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347-350． ［43］ Wang Hao，Wang Jianhua，Qin Dayong，et al． Theory and meth￾odology of water resources assessment based on dualistic water cy￾cle model［J］． Journal of Hydraulic Engineering，2006，37 ( 12) : 1 496-1 502．［王浩，王建华，秦大庸，等． 基于二元水 循环模式的水资源评价理论方法［J］． 水利学报，2006，37 ( 12) : 1 496-1 502．］ ［44］ Maraun D，Wetterhall F，Ireson A M，et al． Precipitation down￾scaling under climate change: Ｒecent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user［J］． Ｒeviews of Geophysics， 2010， 48 ( 3 ) : ＲG3003， doi: 10． 1029 / 2009ＲG000314． 1092 地球科学进展 第 29 卷