Contents Foreword...... ...vii Acknowledgments.… Abbreviatic0ns.… Executive Summary… X 1 Introduction................................. .1 Air Pollution:A Threat to Sustainable Prosperity 1 The Focus of This Report.…… ￥ > The Context for This Report................................................... Notes.……………… 8 References .................................... 2 Health Impacts of Air Pollution.............................................11 Introduction................................................................11 Method for Satellite-and Model-Derived Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution 11 Method for Estimating Exposure to Household Air Pollution from Cooking with Solid Fuels.................. 16 Method for Estimating Health Outcomes from Ambient and Household Air Pollution Exposure...................................................18 Trends in Exposure and Health Impacts from Ambient and Household Air Pollution.............................................................22 Trends in Ambient Air Pollution Exposure and Health Impacts.................... 25 Trends in Household Air Pollution Exposure and Health Impacts..................35 The Evolution of GBD Estimates..............................................42 44 References........... 45 3 Economic Impacts of Air Pollution.......................................... 47 ntroduction.………… 47 Methods and Data........................................................... 47 Results:Welfare Losses and Forgone Labor Output...............................50 Alternative Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters............. 60 Notes......................................................................74 References........................................75 4 A Synthesis and the Way Forward...........................................78 Air Pollution:A Costly and Persistent Challenge.................................78 Ambient Air Pollution:A Growing Challenge................................... 79 Indoor Air Pollution:A Remaining Challenge Despite Some Gains.................79 TheWayForward...........................................................80 Improving Estimates................. 82 87 八、、、]0 References........................................................8 The Cost of Air Pollution:Strengthening the Economic Case for Action 讯The Cost of Air Pollution: Strengthening the Economic Case for Action iii Contents Foreword......................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... viii Abbreviations................................................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... x 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Air Pollution: A Threat to Sustainable Prosperity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 The Focus of This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 The Context for This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2 Health Impacts of Air Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Method for Satellite- and Model-Derived Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution . . . . . . . . 11 Method for Estimating Exposure to Household Air Pollution from Cooking with Solid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Method for Estimating Health Outcomes from Ambient and Household Air Pollution Exposure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Trends in Exposure and Health Impacts from Ambient and Household Air Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Trends in Ambient Air Pollution Exposure and Health Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Trends in Household Air Pollution Exposure and Health Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 The Evolution of GBD Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3 Economic Impacts of Air Pollution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Methods and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Results: Welfare Losses and Forgone Labor Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Alternative Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 4 A Synthesis and the Way Forward. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Air Pollution: A Costly and Persistent Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Ambient Air Pollution: A Growing Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Indoor Air Pollution: A Remaining Challenge Despite Some Gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 The Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Improving Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 1700234_Cost of Pollution.indd 3 8/29/16 1:55 PM