140 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW Table 2.Coefficients for Women from the Logistic Regression of Transition to First Marriage on Selected Independent Variables:National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth(NLSY)and Young Women (NLSW) White Women Black Women Early Cohort Late Cohort Early Cohort Late Cohort Independent Variable Coef.S.E. Coef.S.E. Coef.S.E. Coef.S.E. Earnings(log) .07 (.04) .19*t (.04) .01 (.06) .22+(.05) No earnings -.25 (.13) -.38 (.13) -.19 (.17) -.59 (.15) Educational Attainment Less than 12 years .24 (.12) 36 (.11) -.01 (.15) -.04 (.15) 13 to 15 years .41* (.11) .23 (.10) -.27+ (.23) 03 (.13) 16 or more years 42 (.16) ,41 (,11) .85 (.26) 37 (.19) Currently enrolled in school -.87 (.10) -.71° (.09) -.25# (.16) -09t (.14) Currently employed 03 (.09) -.01 (.09) .14 (.16) .08 (.13) Family Background Variables Two-parent family at -.16 (.11) 02 (.08) 22* (.14) .14 (.10) age 14 Family head's job is -11 (.09) -.06 (.08) -09 (.36) .07 (.21) professional/managerial Mother's education: 12 years -.06 (.09) .00 (.08) -.12 (.19) -.06 (.11) 13 or more years -.21 (.12) -21 (.10) -.25 (.31) -31 (.18) Residence Lives in South .27* (.08) 41 (.07) .07 (.14) .35 (.11) Lives in SMSA -.26 (.08) -.22 (.08) -.03 (.15) -.15 (.12) Constant -3.87* (.80) -4.14(.51) -3.71*(.89) 4.66 (.58) Log-likelihood -2,673 -3.446 -1.049 -1,720 Number of person years 6,794 10,185 4,122 8.230 Nore:Standard errors are in parentheses.For mother's education the omitted category is"less than high school";for respondent's education it is"12 years."Models also contain controls for age and indicators for missing data. Significantly different from the early cohort coefficent at p<.05(two-tailed tests) Significantly different from the white(within-cohort)coefficient at p<.05(two-tailed tests) "p<.05 (two-tailed tests) their own research,Oppenheimer and Lewin the early cohort,although this effect itself is (1999)suggest that the least educated white not statistically significant even among women may prefer to marry at an earlier age, black women. but are hesitant to do so given their poor In the next stage of the analysis,I investi- economic position.School enrollment also gate whether economic prospects have be- has significantly stronger marriage-delaying come less important over time for marriage effects for white women than for black formation among men.The first column of women in both cohorts.Finally,living in a Table 3 displays results for white men in the two-parent family at age 14 has a stronger early baby-boom cohort.Early cohort white positive effect on marriage formation among men's earnings display the expected positive black women than among white women in relationship to marriage formation,with This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon,12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions140 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW Table 2. Coefficients for Women from the Logistic Regression of Transition to First Marriage on Selected Independent Variables: National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY) and Young Women (NLSW) White Women Black Women Early Cohort Late Cohort Early Cohort Late Cohort Independent Variable Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Coef. S.E. Earnings (log) .07 (.04) 19*t (.04) .01 (.06) .22*t (.05) No earnings -.25 (.13) -.38* (.13) -.19 (.17) -.59* (.15) Educational Attainment Less than 12 years .24* (.12) .36* (.11) -.01 (.15) -.04t (.15) 13 to 15 years .41* (.11) .23* (.10) -.27t (.23) .03 (.13) 16 or more years .42* (.16) .41* (.11) .85* (.26) .37* (.19) Currently enrolled in school -.87* (.10) -.71* (.09) -.25t (.16) -.09t (.14) Currently employed .03 (.09) -.01 (.09) .14 (.16) .08 (.13) Family Background Variables Two-parent family at -.16 (.11) .02 (.08) .22t (.14) .14 (.10) age 14 Family head's job is -.11 (.09) -.06 (.08) -.09 (.36) .07 (.21) professional/managerial Mother's education: 12 years -.06 (.09) .00 (.08) -.12 (.19) -.06 (.11) 13 or more years -.21 (.12) -.2 * (.10) -.25 (.31) -.31 (.18) Residence Lives in South .27* (.08) .41* (.07) .07 (.14) .35* (.11) Lives in SMSA -.26* (.08) -.22* (.08) -.03 (.15) -.15 (.12) Constant -3.87* (.80) -4.14* (.51) -3.71* (.89) -4.66* (.58) Log-likelihood -2,673 -3,446 -1,049 -1,720 Number of person years 6,794 10,185 4,122 8,230 Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. For mother's education the omitted category is "less than high school"; for respondent's education it is "12 years." Models also contain controls for age and indicators for missing data. Significantly different from the early cohort coefficent at p < .05 (two-tailed tests) Significantly different from the white (within-cohort) coefficient at p < .05 (two-tailed tests) *p < .05 (two-tailed tests) their own research, Oppenheimer and Lewin (1999) suggest that the least educated white women may prefer to marry at an earlier age, but are hesitant to do so given their poor economic position. School enrollment also has significantly stronger marriage-delaying effects for white women than for black women in both cohorts. Finally, living in a two-parent family at age 14 has a stronger positive effect on marriage formation among black women than among white women in the early cohort, although this effect itself is not statistically significant even among black women. In the next stage of the analysis, I investi￾gate whether economic prospects have be￾come less important over time for marriage formation among men. The first column of Table 3 displays results for white men in the early baby-boom cohort. Early cohort white men's earnings display the expected positive relationship to marriage formation, with This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon, 12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions