PART I THE SITUATION AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FOREST SECTOR is close collaboration among national institutions expected to be negative and more significant and the newly established National Forest than in industrialized countries(IIaSa and Programme Facility(see p. 55) FAO,2002) Such extreme conditions over the next 50 years AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION AND are likely to result in significant incentives to DEFORESTATION expand agriculture, mostly but not entirely Over the years, researchers have identified new land cleared through deforestation. In many gricultural expansion as a common factor in industrialized countries, however, the area under almost all studies on deforestation. Indeed, much agriculture is shrinking, and land thus of the increase in food production has been at the abandoned is being converted to forest. expense of hundreds of millions of hectares of forest. Although there are no solid estimates of Relationship between forested and agricultural how much farm and grazing land was originallyareas under forest, the point remains that a large To shed light on whether there is a clear portion was cleared for agriculture, and that relationship in the dynamics between forested dditional land will be cleared in the future and agricultural areas, FAO analysed qualitative Efforts are therefore under way to gain a better temporal change trends on the basis of global understanding of the relationship between the statistics. However, this analysis excluded the wo sectors identification of factors that drive agricultural expansion or contraction and the processes that Added pressure from population increases and facilitate such change growing consumption Preliminary findings indicate that agricultural Large population increases and growing per land is expanding in about 70 percent of capita consumption will place unprecedented countries, declining in 25 percent and roughly strains on resources and present new challenges static in 5 percent(Figure 1) to the sustainable management of forests In two-thirds of the countries where including other wooded lane agricultural land is expanding, forest area is About 50 percent of the worlds inhabitants, decreasing but in the other one-third, forests mostly in developing countries, are likely to are expanding suffer malnutrition and poverty in the next 50 In 60 percent of the countries where years unless technologies to increase current agricultural land is decreasing, forests are levels of agricultural productivity are expanding. In most of the rest(36 percent), developed in time(IIASA and FAO, 2002) forests are decreasing Capital formation per agricultural worker Other wooded lands(shrub and forest fallows) has remained stagnant or declined in have roughly maintained their share of the land countries where more than 20 percent of the However, given the dynamic nature of land use, population is undernourished and where some land might revert to secondary forests over agriculture is essential to alleviate poverty time and improve food security(FAO, IFAD and Because other wooded lands may be a buffer WFP2002) for changes in land use, it is important to By 2050, the global population is expected to understand changes in these areas. Integrated increase by about 3 billion to a total of about assessment and monitoring of trees outside 9 billion, with growth occurring primarily in forests is necessary to draw meaningful developing countries where the potential to inferences for wider cross-sectoral policy ncrease arable land is minimal(IIASa and interventions in the forest, agriculture and FAO2002) environment sectors(IIASA and FAO, 2002).As The net impact of climate change on agricultural expansion into forests seems agriculture in developing countries is inevitable(FAO, 2001 ) a key question for future3 SECTOR FOREST THE IN DEVELOPMENTS AND SITUATION THE I PART institutions national among collaboration close is Forest National established newly the and .(55. p see (Facility Programme AND EXPANSION AGRICULTURAL DEFORESTATION identified have researchers, years the Over in factor common a as expansion agricultural much, Indeed. deforestation on studies all almost the at been has production food in increase the of of hectares of millions of hundreds of expense of estimates solid no are there Although. forest originally was land grazing and farm much how large a that remains point the, forest under that and, agriculture for cleared was portion .future the in cleared be will land additional better a gain to way under therefore are Efforts the between relationship the of understanding .sectors two and increases population from pressure Added consumption growing per growing and increases population Large unprecedented place will consumption capita challenges new present and resources on strains ,forests of management sustainable the to .land wooded other including ,inhabitants s’world the of percent 50 About• to likely are, countries developing in mostly 50 next the in poverty and malnutrition suffer current increase to technologies unless years are productivity agricultural of levels .(2002, FAO and IIASA (time in developed worker agricultural per formation Capital• in declined or stagnant remained has the of percent 20 than more where countries where and undernourished is population poverty alleviate to essential is agriculture and IFAD, FAO (security food improve and .(2002, WFP to expected is population global the, 2050 By• about of total a to billion 3 about by increase in primarily occurring growth with, billion 9 to potential the where countries developing and IIASA (minimal is land arable increase .(2002, FAO on change climate of impact net The• is countries developing in agriculture significant more and negative be to expected and IIASA (countries industrialized in than .(2002, FAO years 50 next the over conditions extreme Such to incentives significant in result to likely are on entirely not but mostly, agriculture expand many In. deforestation through cleared land new under area the, however, countries industrialized thus land and, shrinking is agriculture .forest to converted being is abandoned agricultural and forested between Relationship areas clear a is there whether on light shed To forested between dynamics the in relationship qualitative analysed FAO, areas agricultural and global of basis the on trends change temporal the excluded analysis this, However. statistics agricultural drive that factors of identification that processes the and contraction or expansion .changes such facilitate agricultural that indicate findings Preliminary of percent 70 about in expanding is land roughly and percent 25 in declining, countries .(1 Figure (percent 5 in static where countries the of thirds-two In• is area forest, expanding is land agricultural forests, third-one other the in but, decreasing .expanding are where countries the of percent 60 In• are forests, decreasing is land agricultural ,(percent 36 (rest the of most In. expanding .decreasing are forests (fallows forest and shrub (lands wooded Other .land the of share their maintained roughly have ,use land of nature dynamic the given, However over forests secondary to revert might land some .time buffer a be may lands wooded other Because to important is it, use land in changes for Integrated. areas these in changes understand outside trees of monitoring and assessment meaningful draw to necessary is forests policy sectoral-cross wider for inferences and agriculture, forest the in interventions As). 2002, FAO and IIASA (sectors environment seems forests into expansion agricultural future for question key a), 2001, FAO (inevitable