模型求解 1.估计在这种策略下失去销售机会的可能性 第n周失去销售机会的概率 P(D>S)=∑PD>|s2=PVSn=)n充分大时 =P(D>)m1+P(D>2m2+P(O>3)n3 D 0 2 3 >3 =(0.285,0.2630.452) P0.3680.3680.1840.0610.019 =0.264×0.285+0080×0.263+0019×0.452=0.105 从长期看,失去销售机会的可能性大约10%模型求解 1. 估计在这种策略下失去销售机会的可能性 第n周失去销售机会的概率 ( ) P Dn >Sn n充分大时 n wi P(S = i) = ( ) ( ) 3 1 P D i S i P S i n i =∑ n > n = = = D 0 1 2 3 >3 P 0.368 0.368 0.184 0.061 0.019 1 2 3 = P(D >1)w +P(D > 2)w +P(D >3)w w = (0.285,0.263,0.452) = 0.264×0.285+0.080×0.263+0.019×0.452= 0.105 从长期看，失去销售机会的可能性大约 10%