A73/208 Trade and Development (UNCTAD) free market commodity price index, which rose by about 8.5 per cent in 2017. However, the increase in this composite index was driven mainly by fuels(up 13.5 per cent in 2017), which reached a two-year high triggered by supply cuts agreed upon by major producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)and non-OPEC producers. The price index of minerals, ores and metals also increased (7 per cent in 2017), fuelled by strong demand and concerns over the limited supply of some base metals, particularly those used in the construction of electric vehicles. On the other hand, general increases in the prices of food and agricultural raw materials that had started in 2016 were reversed in 2017, a year that saw a near-record level of agricultural production. In 2017, the food price index fell by about 7 per cent and the agricultural raw materials price index fell by about 6 per cent. Preliminary statistics for the first three months of 2018 suggest a reversal in the trends of 2017, with a downward trend in the prices of fuels and metals and an upward trend in agri-food prices. However, the most recent projections(not shown in figure IV) show a possible substantial price rec overy for metals and fuels. At this stage, it is difficult to determine to what extent this price recovery will be maintained. Current trade rhetoric is expected to affect grains markets, for example, with a possible impact on food supplies and production. Given that most net food-importing countries are developing countries, they are expected to be more affected by policy shocks to international grains markets UNCTAD commodity price indices (January 2015 to March 2018)(2015=100) UNCTAD free market commodity price index All food -- Agricultural raw materials Minerals. ores and metals Source: UNCTAD secretariat. based on data from UNCTADstat 18-12039 5/22A/73/208 18-12039 5/22 Trade and Development (UNCTAD) free market commodity price index, which rose by about 8.5 per cent in 2017. However, the increase in this composite index was driven mainly by fuels (up 13.5 per cent in 2017), which reached a two-year high triggered by supply cuts agreed upon by major producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers. The price index of minerals, ores and metals also increased (7 per cent in 2017), fuelled by strong demand and concerns over the limited supply of some base metals, particularly those used in the construction of electric vehicles. On the other hand, general increases in the prices of food and agricultural raw materials that had started in 2016 were reversed in 2017, a year that saw a near-record level of agricultural production. In 2017, the food price index fell by about 7 per cent and the agricultural raw materials price index fell by about 6 per cent. Preliminary statistics for the first thr ee months of 2018 suggest a reversal in the trends of 2017, with a downward trend in the prices of fuels and metals and an upward trend in agri-food prices. However, the most recent projections (not shown in figure IV) show a possible substantial price recovery for metals and fuels. At this stage, it is difficult to determine to what extent this price recovery will be maintained. Current trade rhetoric is expected to affect grains markets, for example, with a possible impact on food supplies and production. Given that most net food-importing countries are developing countries, they are expected to be more affected by policy shocks to international grains markets. Figure IV UNCTAD commodity price indices (January 2015 to March 2018) (2015 = 100) Source: UNCTAD secretariat, based on data from UNCTADstat. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 UNCTAD Free Market Commodity Price Index All food Agricultural raw materials Minerals, ores and metals Fuels free market commodity price index