Katerina Tertytchnaya et al. FIGURE 2.Personal remittances received(as percentage of GDP)in Kyrgyzstan,2002-2015 30 20 10 20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Notes:The figure shows fluctuations in the share of remittances received in Kyrgyzstan as a percentage of the country's GDP in the 2002-2015 period.Source:World Bank,World Development Indicators. This led to an appreciating and overvalued Som-Ruble joyed a period of relative stability as its new parlia- rate and given 90 percent of remittances to Kyrgyzs- mentary system began to function.A new election held tan come from Russia,this had a deleterious effect on in 2011 brought president Atambayev to power with remittance inflows(Slay 2015).However,this occurred an impressive 63 percent of the vote.Although over after the period covered by our panel(2010-2013).In the 2010-2012 period the Kyrgyz parliament produced fact,during the period of our panel remittance inflows four different ruling coalitions,reforms to combat cor- actually increased.What is more,the increasing use of ruption were introduced.The level of corruption in technology,such as mobile and internet transfers,is Kyrgyzstan declined significantly since the ousting of making it even more difficult for governments to ex- former president Bakiyev(Freedom House 2014).The ert control over remittance inflows(Vieira 2017).As stable growth that the Kyrgyz economy experienced such,we think it reasonable to suggest that remittances since 2010,and political renewal in the years covered are largely exogenous in the case of Kyrgyzstan as the in the surveys,stacks the deck against finding declines Kyrgyz government was not actively manipulating or in incumbent trust and support over the 2010 to 2013 controlling remittance inflows. period under investigation here. The period covered in the LiK surveys captures im- portant variation in political developments.In 2010, President Bakiyev was violently overthrown and vi- THE LIFE IN KYRGYZSTAN SURVEYS cious inter-ethnic clashes escalated across the country. The first part of the analysis relies on panel survey data Violent riots in the spring of 2010 were associated with from the 2010,2011,2012 and 2013 waves of the LiK a collapse in trust in government institutions.Accord- survey (Bruck et al.2014).The survey tracks the same ing to evidence from the 2010 LiTS survey,Kyrgyzs- 3,000 households in all seven Kyrgyz oblasts(regions) tan ranked in the bottom ten of transition countries in and the two cities of Bishkek and Osh.The data are terms of trust in the President and the national gov- representative at both the national and regional level. ernment(EBRD 2010,83).Yet,during the same year, 81.6 percent of all 3000 households identified in the Kyrgyzstan adopted a new constitution,and held the original sample in 2010 participated in all four waves. most free and fair election contest that took place in We restrict our sample to adults only (for more infor- Central Asia on record (Freedom House 2010).The mation on the LiK survey see section A1 of the SI). new leadership undertook reforms to liberalize the po- In 2010,10.1 percent of households received financial litical system,combat corruption,and the country en- remittances,12.3 percent in 2011,12.5 percent in 2012 764Katerina Tertytchnaya et al. FIGURE 2. Personal remittances received (as percentage of GDP) in Kyrgyzstan, 2002 – 2015 Notes: The figure shows fluctuations in the share of remittances received in Kyrgyzstan as a percentage of the country’s GDP in the 2002–2015 period. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. This led to an appreciating and overvalued Som-Ruble rate and given 90 percent of remittances to Kyrgyzs￾tan come from Russia, this had a deleterious effect on remittance inflows (Slay 2015). However, this occurred after the period covered by our panel (2010-2013). In fact, during the period of our panel remittance inflows actually increased. What is more, the increasing use of technology, such as mobile and internet transfers, is making it even more difficult for governments to ex￾ert control over remittance inflows (Vieira 2017). As such, we think it reasonable to suggest that remittances are largely exogenous in the case of Kyrgyzstan as the Kyrgyz government was not actively manipulating or controlling remittance inflows. The period covered in the LiK surveys captures im￾portant variation in political developments. In 2010, President Bakiyev was violently overthrown and vi￾cious inter-ethnic clashes escalated across the country. Violent riots in the spring of 2010 were associated with a collapse in trust in government institutions. Accord￾ing to evidence from the 2010 LiTS survey, Kyrgyzs￾tan ranked in the bottom ten of transition countries in terms of trust in the President and the national gov￾ernment (EBRD 2010, 83). Yet, during the same year, Kyrgyzstan adopted a new constitution, and held the most free and fair election contest that took place in Central Asia on record (Freedom House 2010). The new leadership undertook reforms to liberalize the po￾litical system, combat corruption, and the country en￾joyed a period of relative stability as its new parlia￾mentary system began to function. A new election held in 2011 brought president Atambayev to power with an impressive 63 percent of the vote. Although over the 2010–2012 period the Kyrgyz parliament produced four different ruling coalitions, reforms to combat cor￾ruption were introduced. The level of corruption in Kyrgyzstan declined significantly since the ousting of former president Bakiyev (Freedom House 2014). The stable growth that the Kyrgyz economy experienced since 2010, and political renewal in the years covered in the surveys, stacks the deck against finding declines in incumbent trust and support over the 2010 to 2013 period under investigation here. THE LIFE IN KYRGYZSTAN SURVEYS The first part of the analysis relies on panel survey data from the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 waves of the LiK survey (Brück et al. 2014). The survey tracks the same 3,000 households in all seven Kyrgyz oblasts (regions) and the two cities of Bishkek and Osh. The data are representative at both the national and regional level. 81.6 percent of all 3000 households identified in the original sample in 2010 participated in all four waves. We restrict our sample to adults only (for more infor￾mation on the LiK survey see section A1 of the SI). In 2010, 10.1 percent of households received financial remittances, 12.3 percent in 2011, 12.5 percent in 2012 764 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. Shanghai JiaoTong University, on 26 Oct 2018 at 03:53:04, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000485