generally were riage differs substantially by race.Black not performed to evaluate the significance of men have seen greater erosion in their own racial differences,however.Nor were racial labor market position in recent decades than differences in the nature of historical change have white men (U.S.Bureau of the Census explored. 1984,1991;Wilson 1987).Historically, Previous studies have drawn varying con- black women have been more likely to work clusions about the impact of labor market for pay than have white women,even when position on the marital behavior of women, factors such as education,family income, with notable differences across level of and number of children are controlled analysis.Studies taking an aggregate-level (Goldin 1990).Yet growth in income-par- approach-most often examining the pro- ticularly relative to that of same-race men- portion of married individuals in a particu- has been significantly greater for black lar local area-generally suggest that women than for white women (U.S.Bureau women's good economic prospects are asso- of the Census 1984,1991).In addition,ra- ciated with reduced marriage(Cready et al. cial differences are reported in attitudes to- 1997:Lichter,LeClere,and McLaughlin ward various aspects of family life (Carter 1991;McLanahan and Casper 1995;Preston 1993:South 1991).African Americans tend and Richards 1975;White 1981).Aggregate- to place greater emphasis on economic sta- level studies have been criticized,however, bility in marital decision-making than do because factors that produce aggregate-level whites,and black women are found to be variation in marriage prevalence may not re- less willing than white women to marry a late in the same way to marriage behavior man with fewer resources than themselves among individuals (Oppenheimer 1997). (Bulcroft and Bulcroft 1993).Although the Moreover,studies using cross-sectional data potentially offsetting nature of these factors can face difficulties identifying the correct leads to uncertain predictions about the ex- causal ordering of variables and tend to con- pected nature of racial differences in the trol only a very limited number of character- changing economic basis of marriage,it is istics relevant to marriage formation.This clearly important to consider variation in may lead to biased estimation of the coeffi- patterns of marriage by race. cients of interest.In contrast,individual- level studies of longitudinal data generally PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND THE report no relationship or a positive relation- ship between various indicators of women's PRESENT STUDY economic prospects and marriage formation Previous studies of the economic context of (Cherlin 1980:Goldscheider and Waite marriage have focused most often on three 1986;Lichter et al.1992;Oppenheimer and key indicators of position in the labor mar- Lew 1995:Thornton,Axinn,and Teachman ket:educational attainment,employment 1995:Waite and Spitze 1981).Although few status,and earnings.Regardless of time pe- studies directly test for significant racial dif- riod,data set,or analytical technique em- ferences in the effect of economic prospects ployed,these studies generally report posi- on marriage formation,and none explicitly tive effects of good economic prospects on marriage among men (e.g.,Cooney and riage,several studies instead report a negative Hogan 1991;Cready,Fossett,and Kiecolt effect of male education on marriage (e.g.,Lloyd 1991;Goldscheider and Waite 1986;Koball and South 1996:Mare and Winship 1991).Re- 1998;Oppenheimer,Kalmijn,and Lim sults from models with detailed categorical speci- fications of education suggest that these seem- 1997;Sassler and Schoen 1999).2 Several ingly contradictory results may be driven by the relatively high likelihood of marriage among 2 While most studies report an overall positive white men with less than 12 years of schooling effect of male educational attainment on mar- (Oppenheimer and Lewin 1999). This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon,12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and ConditionsTWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 135 equate" level may offset any such change in the significance of male economic prospects for marriage. It is also important to note, however, that the economic and attitudinal context of mar￾riage differs substantially by race. Black men have seen greater erosion in their own labor market position in recent decades than have white men (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1984, 1991; Wilson 1987). Historically, black women have been more likely to work for pay than have white women, even when factors such as education, family income, and number of children are controlled (Goldin 1990). Yet growth in income-par￾ticularly relative to that of same-race men￾has been significantly greater for black women than for white women (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1984, 1991). In addition, ra￾cial differences are reported in attitudes to￾ward various aspects of family life (Carter 1993; South 1991). African Americans tend to place greater emphasis on economic sta￾bility in marital decision-making than do whites, and black women are found to be less willing than white women to marry a man with fewer resources than themselves (Bulcroft and Bulcroft 1993). Although the potentially offsetting nature of these factors leads to uncertain predictions about the ex￾pected nature of racial differences in the changing economic basis of marriage, it is clearly important to consider variation in patterns of marriage by race. PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND THE PRESENT STUDY Previous studies of the economic context of marriage have focused most often on three key indicators of position in the labor mar￾ket: educational attainment, employment status, and earnings. Regardless of time pe￾riod, data set, or analytical technique em￾ployed, these studies generally report posi￾tive effects of good economic prospects on marriage among men (e.g., Cooney and Hogan 1991; Cready, Fossett, and Kiecolt 1991; Goldscheider and Waite 1986; Koball 1998; Oppenheimer, Kalmijn, and Lim 1997; Sassler and Schoen 1999).2 Several studies have examined the relationship be￾tween economic prospects and marriage for￾mation separately for black men and white men (Lloyd and South 1996; Oppenheimer et al. 1997). Statistical tests generally were not performed to evaluate the significance of racial differences, however. Nor were racial differences in the nature of historical change explored. Previous studies have drawn varying con￾clusions about the impact of labor market position on the marital behavior of women, with notable differences across level of analysis. Studies taking an aggregate-level approach-most often examining the pro￾portion of married individuals in a particu￾lar local area-generally suggest that women's good economic prospects are asso￾ciated with reduced marriage (Cready et al. 1997; Lichter, LeClere, and McLaughlin 1991; McLanahan and Casper 1995; Preston and Richards 1975; White 1981). Aggregate￾level studies have been criticized, however, because factors that produce aggregate-level variation in marriage prevalence may not re￾late in the same way to marriage behavior among individuals (Oppenheimer 1997). Moreover, studies using cross-sectional data can face difficulties identifying the correct causal ordering of variables and tend to con￾trol only a very limited number of character￾istics relevant to marriage formation. This may lead to biased estimation of the coeffi￾cients of interest. In contrast, individual￾level studies of longitudinal data generally report no relationship or a positive relation￾ship between various indicators of women's economic prospects and marriage formation (Cherlin 1980; Goldscheider and Waite 1986; Lichter et al. 1992; Oppenheimer and Lew 1995; Thornton, Axinn, and Teachman 1995; Waite and Spitze 1981). Although few studies directly test for significant racial dif￾ferences in the effect of economic prospects on marriage formation, and none explicitly 2 While most studies report an overall positive effect of male educational attainment on mar￾riage, several studies instead report a negative effect of male education on marriage (e.g., Lloyd and South 1996; Mare and Winship 1991). Re￾sults from models with detailed categorical speci￾fications of education suggest that these seem￾ingly contradictory results may be driven by the relatively high likelihood of marriage among white men with less than 12 years of schooling (Oppenheimer and Lewin 1999). This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon, 12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions