中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 第十一讲:城市改革的进展和问题 (《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第13讲一上、下) O. Review 1. The problems to be sol A. Incentive B. Coordination C. Structure Imbalance 2. The approaches A. Before 1978 l) Structure中央调整农轻重比例 2)协调-改变条、块管理,但一放就活,一活就乱 3)激励:学雷锋,但不能每人都成雷峰 B. After 1978 1)结构_中央调整农轻重比例 2)协调-改变条、块管理,但一放就活,一活就乱 3)激励:强调物质利益 3. The enterprise reform Approach DIncreasing autonomy Profit sharing and partial autonomy in production and marketing decision; enterprises were required to meet the quota obligations (1979)
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 1 第十一讲：城市改革的进展和问题 （《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第 13 讲－上、下） O. Review 1. The problems to be solved A. Incentive B. Coordination C. Structure Imbalance 2. The approaches A. Before 1978 1) Structure—中央调整农轻重比例 2) 协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱 3) 激励：学雷锋，但不能每人都成雷峰 B. After 1978 1）结构—中央调整农轻重比例 2）协调-改变条、块管理，但一放就活，一活就乱 3）激励：强调物质利益 3. The enterprise reform Approach: I) Increasing autonomy A. Profit sharing and partial autonomy in production and marketing decision; enterprises were required to meet the quota obligations. (1979)
中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 Problem: quota evasion, managerial discretion fiscal revenue B Separating Profit and tax (1983) Problem: hard to define costs due to weak auditing (1987) DEfining prop Modern corporation system B Stock-holding(1991) Evaluation Incentive and efficiency increase but profitability and fiscal revenue decline 4. Resource Allocation System Reform A. Approach: Single Track to dual-track S Single rket track Enterprise autonomy and the emergence of market track B. Procedures Materials 1979-84, allowing outside quota production ng 1984-, reducing compulsory quota Foreign exchange management Expandregional autonomy Reduce compulsory plan andre lace it with
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 2 Problem: quota evasion, managerial discretion, declining fiscal revenue. B. Separating Profit and tax. (1983) Problem: hard to define costs due to weak auditing. C. Contract (1987) II) Defining property rights A. Modern corporation system B. Stock-holding (1991) Evaluation: Incentive and efficiency increase but profitability and fiscal revenue decline. 4. Resource Allocation System Reform A. Approach: Single Track to dual-track System, to Single market track Enterprise autonomy and the emergence of market track B. Procedures: Materials: 1979-84, allowing outside quota production and marketing 1984-, reducing compulsory quota Foreign exchange management: Expand regional autonomy Reduce compulsory plan and replace it with
中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 indicative plan Change single-item trading company to multiple-item trading company Foreign exchange retention Foreign Exchange Swap Financial system a)建立银行体系 *People's bank was the sole bank before 1979 *Agriculture Bank of China, 1979 *Setting Bank of China branches, 1979 "Bank of Industry and Commerce and Peoples nsurance company, 1984 *Peoples Bank of Construction, 1985 b)存贷挂钩, c)发展非银行金融机构 d)建立资本市场: Shanghai and Shenzhen Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, 1990 The financial system is still in the dual-track stage and until under the states firm control 评估:非国有部门的发展和产业结构的调整 Macro policy reform
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 3 indicative plan Change single-item trading company to multiple-item trading company Foreign exchange retention Foreign Exchange Swap Financial system a) 建立银行体系 *People’s bank was the sole bank before 1979 *Agriculture Bank of China, 1979 *Setting Bank of China branches, 1979 *Bank of Industry and Commerce and People’s insurance company, 1984 *People’s Bank of Construction, 1985 b) 存贷挂钩， c) 发展非银行金融机构 d) 建立资本市场: Shanghai and Shenzhen Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, 1990 The financial system is still in the dual-track stage and until under the state’s firm control. 评估: 非国有部门的发展和产业结构的调整 . 5. Macro policy reform
中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 Form Dual track to market track Material price: plan price barter, dual price, market price Exchange rate: official rate, swap market rate nterest rate: Adjustment 6. The logic of crossing the river by grop ing the stone 7. The achievements i Incentive and productivity 1980-88 State sector Output 8.5 TFP 2.4 Non-state sector Output 16.9 TFP 4.6 1953-78 Output 10.1 TFP 0.53(-1.0) 11) Investment Table 6.6, page 188 Within Budget's share. 1981--28.1%.1994--3.2% 11) Production and output structure Table 6.3, page 176 SOEs' share1978-76%,1994-34.1%, comparative advantage TVE: employment--94--120.2 million(state--1 12 1 m)
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 4 Form Dual track to market track Material price: plan price, barter, dual price, market price Exchange rate: official rate, swap market rate Interest rate: Adjustment 6. The logic of crossing the river by groping the stone. 7. The achievements: i) Incentive and productivity 1980-88 State sector Output 8.5 TFP 2.4 Non-state sector Output 16.9 TFP 4.6 1953-78 Output 10.1 TFP 0.53 (-1.0) ii) Investment Table 6.6, page 188 Within Budget's share, 1981--28.1%, 1994--3.2%. ii) Production and output structure Table 6.3, page 176. SOEs' share 1978--77.6%, 1994-34.1%, comparative advantage TVE: employment--94--120.2 million (state--112.1 m)
中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 per capita cap ital-I Industrial output--78, 9.3: 94--42% export-87,11%,93-35% i11Outward--trade dependentratio Table6.5, p 187 1978199419972001 Export 4.7 23.2 20.3 23 Dependent 9.9 45436.1 21 iv) Growthrate GDP growth rate 1952-1977, 5.7% per annual Page 4, table 1.1 Rapid Economic Growth 1980-90.11990-99 China 10210.7 Low Income 4.3 2.4 Middle Income 2.8 3.5 High Income 3.2 2.4 2.5 Source: World development report2000/1, pp. 294-5 v) Income growth Rural population:1978-2001,7.3%;52-78,2.38% Urban population: 1978-2001, 6.4%0, 52-78
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 5 per capita capital-1/4. Industrial output--78, 9.3; 94--42% export--87, 11%, 93--35% iii) Outward--trade dependent ratio Table 6.5, p. 187 1978 1994 1997 2001 Export 4.7 23.2 20.3 23 Dependent 9.9 45.4 36.1 21 iv) Growth rate: GDP growth rate 1952-1977, 5.7% per annual. Page 4, table 1.1 Rapid Economic Growth 1980-90.1 1990-99 China 10.2 10.7 Low Income 4.3 2.4 Middle Income 2.8 3.5 High Income 3.2 2.4 World 3.1 2.5 Source: World Development Report2000/1, pp. 294-5 v) Income growth Rural population: 1978-2001, 7.3%;52-78, 2.38%. Urban population: 1978-2001, 6.4%; 52-78
中国经济专题-2003年春第十一讲 onsumption Rural:1978-996.7%:52-77-1.8% Urban:1978-996.4%:52-77-34% 全国:78-2001,71% 1. The problems i.1997年以前," vigor/sterility" cycle and recent deflation Liberalization leads to vigor Investment rush and economic boom gor leads to chaos, overheating, inflation Credit expansion, inflation Chaos leads to retrenchment Austerity program Retrenchment leads to sterility Sterility leads to liberalization 1998年以后通货紧缩 ii. Weak financial sector 银行呆坏帐 股市投机、做庄、泡沫 li1. Corruption SOE 6
中国经济专题-2003 年春-第十一讲 6 Consumption Rural: 1978-99, 6.7%;52-77--1.8%. Urban: 1978-99 6.4%;52-77--3.4% 全国：78－2001，7.1％ 1. The problems: i. 1997 年以前,"vigor/sterility" cycle and recent deflation Liberalization leads to vigor Investment rush and economic boom Vigor leads to chaos, overheating, inflation Credit expansion, inflation Chaos leads to retrenchment Austerity program Retrenchment leads to sterility Sterility leads to liberalization 1998 年以后通货紧缩 ii.Weak financialsector 银行呆坏帐 股市投机、做庄、泡沫 iii. Corruption iv. SOEs
