中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 第二讲:李约瑟之谜和中国经济由盛而衰的原因 中国在前现代社会的成就 Angus Maddison. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy l820-1992.一直到19世纪中叶,中国是全世界最大的经济 2 技术:在工业革命以前的1000多年的时间里中国是世界 上科技最先进的国家。( Francis bacon认为使欧洲从黑暗的中世纪 转变为现代世纪的发明是纸张、印刷术、火药和指南针,但是他 不知道这些都是中国发明的)( Francis bacon(1561626) The most influential and versatile English writer of the 17th century, Francis Bacon wrote on a broad range of law. hist nd politics. Bacon helped usher the era of modern scientific thought by developing a reasoning process called induction Induction is the process by which general conclusions are drawn from particular situations. 中国是世界上最工业化的国家,在11世纪时年产15万顿 铁,其产量为欧洲的6倍 社会经济制度:土地私有,高度的社会分工,劳动力自由 流动,高效运行的要素市场和产品市场 《史记。货殖列传》范蠡(陶朱公) “六岁穰,六岁旱,十二岁一大饥”,“论其有余 不足,则知贵贱,贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵。 贵出如粪土,贱取如珠玉” 贵出如粪土,贱取如珠玉一一投机的原则 论其有余不足,则知贵贱一一价格由市场的供给 和需求决定
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 1 第二讲：李约瑟之谜和中国经济由盛而衰的原因 一. 中国在前现代社会的成就 . 1． Angus Maddison. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. 一直到 19 世纪中叶，中国是全世界最大的经济 2． 技术：在工业革命以前的 1000 多年的时间里中国是世界 上科技最先进的国家。(Francis Bacon 认为使欧洲从黑暗的中世纪 转变为现代世纪的发明是纸张、印刷术、火药和指南针，但是他 不知道这些都是中国发明的)（Francis Bacon (1561-1626) The most influential and versatile English writer of the 17th century, Francis Bacon wrote on a broad range of topics, including ethics, philosophy, science, law, history, and politics. Bacon helped usher in the era of modern scientific thought by developing a reasoning process called induction. Induction is the process by which general conclusions are drawn from particular situations.） 3． 中国是世界上最工业化的国家，在 11 世纪时年产 15 万顿 铁，其产量为欧洲的 6 倍。 4． 社会经济制度: 土地私有，高度的社会分工，劳动力自由 流动，高效运行的要素市场和产品市场 《史记。货殖列传》范蠡（陶朱公） “六岁穰，六岁旱，十二岁一大饥”，“论其有余 不足，则知贵贱，贵上极则反贱，贱下极则反贵。 贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉” 贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉－－投机的原则 论其有余不足，则知贵贱――价格由市场的供给 和需求决定
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 贵上极则反贱,贱下极则反贵一一生产者按市场 的价格来决定生产 在前现代社会中国是最富有、最城市化的国家 公元0年,中国的汉朝和欧洲的罗马帝国处于同一发展水 平 公元1000年,中国远远领先于西方 清明上河图 望海潮 柳永 东南形胜,三吴都会,钱塘自古繁华。烟柳画桥,风帘翠幕, 参差十万人家。云树绕堤沙,怒涛卷霜雪,天堑无涯。市列珠玑,户 盈罗绮,竞豪奢 重湖叠巘凊嘉,有三秋桂子,十里荷花。羌管弄晴,菱歌泛夜 嬉嬉钓叟莲娃。千骑拥髙牙,乘醉听箫鼓,吟赏烟霞。异日图将好景, 归去凤池夸 Marco Polo's description about Su-chou and Hang-chou, p 270.(威尼斯人,1254-1324) Su-chou is so large that it measures about forty miles in circumference. It has so many inhabitants that one could not reckon their number " and Hang-chou"without doubt the inest and most splendid city in the world,. anyone seeing
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 2 贵上极则反贱，贱下极则反贵――生产者按市场 的价格来决定生产 5． 在前现代社会中国是最富有、最城市化的国家. 公元0年, 中国的汉朝和欧洲的罗马帝国处于同一发展水 平 公元 1000 年, 中国远远领先于西方. 清明上河图 望海潮 柳永 东南形胜，三吴都会，钱塘自古繁华。烟柳画桥，风帘翠幕， 参差十万人家。云树绕堤沙，怒涛卷霜雪，天堑无涯。市列珠玑，户 盈罗绮，竞豪奢。 重湖叠巘清嘉，有三秋桂子，十里荷花。羌管弄晴，菱歌泛夜， 嬉嬉钓叟莲娃。千骑拥高牙，乘醉听箫鼓，吟赏烟霞。异日图将好景， 归去凤池夸. Marco Polo's description about Su-chou and Hang-chou, p. 270.（威尼斯人，1254-1324） “Su-chou is so large that it measures about forty miles in circumference. It has so many inhabitants that one could not reckon their number." and Hang-chou "without doubt the finest and most splendid city in the world, ... anyone seeing
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 such a mult itude would believe it a stark impossibility that food could be found to fill so many mouths the West in the dark Ages was essentially agrarian and, in comparison with China, was poorer and under-developed ( Carlo M. Cipolla, Beofre the Industrial Revolution European Society and economy. 1000-1700. New York and London: W.W. Norton& Company. 171) as late as 1776. Adam Smith described China has been long one of the richest, that is, one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most industrious, and most populous countries in the world. (p. 71)and China is a much richer country than any part of Europe,. "(p. 189)(Adam Smith, An inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, (first Modern Library edition), New York: Random House, 1937 "It seems however, to have been long stationary. Marco Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago describes its cultivation, industry, and populousness, almost in the same terms in which they are described by travelers in the present times. It had perhaps, even long before this time
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 3 such a multitude would believe it a stark impossibility that food could be found to fill so many mouths.” "the West in the Dark Ages was essentially agrarian and, in comparison with China, was poorer and under-developed." (Carlo M. Cipolla, Beofre the Industrial Revolution European Society and Economy, 1000-1700, New York and London: W.W. Norton & Company p. 171). As late as 1776, Adam Smith described “China has been long one of the richest, that is, one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most industrious, and most populous countries in the world.” (p. 71) and “China is a much richer country than any part of Europe, …" (p.189) (Adam Smith, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, (first Modern Library Edition), New York: Random House, 1937. “It seems, however, to have been long stationary. Marco Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago, describes its cultivation, industry, and populousness, almost in the same terms in which they are described by travelers in the present times. It had perhaps, even long before this time
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 acquiring that full complement of riches which the nature of its laws and institutions permits to acquire. (Adam Smith, p 71) 中国落后于西方只是在工业革命以后的事 中国用铁犁时,欧洲用木犁,当欧洲用钢犁时,中国还用铁 在14世纪时,中国已经达到了全面科学革命和工业革命 的阌值( thresholdlevel) 为什么中国没有出现工业革命而变为落后? 李约瑟之谜 为何在前现代社会中国在科学和技术上摇摇领先于其他文明 为何在现代中国不再领先? 对这个问题的回答对预测中国在未来是否能复兴至关重要 二.现有的解释 有几个被普遍接受的假说大部分的假说,可以解释中国现代为何落后 但不能解释为何过去先进或是能解释过去为何先进但不能解释现代 落后 1.文化决定论 a)儒家文化, Marx Webb,“新教伦理与资本主义精神
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 4 acquiring that full complement of riches which the nature of its laws and institutions permits to acquire.” (Adam Smith, p. 71). 中国落后于西方只是在工业革命以后的事。 中国用铁犁时,欧洲用木犁,当欧洲用钢犁时,中国还用铁 犁 在 14 世纪时，中国已经达到了全面科学革命和工业革命 的阀值（threshold level）. 为什么中国没有出现工业革命而变为落后? 李约瑟之谜: 为何在前现代社会中国在科学和技术上摇摇领先于其他文明? 为何在现代中国不再领先? 对这个问题的回答对预测中国在未来是否能复兴至关重要. 二. 现有的解释 有几个被普遍接受的假说:大部分的假说,可以解释中国现代为何落后, 但不能解释为何过去先进,或是能解释过去为何先进,但不能解释现代 落后 1. 文化决定论 a) 儒家文化，Marx Webb, “新教伦理与资本主义精神
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 b)五四运动,打倒吃人的礼教 c)文化难于改变 2.国家竞争论一中国的大一统和欧洲国家的竞争 3.专利制度(此说不合适等谈到科学革命的决定作用再解释 上述假说的问题 目前较有影响的假说中,可以分为需求失败论,和供给失败论。 需求失败论:高水平均衡理论( Mark Elvin: The pattern of china's Past) 在前现代社会中国拥有先进的“现代”制度,导致较快的技术 发明和传播,由于中国人的传宗接代观念鼓励早婚、早育和多 生多育,以至人均土地不断下降 机制一:劳动力价格低,抑制对劳动节约技术的需求.(赵岗) 评论:人口增加劳动力的价格会下降只在技术不变迁(或是变 迁极端慢时)才成立,假如技术变迁的速度快,劳动力增加, 劳动力的价格也会不断提高,那么,对替代劳动力的技术也会 有需求。只有在技术不变迁时,劳动力不断增加,有些劳动力 替代的技术才会被放置不用。所以,这个理论要解释技术为何 不变迁,却先假定了技术不变迁,在内部逻辑上有问题。(例 如日本,四小龙,中国沿海在改革开放以后的情况) 机制二:随着人口增加,人均耕地下降,剩余越来越少。当新
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 5 b) 五四运动, 打倒吃人的礼教 c) 文化难于改变 2. 国家竞争论—中国的大一统和欧洲国家的竞争 3. 专利制度(此说不合适,等谈到科学革命的决定作用再解释) 上述假说的问题 目前较有影响的假说中，可以分为需求失败论，和供给失败论。 需求失败论: 高水平均衡理论（Mark Elvin：The Pattern of China’s Past）. 在前现代社会中国拥有先进的“现代” 制度，导致较快的技术 发明和传播，由于中国人的传宗接代观念鼓励早婚、早育和多 生多育，以至人均土地不断下降. 机制一: 劳动力价格低，抑制对劳动节约技术的需求. (赵岗). 评论: 人口增加劳动力的价格会下降只在技术不变迁（或是变 迁极端慢时）才成立, 假如技术变迁的速度快，劳动力增加， 劳动力的价格也会不断提高，那么，对替代劳动力的技术也会 有需求。只有在技术不变迁时，劳动力不断增加，有些劳动力 替代的技术才会被放置不用。所以，这个理论要解释技术为何 不变迁，却先假定了技术不变迁，在内部逻辑上有问题。 (例 如日本，四小龙，中国沿海在改革开放以后的情况)。 机制二: 随着人口增加，人均耕地下降，剩余越来越少。当新
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 技术出现时,没有足够的剩余来购买新技术 (Mark evin, Anthony Tang) 评论:剩余的多少除决定于劳均耕地的水平外,还决定于技术 水平,只有在技术不变时(或变化慢于劳动力增加的速度时), 劳动力增加才会导致剩余的不断减少所以,这个机制同样在内 部逻辑上是有问题。 经验上的问题 假说1: figure 1. table 1. Buck's survey. 1=i 2: figure 1. table 1. Riskin's estimate, first five-year plan able 1 Per capita Acreage of cultivated Land, A.D. 2-1887 Cultivated land P。pu1 ation Per capita Year nillion mu) Year (million) (mu) 105 10.09 146 507 10.78 976 255 32 7.96 1072 s 1109 121 5.50 1393 1391 793 200 3.96 165 7.92 1776 3.3 1887 1,154 1848 Source: Kang chao. Man and Land in Chinese history: An Economic Analysis. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1986, p. 89 6
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 6 技术出现时，没有足够的剩余来购买新技术(Mark Evlin, Anthony Tang) 评论: 剩余的多少除决定于劳均耕地的水平外，还决定于技术 水平，只有在技术不变时（或变化慢于劳动力增加的速度时）， 劳动力增加才会导致剩余的不断减少.所以，这个机制同样在内 部逻辑上是有问题。 经验上的问题: 假说 1: figure 1. table 1. Buck's survey. 假说 2: figure 1. table 1. Riskin's estimate, first five-year plan. A. Table 1 Per capita Acreage of Cultivated Land, A.D. 2-1887 _________________________________________________________________________ Cultivated land Population Per capita Amount Number acreage Year (million mu) Year (million) (mu) _________________________________________________________________________ 2 571 2 59 9.67 105 535 105 53 10.09 146 507 146 47 10.78 976 255 961 32 7.96 1072 666 1109 121 5.50 1393 522 1391 60 8.70 1581 793 1592 200 3.96 1662 570 1657 72 7.92 1784 886 1776 268 3.30 1812 943 1800 295 3.19 1887 1,154 1848 426 2.70 _________________________________________________________________________ Source: Kang Chao, Man and Land in Chinese History: An Economic Analysis. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1986, p. 89
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 7
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 Continental Euro 06 B. C -A.D. 220 64 .自 in China (in million) 8
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 8 Figure 1: Population in China (in million)
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 三. Lin hypothesis ) What is industrial revolution Conventional definition: Inventions of steam engine, mechanisation of textile industry, and exploitation of iron and coal Lin' s definition: sustained high and accelerated rate of technological innovation 2). Lins hypothesis: different way of technological invention and discovery. A). Technology: a body of knowledge about how to combine a set of inputs for producing a certain product B)Technological distributioncurve C)Invention: Finding a technology with higher productivity than the productiv ity of current-used technology D) Invention possibility curve E)移动技术发明可能曲线的因素:个人天赋,发明用的 物资,科学知识. F)发现新技术的机制:尝试错误( Trial and Error),例如 超导 E)技术发明的范式 前现代社会:经验 现代:试验、以科学为基础的试验
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 9 三. Lin hypothesis: 1). What is industrial revolution. Conventional definition: Inventions of steam engine, mechanisation of textile industry, and exploitation of iron and coal. Lin's definition: sustained high and accelerated rate of technological innovation. 2). Lin's hypothesis: different way of technological invention and discovery. A). Technology: a body of knowledge about how to combine a set of inputs for producing a certain product. B) Technological distribution curve. C) Invention: Finding a technology with higher productivity than the productivity of current-used technology. D) Invention possibility curve. E）移动技术发明可能曲线的因素：个人天赋，发明用的 物资，科学知识. F) 发现新技术的机制：尝试错误（Trial and Error）,例如： 超导 E) 技术发明的范式: 前现代社会: 经验 现代: 试验、以科学为基础的试验
中国经济专题讲义-2004年春季第2讲 h) Three testable hypotheses a The likelihood of inventing a better technology is a positive function ofthe number oftrials The probability of inventing a better technology is a negative function of the highest productiv ity of previous draws---the level of existing technology ncreases in the stock of scientific knowledge and improvements in the quality of available materials raise an inventor's likelihood of finding a better technology 1Lin's hypothesis: China had advantage in the pre-modern times because of its large population. After the scientific revolution in the sixteenth century, Europe had advantages because of i)starting to use experiment and ii) later on, using science to release the bottleneck of invention. (Science and technology initially were separated) 4. Why a Scientific Revolution did not occur in China 1. What is a Scientific Revolution? 2. Primitive science: casual observation--China had an advantage 3. Modern science: mathematization of hypothesis about the nature
中国经济专题讲义－2004 年春季-第 2 讲 10 h) Three testable hypotheses: ◼ The likelihood of inventing a better technology is a positive function of the number of trials. ◼ The probability of inventing a better technology is a negative function of the highest productivity of previous draws---the level of existing technology. ◼ Increases in the stock of scientific knowledge and improvements in the quality of available materials raise an inventor's likelihood of finding a better technology. i) Lin's hypothesis: China had advantage in the pre-modern times because of its large population. After the scientific revolution in the sixteenth century, Europe had advantages, because of i) starting to use experiment and ii) later on, using science to release the bottleneck of invention. (Science and technology initially were separated). 4. Why a Scientific Revolution did not occur in China 1. What is a Scientific Revolution? 2. Primitive science: casual observation--China had an advantage. 3. Modern science: mathematization of hypothesis about the nature