TWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 139 marriage formation (e.g.,Michael and Tuma role of student with the responsibilities as- 1985),several family background variables sociated with marriage and a family are included in the analysis,all measured at (Thornton et al.1995).No statistically sig- the time of first interview.These include nificant effects are found for family back- dummy variables indicating whether the re- ground variables in the early cohort,but a spondent was living in a two-parent family positive effect on marriage is associated at age 14,whether the respondent's father with living in the South or outside of an (or head of household)was employed in a SMSA. managerial or professional occupation,as The focus of the analysis lies in identify- well as a categorical measure of the ing how these effects have changed over respondent's mother's educational attain- time.Compare the first column in Table 2 ment.Consistent with national trends,data with the second column,which shows a par- from the National Longitudinal Surveys in- allel model for white women in the late dicate decline over time in the proportion of baby-boom cohort.Although the pattern of young people growing up in two-parent effects in the two cohorts of white women is families and some increase in the level of generally similar,the effect of women's mothers'educational attainment.Finally,as earnings on marriage formation increases various local-area characteristics have been over time as predicted.The level of women's found to be related to marriage in prior re- earnings was not significantly related to search (e.g.,Lichter et al.1992),dummy marriage in the early baby-boom cohort of variables are included in the models for cur- white women,yet significantly stronger ef- rent residence in the South and in a Standard fects are observed among white women in Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA).Mean the later cohort.Indeed,each unit increase values are assigned in the case of missing in logged earnings is associated with a 21- data on earnings,and separate indicators of percent increase in the odds of marriage for missing data on this and other variables are the later cohort of women,while having no included in all models,as appropriate (see earnings is associated with a 32-percent re- note 5).With the exception of family back- duction in the odds of marriage. ground variables,all explanatory measures To determine if change in marriage has are time-varying proceeded in a similar fashion by race,the last two columns of Table 2 estimate a par- RESULTS allel set of models for black women.Despite important racial differences in the economic The first stage of the analysis investigates and attitudinal contexts of marriage,patterns change over time in the relationship be- of change in marriage are similar by race.As tween economic prospects and marriage for- observed for white women,only the effect mation among women.Beginning with mar- of earnings has changed significantly over riage among white women of the early time,with growth in the importance of earn- baby-boom cohort,shown in the first col- ings for marriage formation observed among umn of Table 2,results indicate that al- black women.Yet several significant racial though high earnings are associated with an differences are noted in the general pattern increase in the odds of marriage,this effect of women's marriage.For example,having is not statistically significant.With respect accumulated fewer than 12 years of school- to education,having at least 16 years of ing (relative to having exactly 12 years)is schooling is associated with 52 percent associated with increased marriage among greater odds (exp[.42])of marriage than white women in both cohorts,but has no sig- having 12 years of schooling.Consistent nificant effects on marriage among black with previous research,current school en- women.6 In explaining a similar finding in rollment is significantly associated with de- lay in marriage among white women of the 6 Although the size of the effect of having 16 early baby-boom cohort-student status is or more years of education is smaller for the late associated with a 58-percent reduction in the cohort of black women than for the early cohort, odds of marriage.This is not surprising the difference between these coefficients is not given the potential incompatibility of the statistically different from zero. This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon,12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and ConditionsTWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 139 marriage formation (e.g., Michael and Tuma 1985), several family background variables are included in the analysis, all measured at the time of first interview. These include dummy variables indicating whether the re￾spondent was living in a two-parent family at age 14, whether the respondent's father (or head of household) was employed in a managerial or professional occupation, as well as a categorical measure of the respondent's mother's educational attain￾ment. Consistent with national trends, data from the National Longitudinal Surveys in￾dicate decline over time in the proportion of young people growing up in two-parent families and some increase in the level of mothers' educational attainment. Finally, as various local-area characteristics have been found to be related to marriage in prior re￾search (e.g., Lichter et al. 1992), dummy variables are included in the models for cur￾rent residence in the South and in a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA). Mean values are assigned in the case of missing data on earnings, and separate indicators of missing data on this and other variables are included in all models, as appropriate (see note 5). With the exception of family back￾ground variables, all explanatory measures are time-varying. RESULTS The first stage of the analysis investigates change over time in the relationship be￾tween economic prospects and marriage for￾mation among women. Beginning with mar￾riage among white women of the early baby-boom cohort, shown in the first col￾umn of Table 2, results indicate that al￾though high earnings are associated with an increase in the odds of marriage, this effect is not statistically significant. With respect to education, having at least 16 years of schooling is associated with 52 percent greater odds (exp[.42]) of marriage than having 12 years of schooling. Consistent with previous research, current school en￾rollment is significantly associated with de￾lay in marriage among white women of the early baby-boom cohort-student status is associated with a 58-percent reduction in the odds of marriage. This is not surprising given the potential incompatibility of the role of student with the responsibilities as￾sociated with marriage and a family (Thornton et al. 1995). No statistically sig￾nificant effects are found for family back￾ground variables in the early cohort, but a positive effect on marriage is associated with living in the South or outside of an SMSA. The focus of the analysis lies in identify￾ing how these effects have changed over time. Compare the first column in Table 2 with the second column, which shows a par￾allel model for white women in the late baby-boom cohort. Although the pattern of effects in the two cohorts of white women is generally similar, the effect of women's earnings on marriage formation increases over time as predicted. The level of women's earnings was not significantly related to marriage in the early baby-boom cohort of white women, yet significantly stronger ef￾fects are observed among white women in the later cohort. Indeed, each unit increase in logged earnings is associated with a 21- percent increase in the odds of marriage for the later cohort of women, while having no earnings is associated with a 32-percent re￾duction in the odds of marriage. To determine if change in marriage has proceeded in a similar fashion by race, the last two columns of Table 2 estimate a par￾allel set of models for black women. Despite important racial differences in the economic and attitudinal contexts of marriage, patterns of change in marriage are similar by race. As observed for white women, only the effect of earnings has changed significantly over time, with growth in the importance of earn￾ings for marriage formation observed among black women. Yet several significant racial differences are noted in the general pattern of women's marriage. For example, having accumulated fewer than 12 years of school￾ing (relative to having exactly 12 years) is associated with increased marriage among white women in both cohorts, but has no sig￾nificant effects on marriage among black women.6 In explaining a similar finding in 6 Although the size of the effect of having 16 or more years of education is smaller for the late cohort of black women than for the early cohort, the difference between these coefficients is not statistically different from zero. This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon, 12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions