SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Industrial Production Seaborne Trades 1993-2014 30 %p.a. 5.0 bn tonnes ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ Coal 25 4.5 Iron Ore Pacific-S/SE Asia India Grain ☐Minor Bulks 20 4.0 Oil Products Crude Oil 6E:S5:80 102/60/9L lou suosxB'MM/dny 15 3.5 10 3.0 从 2.5 2.0 -5 -10 Atlantic-US Europe 0 -15 0.5 -20 0.0 5 每每 80-uer 墨国員囂意昌眉局食 Licensed to Shanghai Maritime University.Distribution is restricted:please Source: Clarkson Research Services Source:Clarkson Research Services Figure 1.2.1 Figure 1.2.2 GDP(%yoy) 201120122013(e)2014(fD2015(f) Seaborne Trades Forecast 201020112012 OECD 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 (mt/mTEU) 2013(e)2014(fD Iron Ore 991 1.052 1.109 1.186 1.295 USA 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 10.4% 6.296 5.4% 6.9% 9.2% Japan -0.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.0 Coking Coal 235 223 235 265 279 European Union 1.7-0.3 0.01.3 1.6 25.3% -5.4% 5.8% 12.4% 5.4% Steam Coal 665 724 827 849 885 Germany 3.1 0.9 0.5 1.6 1.4 12.8% 8.8% 14% 2.7% 4.2% remember to acknowledge the sourde. France 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 Grains inc.s'beans 343 345 370 377 385 UK 0.9 0.3 1.7 2.2 2.4 6.9% 0.6% 7.2% 1.8% 2.3% Italy 0.4 -2.5 -1.8 0.6 1.1 Other Bulks 1,359 1.484 1,546 1,632 1,649 1360692●% 4.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 4.2% 5.6% Russia 3.4 11% Total Dry Bulk 3.5943.828 4,087 4,308 4,494 China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 Trades (mt) 12.6%6.5% 6.8% 5.4% 4.3% Asian NIEs 4.5 6.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 Crude 1,867 1,857 1,901 1,863 1,887 South Korea 3.7 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.0 3.0% -0.50 2.4 -2.0% 12% 3.9 Products 886 914 927 971 Taiwan 1.006 4.1 1.3 2.2 3.8 6.8% 3.2% 1.4% 4.8% 3.6% Hong Kong SAR 4.9 4.5 3.0 4.4 4.4 Total Oil Trades 2.7532.771 2,828 2.834 2.893 Singapore 5.2 13 3.5 3.4 3.6 (mt) 4.2% 0.69% 2.1% 0.2% 2.1% Thailand 0.1 6.5 3.1 5.2 5.0 Container Trade 94 100 101 102 106 Malaysia 5.1 5.6 4.7 4.9 5.2 Europe Asia 294 313 330 345 368 India 7.7 3.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 N.America 47 48 49 50 53 Africa 5.3 4.8 5.1 6.1 5.8 Others 111 112 118 122 128 S&C America 4.5 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 Total (mTEU lifts) 545 573 598 619 654 138 3.9 Total Container 148 153 160 170 http://ww.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:39 36122 WORLD 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.7 Trade (mTEU) 13.1%7.2% 3.1% 5.0% 6.0% Forecast,Source:IMF (Jan 2014) Table 1.1 Economic Growth Table 1.2 Seaborne Trade Clarkson Research Services Spring 2014 11Clarkson Research Services Spring 2014 11 SHIPPING MARKET OUTLOOK Table 1.1 Economic Growth Table 1.2 Seaborne Trade Figure 1.2.1 Figure 1.2.2 -20 -15 -10 -505 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 % p.a. Source: Clarkson Research Services Industrial Production Pacific - S/SE Asia & India Atlantic - US & Europe 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (f) bn tonnes Source: Clarkson Research Services Seaborne Trades 1993-2014 Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulks Oil Products Crude Oil GDP (% yoy) 2011 2012 2013(e) 2014(f) 2015(f) OECD 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 USA 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 Japan -0.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.0 European Union 1.7 -0.3 0.0 1.3 1.6 Germany 3.1 0.9 0.5 1.6 1.4 France 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 UK 0.9 0.3 1.7 2.2 2.4 Italy 0.4 -2.5 -1.8 0.6 1.1 Russia 4.3 3.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 Asian NIEs 4.5 6.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 South Korea 3.7 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.0 Taiwan 4.1 1.3 2.2 3.8 3.9 Hong Kong SAR 4.9 4.5 3.0 4.4 4.4 Singapore 5.2 1.3 3.5 3.4 3.6 Thailand 0.1 6.5 3.1 5.2 5.0 Malaysia 5.1 5.6 4.7 4.9 5.2 India 7.7 3.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 Africa 5.3 4.8 5.1 6.1 5.8 S & C America 4.5 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 WORLD 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.7 3.9 * Forecast, Source: IMF (Jan 2014) 2010 2011 2012 2013 ( e )2014 ( f) Iron Ore 991 1,052 1,109 1,186 1,295 10.4% 6.2% 5.4% 6.9% 9.2% Coking Coal 235 223 235 265 279 25.3% -5.4% 5.8% 12.4% 5.4% Steam Coal 665 724 827 849 885 12.8% 8.8% 14% 2.7% 4.2% Grains inc. s'beans 343 345 370 377 385 6.9% 0.6% 7.2% 1.8% 2.3% Other Bulks 1,359 1,484 1,546 1,632 1,649 13.6% 9.2% 4.2% 5.6% 1.1% 3,594 3,828 4,087 4,308 4,494 12.6% 6.5% 6.8% 5.4% 4.3% Crude 1,867 1,857 1,901 1,863 1,887 3.0% -0.5% 2.4% -2.0% 1.2% Products 886 914 927 971 1,006 6.8% 3.2% 1.4% 4.8% 3.6% 2,753 2,771 2,828 2,834 2,893 4.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 2.1% Container Trade Europe 94 100 101 102 106 Asia 294 313 330 345 368 N.America 47 48 49 50 53 Others 111 112 118 122 128 Total (mTEU lifts) 545 573 598 619 654 138 148 153 160 170 13.1% 7.2% 3.1% 5.0% 6.0% Seaborne Trades (mt / mTEU) Total Dry Bulk Trades (mt ) Total Oil Trades (mt) Total Container Trade (mTEU ) Forecast Licensed to Shanghai Maritime University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:39 36122 Licensed to Shanghai Maritime University. Distribution is restricted; please remember to acknowledge the source. http://www.clarksons.net 15/09/2014 08:45:39 36122