中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 onsumption Rural:1978-996.7%:52-77-1.8% Urban:1978-996.4%:52-77-34% 全国:78-2001,71% 1. The problems i.1997年以前," vigor/sterility" cycle and recent deflation Liberalization leads to vigor Investment rush and economic boom gor leads to chaos, overheating, inflation Credit expansion, inflation Chaos leads to retrenchment Austerity program Retrenchment leads to sterility Sterility leads to liberalization 1998年以后通货紧缩 ii. Weak financial sector 银行呆坏帐 股市投机、做庄、泡沫 li1. Corruption SOE 6中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 6 Consumption Rural: 1978-99, 6.7%;52-77--1.8%. Urban: 1978-99 6.4%;52-77--3.4% 全国：78－2001，7.1％ 1. The problems: i. 1997 年以前,"vigor/sterility" cycle and recent deflation Liberalization leads to vigor Investment rush and economic boom Vigor leads to chaos, overheating, inflation Credit expansion, inflation Chaos leads to retrenchment Austerity program Retrenchment leads to sterility Sterility leads to liberalization 1998 年以后通货紧缩 ii.Weak financialsector 银行呆坏帐 股市投机、做庄、泡沫 iii. Corruption iv. SOEs