Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant baseline scenario, we show that China could import rice and maize in the twenty-first century and satisfy its own demand for wheat IL. Annual Grain Production and Utilization in China Total grain production (in trade weight) rose to 403 million metric tons (MMT) in 1993-95(table 1). 2 After a decline of 2 MMT in stocks (which increases current grain supply) and imports of 2 MMT of grain, Chinas total annual supply of grain during this period was 407 MMT. This supply was used to meet a number of needs: seed, animal feed,non- food manufacturing, and direct consumption for food. Grain used for di rect food consumption took up the greatest part of total supply, about 65% in 1993-95. Animal feed accounted for 23% of utilization on a per capita basis, the average resident in China consumed 222 kilograms grain per year, a level quite high even in comparison to the rest of East Asia. In contrast, meat and fish consumption was relatively low The feed supply helped provide the average resident with about 30 kilo grams of meat, poultry, and fish product. The aggregation of grain balances, however, disguises different pat terms of rice, wheat, and maize utilization in terms of the use of grain for feed and food and rural-urban dietary habits(table 1, rows 2-5). China's residents consume most of the nation s rice(85%)and wheat(91%)di rectly as food grain. The majority (84%)of Chinas maize is used as feed or the livestock sector Even general consumption aggregates vary by sector of the econ- omy. Urbanites eat far less rice(68 kilograms)and more meat and poul grams,respectively;see table 1, rows 7-9). Wheat is more cope try (34 kilograms) than do their rural counterparts(103 and 20 kild Unlike the rest of East and Southeast Asia, China has a large wheat econ omy, and its per capita rural consumption of wheat exceeds urban intake Although there are sharp regional variations, the average rural resident consumes 90 kilograms per year of wheat versus only 72 kilograms per person for those in cities and towns. Commodity and sectoral differences in demand patterns become important in deriving future balances, since tion of consumer groups, affect each consumer group differentl posi- economic forces and structural changes, as well as the size and cor The waxing and waning of supply and demand in the past several decades has caused imports and exports to rise and fall(table 2).When China began its reform program in 1978, policy makers decided to allow a general increase in imports to relieve the constrained demand of con- sumers. Several years after import restrictions on wheat and other grains were relaxed, imports grew to nearly 15 MMT (row 2). Rapid growth of grain yields in the early 1980s reversed these trends, and by 1985 China became a net exporter. with continued demand growth in the mid-1980s poor harvests drove net imports back up to more than 10 MMt by 1989 Soft demand and a resurgence of agricultural growth allowed imports to Copyright@ 1999. All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved