114 STATE OF THE WORLDS FORESTS 2003 Another innovation that is becoming more However, it is too early to tell whether these common is the granting of greater financial schemes will be successful utonomy to forest administrations. More independent and, in some cases, self-financing Cost and benefit sharing forest administrations have been launched or are Thirteen countries reported that they had under consideration in several countries developed or implemented various mechanisms to cluding Ghana, Uganda and Zambia. A increase the involvement of local communities in number of countries have also experimented the management of forests, including sharing some with having regional or state forestry offices of the costs and benefits from forest harvesting retain a proportion of the revenue they collect, A few countries have given communities for use in implementing local forestry projects complete control over forest resources, including nd responsibility for collecting revenue(e.g. the Many countries reported problems with access Gambia). In return, they must return a share to treasuries,so greater autonomy in collection and must spend some of the money on fores to agreed budget allocations from State the forest administration and in some cases retention of revenue may improve the management. However, most countries have administration of public finances in the sector. introduced simpler systems, under which the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa The recently completed Forestry Outlook Study for Africa(FOSA cerated by its provides a 20-year perspective and long-termplanning framework distribution, accentuating poverty and therefore dependenceon for development of the sector. The main outputs are an overview natural resources such as forests and five subregional reports that address issues pertaining to Cen- .the high debt burden, declining development assistance, low tral, East, North, Southern and West Africa. These reports identify levels of foreign direct investment and declining terms of trade; driving forces, describe policies and institutional scenarios, assess . emerging opportunities and constraints arising from global- implications for the future of forestry and present possible ways of increasing its contribution to sustainable development. Key find. insufficient diversification of economies and the predominance ings and conclusions are summarized in the following of the informal sector inadequate investment in human resources and technology FACTORS AFFECTING FORESTRY The overall institutional environment is marked by inadequate Factors expected to have an impact on the forest sector over the and rapidly declining capacity in public sector institutions, a poorly next 20 years include: developed market mechanism that is unable to provide a lev the varying pace of political and institutional changes, espe- playing field, and agrowing informal sector which, although critical cially democratization, decentralization and the involvement for livelihoods, is unable to manage resources sustainably In addi tion, most people are not empowered and hence lack the freedom persistent contlict and war, to bring about positive change demographic changes, including an estimated population increase of around 400 million or 50 percent by 2020, as well IMPLICATIONS as such factors as urbanization, population movements and In the absence of any fundamental change, the forestry situation in HIV/AIDS Africa will be marked by2003 FORESTS S’WORLD THE OF STATE 114 more becoming is that innovation Another financial greater of granting the is common More. administrations forest to autonomy financing-self, cases some in, and independent are or launched been have administrations forest ,countries several in consideration under A. Zambia and Uganda, Ghana including experimented also have countries of number offices forestry state or regional having with ,collect they revenue the of proportion a retain projects forestry local implementing in use for .programmes and access with problems reported countries Many State from allocations budget agreed to and collection in autonomy greater so, treasuries the improve may revenue of retention .sector the in finances public of administration these whether tell to early too is it, However .successful be will schemes sharing benefit and Cost had they that reported countries Thirteen to mechanisms various implemented or developed in communities local of involvement the increase some sharing including, forests of management the .harvesting forest from benefits and costs the of communities given have countries few A including, resources forest over control complete the. g.e (revenue collecting for responsibility to share a return must they, return In). Gambia ,cases some in, and administration forest the forest on money the of some spend must have countries most, However. management the which under, systems simpler introduced (FOSA (Africa for Study Outlook Forestry completed recently The framework planning term-long and perspective year-20 a provides overview an are outputs main The. sector the of development for identify reports These. Africa West and Southern, North, East, tral￾Cen to pertaining issues address that reports subregional five and assess, scenarios institutional and policies describe, forces driving of ways possible present and forestry of future the for implications .following the in summarized are conclusions and ings￾find Key. development sustainable to contribution its increasing FORESTRY AFFECTING FACTORS the over sector forest the on impact an have to expected Factors :include years 20 next involvement the and decentralization, democratization cially￾espe, changes institutional and political of pace varying the• ;stakeholders of ;war and conflict persistent• population estimated an including, changes demographic• well as, 2020 by percent 50 or million 400 around of increase and movements population, urbanization as factors such as ;AIDS/HIV unequal very its by exacerbated, income in growth low the• on dependence therefore and poverty accentuating, distribution ;forests as such resources natural low, assistance development declining, burden debt high the• ;trade of terms declining and investment direct foreign of levels ;ization￾global from arising constraints and opportunities emerging• predominance the and economies of diversification insufficient• ;sector informal the of .technology and resources human in investment inadequate• inadequate by marked is environment institutional overall The poorly a, institutions sector public in capacity declining rapidly and level a provide to unable is that mechanism market developed critical although, which sector informal growing a and, field playing freedom the lack hence and empowered not are people most, tion￾addi In. sustainably resources manage to unable is, livelihoods for .change positive about bring to IMPLICATIONS in situation forestry the, change fundamental any of absence the In :by marked be will Africa Africa for Study Outlook Forestry