中国经济专题-2004年春第六讲 第六讲:如何来评价传统的赶超战略? (《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第8讲一上) 2. The performance ofthe leap-forward strategy 1. The rate of accumulation(table3. 1) Ist FYP(53-57) 24.2 2 ndfYP(58-62) 30.8 63-65 22.7 3 rflP(66-70) 26.3 4th (71-75) 33.0 2. The structure of investment(table 3.2) A H I st fyp 6.4 36.2 50.3 2nd FYP 11.3 6.4 54.0 28.3 63-65 17.6 3.9 45.9 32.6 3rdFYP 10.7 4.4 51.1 33.8 4th 5.8 49.6 34.8 3. The sector weight(table 3. 3) 525762657075 57.746.848146.240437.8 Indu 19.528332.836441.046.0 Other 22.824.519217418.616.2
中国经济专题-2004 年春-第六讲 1 第六讲：如何来评价传统的赶超战略? （《中国经济专题》教学影音资料第 8 讲－上） 2. The performance of the leap-forward strategy. 1. The rate of accumulation (table 3.1). 1st FYP (53-57) 24.2 2nd FYP (58-62) 30.8 63-65 22.7 3rd FYP (66-70) 26.3 4th (71-75) 33.0 2. The structure of investment (table 3.2) A L H O 1st FYP 7.1 6.4 36.2 50.3 2nd FYP 11.3 6.4 54.0 28.3 63-65 17.6 3.9 45.9 32.6 3rd FYP 10.7 4.4 51.1 33.8 4th 9.8 5.8 49.6 34.8 3. The sector weight (table 3.3) 52 57 62 65 70 75 Agri. 57.7 46.8 48.1 46.2 40.4 37.8 Indu. 19.5 28.3 32.8 36.4 41.0 46.0 Other 22.8 24.5 19.2 17.4 18.6 16.2
中国经济专题-2004年春第六讲 4. The growth rate(table 3. 1)--GDP Ist FYP(53-57) 2 nd fYp(58-62) -2.2 63-65 14.9 3 rdFYP(66-70) 6.9 4th (71-75) 53-78 6.0 5. Sector weight, international comparison (fig 3. 1) The manufacturing sector is larger than that of a typical middle income country. Figure 3.1 3. The problem ofthe leap-forward strategy 1. Structural distortion. Employment structure. (table 3.4) why Agr Other 6.0 10.5 5781.2 5.9 129 6581.6 6.4 12.0 7873.3 12.5 14.2 b Urbanization (table3. 5) 10 200 300 400 500 22.0 36.2 43.9 49.0 52.7 Chnery and Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950-70 China in 1952 12.5
中国经济专题-2004 年春-第六讲 2 4. The growth rate (table 3.1)--GDP 1st FYP (53-57) 9.1 2nd FYP (58-62) -2.2 63-65 14.9 3rd FYP (66-70) 6.9 4th (71-75) 5.5 53-78 6.0 5. Sector weight, international comparison. (fig. 3.1) The manufacturing sector is larger than that of a typical middle income country. Figure 3.1. 3. The problem of the leap-forward strategy 1. Structural distortiona. Employment structure. (table 3.4) why? Agr. Ind. Other 52 83.5 6.0 10.5 57 81.2 5.9 12.9 65 81.6 6.4 12.0 78 73.3 12.5 14.2 b. Urbanization (table 3.5) 100 200 300 400 500 22.0 36.2 43.9 49.0 52.7 Chnery and Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950-70. China in 1952 12.5
中国经济专题-2004年春第六讲 in1980194 2. Incentive problem a Share of working capital in total capital(table 3.9) Ch 32.7 279 Korea 1963 7.0 1953 England 1970 12.6 USSR 1972 29.5 Source: World Bank. 1984. China Economic Structure in International b incentive(table 3.8) The Production ofGDP (in 1980 dollars) ner rgy St Trans k Coal/ T Ton km/ USS M. USS USS Ch 2.90 127.3 3.10 98.4 Korea 1.12 113.8 0.47 Brazil 0.88 57.1 140 0.51 63.0 0.41 france 0.45 30.9
中国经济专题-2004 年春-第六讲 3 in 1980 19.4 2. Incentive problem a. Share of working capital in total capital (table 3.9). China 1981 32.7 India 1979 27.9 Korea 1963 7.0 Japan 1953 19.9 England 1970 12.6 USSR 1972 29.5 Source: World Bank, 1984, China Economic Structure in International Perspective. b. incentive (table 3.8). The Production of GDP (in 1980 dollars) Energy Steal Trans k. Coal/ Ton/ Ton.km/ US$ M.US$ US$ China 2.90 127.3 3.10 India 1.77 98.4 1.67 Korea 1.12 113.8 0.47 Brazil 0.88 57.1 1.40 Japan 0.51 63.0 0.41 France 0.45 30.9
中国经济专题-2004年春第六讲 US 1.05 80 England 0.57 30.0 German 0.49 43.7 Source: World Bank. 1984. China Economic Structure in International Perspective 3. The result a Low Total Factor Productivity Growth(Table 3.10) TFP Growth Rate TFP growth in per annum in gdP growth China 1952-810.53(-1.0)8(-17) 1952-750.3(-1.1)5(-18) 1975-811.0(-0.3)17(-5) Brazil 1950-603.7 54 1955-702.1 34 1966-741.6 22 orea 1955-602.0 47 1955-705.0 57 1960-734.1 42 Spain 1959655.0 44 1952-713.8 1952-645.1 53
中国经济专题-2004 年春-第六讲 4 US 1.05 44.8 1.80 England 0.57 30.0 German 0.49 43.7 Source: World Bank, 1984, China Economic Structure in International Perspective. 3. The result a. Low Total Factor Productivity Growth (Table 3.10) TFP Growth Rate TFP growth in per annum in GDP growth China: 1952-81 0.53 (-1.0) 8 (-17) 1952-75 0.3 (-1.1) 5 (-18) 1975-81 1.0 (-0.3) 17 (-5) Brazil: 1950-60 3.7 54 1955-70 2.1 34 1966-74 1.6 22 Korea: 1955-60 2.0 47 1955-70 5.0 57 1960-73 4.1 42 Spain 1959-65 5.0 44 Japan: 1952-71 3.8 38 1952-64 5.1 53 1966-73 4.5 41
中国经济专题-2004年春第六讲 US 1947-6014 1960-731.3 USSR 1950-601.9 32 1960-701.5 29 1960-701.5 1970-750.1 Average of 19 LDC 2.0 Average ofl2 market economies 2.7 b. Low living standard index(table 3.6) Consumption Nation rur urban 1952 100 100 100 100 1957 153.0 1229 117.0 126.3 1978 453.4 177.0 157.6 212.6
中国经济专题-2004 年春-第六讲 5 US: 1947-60 1.4 38 1960-73 1.3 30 USSR 1950-60 1.9 32 1960-70 1.5 29 1960-70 1.5 29 1970-75 0.1 3 Average of 19 LDCs 2.0 31 Average of12 market economies 2.7 49 b. Low living standard index (table 3.6). Consumption NI Nation rural urban 1952 100 100 100 100 1957 153.0 122.9 117.0 126.3 1978 453.4 177.0 157.6 212.6