第36卷第7期 北京科技大学学报 Vol.36 No.7 2014年7月 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Jul.2014 基于云模型的应急决策方法 夏登友2)，钱新明”区，康青春》，段在鹏” 1)北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室，北京1000812)中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系，廊坊065000 ☒通信作者，E-mail:qsemon(@bit.cdu.cn 摘要针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题，提出了一种基于云模型的应急决策方法.首先根据 突发灾害事故应急的目标和特点选择决策指标并建立决策指标集：然后基于决策者的语言值及其对应的数域确定决策指标 的权重值和评价值，利用逆向云发生器算法生成云模型的数字特征：再利用综合云的思想，运用云运算规则，得到各应急方案 的评价云：最后把应急方案的评价云与评价标准云进行相似性比较，综合判断应急方案的评价等级并优选最佳的应急方案. 实例研究表明：该方法充分利用了专家的群体信息，实现了应急方案决策中定性语言和定量评价之间的有效转化，结果更为 直观、合理，便于改善应急决策的客观性和提高应急管理的效率. 关键词应急决策：云计算；评价：不确定性：优选 分类号X913.4 Emergency decision-making method based on the cloud model XIA Deng-you,QIAN Xin-ming,KANG Qing-chun2,DUAN Zai-peng" 1)State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China 2)Department of Fire Command,Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 065000,China Corresponding author,E-mail:qsemon@bit.edu.cn ABSTRACT Aiming at the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the process of emergency disasters and accidents decision-mak- ing,this article introduces a method of emergency decision-making based on the cloud model.Firstly,decision indexes are selected ac- cording to the target and characteristics of rescue in emergency disasters and accidents,and the set of decision indexes is established. Secondly,the weight values and evaluation values of decision indexes are determined according to decision-makers'linguistic values and the relevant range,and the digital characters of the cloud model are produced by backward cloud generator.Thirdly,the evaluation cloud of each alternative is calculated through the arithmetic rules of cloud.Finally,the similarity between each alternative's evalua- tion cloud and standard evaluation cloud is compared to obtain the comment grade of each alternative,and the best alternative is select- ed.Case studies show that the method could take full advantage of expert group information,and make the conversion between qualita- tive description and quantitative indication more effective.The result is objective and feasible,which could improve decision-making objectivity and emergency management effectiveness. KEY WORDS emergency decision-making:cloud computing:evaluation:uncertainty:optimization 危险化学品泄漏、地震、飓风等突发灾害事故经 内、利用部分信息或不完备的信息快速地对应急方 常导致灾难性的后果0.当这些灾害事故发生后， 案进行决策，尤其在灾害事故的早期.因此要对灾 制定、决策并实施科学的应急方案能减少灾害事故 害事故应急方案进行客观、科学的决策，必须解决应 的人员伤亡和经济损失.灾害事故现场的复杂性和 急决策的模糊性和随机性问题. 救援任务的艰巨性，要求应急决策者必须在短时间 近年来，国内外学者在应急决策方法方面进行 收稿日期：2013-一1-14 基金项目：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91024032：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAK13B01) DOI:10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.07.018:http://journals.ustb.edu.cn第 36 卷 第 7 期 2014 年 7 月 北京科技大学学报 Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing Vol． 36 No． 7 Jul． 2014 基于云模型的应急决策方法 夏登友1，2) ，钱新明1) ，康青春2) ，段在鹏1) 1) 北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室，北京 100081 2) 中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系，廊坊 065000  通信作者，E-mail: qsemon@ bit． edu． cn 摘 要 针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题，提出了一种基于云模型的应急决策方法． 首先根据 突发灾害事故应急的目标和特点选择决策指标并建立决策指标集; 然后基于决策者的语言值及其对应的数域确定决策指标 的权重值和评价值，利用逆向云发生器算法生成云模型的数字特征; 再利用综合云的思想，运用云运算规则，得到各应急方案 的评价云; 最后把应急方案的评价云与评价标准云进行相似性比较，综合判断应急方案的评价等级并优选最佳的应急方案． 实例研究表明: 该方法充分利用了专家的群体信息，实现了应急方案决策中定性语言和定量评价之间的有效转化，结果更为 直观、合理，便于改善应急决策的客观性和提高应急管理的效率． 关键词 应急决策; 云计算; 评价; 不确定性; 优选 分类号 X 913. 4 Emergency decision-making method based on the cloud model XIA Deng-you1，2) ，QIAN Xin-ming1)  ，KANG Qing-chun2) ，DUAN Zai-peng1) 1) State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology，Beijing Institute of Technology，Beijing 100081，China 2) Department of Fire Command，Chinese People’s Armed Police Force Academy，Langfang 065000，China  Corresponding author，E-mail: qsemon@ bit． edu． cn ABSTＲACT Aiming at the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the process of emergency disasters and accidents decision-mak￾ing，this article introduces a method of emergency decision-making based on the cloud model． Firstly，decision indexes are selected ac￾cording to the target and characteristics of rescue in emergency disasters and accidents，and the set of decision indexes is established． Secondly，the weight values and evaluation values of decision indexes are determined according to decision-makers’linguistic values and the relevant range，and the digital characters of the cloud model are produced by backward cloud generator． Thirdly，the evaluation cloud of each alternative is calculated through the arithmetic rules of cloud． Finally，the similarity between each alternative’s evalua￾tion cloud and standard evaluation cloud is compared to obtain the comment grade of each alternative，and the best alternative is select￾ed． Case studies show that the method could take full advantage of expert group information，and make the conversion between qualita￾tive description and quantitative indication more effective． The result is objective and feasible，which could improve decision-making objectivity and emergency management effectiveness． KEY WOＲDS emergency decision-making; cloud computing; evaluation; uncertainty; optimization 收稿日期: 2013--11--14 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目( 91024032) ; “十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目( 2012BAK13B01) DOI: 10． 13374 /j． issn1001--053x． 2014． 07． 018; http: / /journals． ustb． edu． cn 危险化学品泄漏、地震、飓风等突发灾害事故经 常导致灾难性的后果［1］． 当这些灾害事故发生后， 制定、决策并实施科学的应急方案能减少灾害事故 的人员伤亡和经济损失． 灾害事故现场的复杂性和 救援任务的艰巨性，要求应急决策者必须在短时间 内、利用部分信息或不完备的信息快速地对应急方 案进行决策，尤其在灾害事故的早期． 因此要对灾 害事故应急方案进行客观、科学的决策，必须解决应 急决策的模糊性和随机性问题． 近年来，国内外学者在应急决策方法方面进行