Articles 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Asia Pacific,high income Brunei 53-4(48-2-600) 214(18.5-247) 11-4(10-0-131) 92(8-0-10-9) 7-5(56-10-3引 Japan 17-8(17-7-18-0) 11-6(114-117) 6-6(6-5-6-8) 44(43-45) 33(2-8-39) Singapore 29-2(27-9-305) 153(14-4-16.3) 7-7(7-2-83) 4-1(3-7-44) 2-5(1-933别 South Korea 56-5(521-610) 18-7(14-2-24-2) 113(8-4-14-7 93(6-8-12.2) 5-13-4-7-6) Asia,central Armenia 103-1(88-6-122-8) 68.9(65-7-72-1) 509(48-7-532) 32-260-7-33-8) 193(157-23-8) Azerbaijan 149-8(109-1-206-8) 109-8(99-7-121-9) 78-6(733-83-2) 56-252-5-596) 33-8(26-6-427) Georgia 94-0(77-9-1130) 58.9(55-7-623) 44-8(42-6-47-0) 35-2(33-2-37-2) 239(19-0-293) Kazakhstan 69-8(609-785) 653(61-8-68-9) 53-3(50-3-56-0) 44-1(40-8-475) 313(25-4-40-0) Kyrgyzstan 139-3126-5-152-6) 982(941-1028) 69-5(66-8-72-6 50-9(46-7-54-5) 425(36-0-52-4) Mongolia 157-4(147-0-169-4) 126-3(1212-131-5) 94-5(909-98-5) 58-5(55-7-614) 33-8(29-4-387) Tajikistan 177-5(142-2-210-6) 1435(135-2-152-6) 108.4(102-2-114-3) 81-4(76-8-86-1) 49-7(39-7-604) Turkmenistan 184-7(137-2-239-7) 124-8(111-7-139-9) 98-4(89-4-108.5) 74-7(644-86-3) 26.0(189-34-8 Uzbekistan 81-6(70592-2) 774(74-1-81-4) 659(62-6-68.5) 573(54-8-60-4) 435(36.7-51-6) Asia,east China 85-7(733-99-8) 48.5(430-54-3) 39-6(35-8-43-3) 320(28-5-36-5) 154(118-20-1) North Korea 1144(62.1-210-7) 70.5(38-3-129-7) 509(27-7-93-8) 45-9(24-9845) 33-4(18-1-615) Taiwan 27-4(26-9-27-9) 15-3(15-0-15-6) 8-9(87-9-2) 8-6(8-3-8-9) 62(52-740 Asia,south Afghanistan 286-9(260-0-314-9) 212-0(196.9-230-1) 163-5(1542-1735) 141-0(131-6-150-4) 1213(1090-1347刀 Bangladesh 234-4(227-4-242-7刀 191-0(186-5-195-2) 139-5(136-7-142-5) 87-9(85-5-90-1) 55-9(51-6-60-1) Bhutan 278-1(246-8-310-7) 207-7(190-3-2294) 144-8(134-9-1567) 881(81-4-957) 541(47-4-61-8) India 197-8(191-9-203-4) 150-9(147-8-154-0) 114-3(112-0-116-7) 84-6(82-5-86-8) 62-6(58-2-67-3) Nepal 261-7(2523-271-7) 210-2(2047-215-8) 137-3(133-6-141-0) 79753-809) 47-3(42-6-523) Pakistan 169-2(162-6-176-5) 134-9(129-0-141-0) 113-3(109-0-117-7 946(89-9-98-8) 80.3705-923) Asia,southeast Cambodia 169-2(140-7-203-6) 1734(1648-183-6) 121-2(115-5-127-3) 105-4(99-8-1117) 59-7(42-4-84.8) Burma 162-6(139-0-19040 125-6(106-5-144-1) 1202(103-5-142-9) 79-6(68-3-924) 55-039-7-76-0) Indonesia 156-8(152-5-161-0) 104-1(101-7-106-8) 71.5(69-8-733) 48-8(47-4-504) 366(324-411) Laos 218-8(158.4-296-1) 184-7(1654-207-9) 144-5(126-9-164-7) 98-376-3-127-0) 68.3(47-1-97-9) Malaysia 496(47-0-52-3) 28-0(25-6-30-6) 16-4(151-17-9) 9-6(8-7-10-6) 51(4-1-63) Maldives 247-1(226-3-272-5) 1727(160-7-187-0) 88-5(80-8-967) 34-0(29-7-39-0) 14-0(111-17-9 Mauritius 84-0(81-7-864) 438(42-2-453) 24-4(23-3-255) 19-0(18-1-20-1) 13-0(10-7-157刃 Philippines 87-5(83-8-909) 78.876-3-813) 541(52-4-55-9) 38-3(36-5-40-7) 28-6(23-6-33-9) Seychelles 79-9(70-1-91-7) 29-8(26-1-34-6) 18-9(163-217) 17-3(14-3-21-2) 12-5(8-7-18-6) Sri Lanka 66-8(63-0-70-7) 437(412-465) 35-4(32-1-392) 17-6(15-8-194) 10-17-2-14-0) Thailand 87-9(845-91-3) 492(47-3-51-5) 233(22-1-247刀 13-8(131-14-7) 8.9(7-6-10-5) Timor-Leste 202-1(177-4-2297刀 153-2(142-0-167-5) 101-4(92-7-110-3) 826(74-0-925) 632(46-7-83-7) Vietnam 87-377-0-992) 67.9(644-71-6) 46-3(43-8-48.8) 21-8(19-9-24-0) 12.9(9-1-18-6) Australasia Australia 23-1(22-6-23-6) 14-6(14-1-15-0) 9-9(96-10-3) 6-4(6-2-6-7) 4-73-956) New Zealand 21-5(20-7-22-3) 16-5(15-8-17-3) 11-1(10-6-117) 7-975-83) 58(5-0-6.9) (Continues on next page) children have high mortality,resulting in selection HIV-negative women in the 10 years before the survey bias."This bias is expected to have a larger effect farther in 21 DHS with HIV testing that can be linked to the back in time before the survey,-which would tend to complete birth histories.The difference in the under-5 reduce the estimated trend in child mortality.Our use, mortality rate ranges from 135 (uncertainty interval in nearly all countries,of overlapping surveys to 72-200)per 1000 higher in HIV-positive women than in estimate the levels and trends in child mortality should HIV-negative women to 73 (4-141)per 1000 lower in substantially attenuate this effect.As described in more HIV-positive women than in HIV-negative women.This detail in the webappendix,we have further examined variation is related to the correlated socioeconomic the under-5 mortality rate in HIV-positive women and status and location of HIV-positive women relative to 1992 www.thelancet.com Vol 375 June 5,2010Articles 1992 www.thelancet.com Vol 375 June 5, 2010 children have high mortality, resulting in selection bias.14 This bias is expected to have a larger eff ect farther back in time before the survey,33–35 which would tend to reduce the estimated trend in child mortality. Our use, in nearly all countries, of overlapping surveys to estimate the levels and trends in child mortality should substantially attenuate this eff ect. As described in more detail in the webappendix, we have further examined the under-5 mortality rate in HIV-positive women and HIV-negative women in the 10 years before the survey in 21 DHS with HIV testing that can be linked to the complete birth histories. The diff erence in the under-5 mortality rate ranges from 135 (uncertainty interval 72–200) per 1000 higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-negative women to 73 (4–141) per 1000 lower in HIV-positive women than in HIV-negative women. This variation is related to the correlated socioeconomic status and location of HIV-positive women relative to 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Asia Pacifi c, high income Brunei 53·4 (48·2–60·0) 21·4 (18·5–24·7) 11·4 (10·0–13·1) 9·2 (8·0–10·9) 7·5 (5·6–10·3) Japan 17·8 (17·7–18·0) 11·6 (11·4–11·7) 6·6 (6·5–6·8) 4·4 (4·3–4·5) 3·3 (2·8–3·9) Singapore 29·2 (27·9–30·5) 15·3 (14·4–16·3) 7·7 (7·2–8·3) 4·1 (3·7–4·4) 2·5 (1·9–3·3) South Korea 56·5 (52·1–61·0) 18·7 (14·2–24·2) 11·3 (8·4–14·7) 9·3 (6·8–12·2) 5·1 (3·4–7·6) Asia, central Armenia 103·1 (88·6–122·8) 68·9 (65·7–72·1) 50·9 (48·7–53·2) 32·2 (30·7–33·8) 19·3 (15·7–23·8) Azerbaijan 149·8 (109·1–206·8) 109·8 (99·7–121·9) 78·6 (73·3–83·2) 56·2 (52·5–59·6) 33·8 (26·6–42·7) Georgia 94·0 (77·9–113·0) 58·9 (55·7–62·3) 44·8 (42·6–47·0) 35·2 (33·2–37·2) 23·9 (19·0–29·3) Kazakhstan 69·8 (60·9–78·5) 65·3 (61·8–68·9) 53·3 (50·3–56·0) 44·1 (40·8–47·5) 31·3 (25·4–40·0) Kyrgyzstan 139·3 (126·5–152·6) 98·2 (94·1–102·8) 69·5 (66·8–72·6) 50·9 (46·7–54·5) 42·5 (36·0–52·4) Mongolia 157·4 (147·0–169·4) 126·3 (121·2–131·5) 94·5 (90·9–98·5) 58·5 (55·7–61·4) 33·8 (29·4–38·7) Tajikistan 177·5 (142·2–210·6) 143·5 (135·2–152·6) 108·4 (102·2–114·3) 81·4 (76·8–86·1) 49·7 (39·7–60·4) Turkmenistan 184·7 (137·2–239·7) 124·8 (111·7–139·9) 98·4 (89·4–108·5) 74·7 (64·4–86·3) 26·0 (18·9–34·8) Uzbekistan 81·6 (70·5–92·2) 77·4 (74·1–81·4) 65·9 (62·6–68·5) 57·3 (54·8–60·4) 43·5 (36·7–51·6) Asia, east China 85·7 (73·3–99·8) 48·5 (43·0–54·3) 39·6 (35·8–43·3) 32·0 (28·5–36·5) 15·4 (11·8–20·1) North Korea 114·4 (62·1–210·7) 70·5 (38·3–129·7) 50·9 (27·7–93·8) 45·9 (24·9–84·5) 33·4 (18·1–61·5) Taiwan 27·4 (26·9–27·9) 15·3 (15·0–15·6) 8·9 (8·7–9·2) 8·6 (8·3–8·9) 6·2 (5·2–7·4) Asia, south Afghanistan 286·9 (260·0–314·9) 212·0 (196·9–230·1) 163·5 (154·2–173·5) 141·0 (131·6–150·4) 121·3 (109·0–134·7) Bangladesh 234·4 (227·4–242·7) 191·0 (186·5–195·2) 139·5 (136·7–142·5) 87·9 (85·5–90·1) 55·9 (51·6–60·1) Bhutan 278·1 (246·8–310·7) 207·7 (190·3–229·4) 144·8 (134·9–156·7) 88·1 (81·4–95·7) 54·1 (47·4–61·8) India 197·8 (191·9–203·4) 150·9 (147·8–154·0) 114·3 (112·0–116·7) 84·6 (82·5–86·8) 62·6 (58·2–67·3) Nepal 261·7 (252·3–271·7) 210·2 (204·7–215·8) 137·3 (133·6–141·0) 77·9 (75·3–80·9) 47·3 (42·6–52·3) Pakistan 169·2 (162·6–176·5) 134·9 (129·0–141·0) 113·3 (109·0–117·7) 94·6 (89·9–98·8) 80·3 (70·5–92·3) Asia, southeast Cambodia 169·2 (140·7–203·6) 173·4 (164·8–183·6) 121·2 (115·5–127·3) 105·4 (99·8–111·7) 59·7 (42·4–84·8) Burma 162·6 (139·0–190·4) 125·6 (106·5–144·1) 120·2 (103·5–142·9) 79·6 (68·3–92·4) 55·0 (39·7–76·0) Indonesia 156·8 (152·5–161·0) 104·1 (101·7–106·8) 71·5 (69·8–73·3) 48·8 (47·4–50·4) 36·6 (32·4–41·1) Laos 218·8 (158·4–296·1) 184·7 (165·4–207·9) 144·5 (126·9–164·7) 98·3 (76·3–127·0) 68·3 (47·1–97·9) Malaysia 49·6 (47·0–52·3) 28·0 (25·6–30·6) 16·4 (15·1–17·9) 9·6 (8·7–10·6) 5·1 (4·1–6·3) Maldives 247·1 (226·3–272·5) 172·7 (160·7–187·0) 88·5 (80·8–96·7) 34·0 (29·7–39·0) 14·0 (11·1–17·9) Mauritius 84·0 (81·7–86·4) 43·8 (42·2–45·3) 24·4 (23·3–25·5) 19·0 (18·1–20·1) 13·0 (10·7–15·7) Philippines 87·5 (83·8–90·9) 78·8 (76·3–81·3) 54·1 (52·4–55·9) 38·3 (36·5–40·7) 28·6 (23·6–33·9) Seychelles 79·9 (70·1–91·7) 29·8 (26·1–34·6) 18·9 (16·3–21·7) 17·3 (14·3–21·2) 12·5 (8·7–18·6) Sri Lanka 66·8 (63·0–70·7) 43·7 (41·2–46·5) 35·4 (32·1–39·2) 17·6 (15·8–19·4) 10·1 (7·2–14·0) Thailand 87·9 (84·5–91·3) 49·2 (47·3–51·5) 23·3 (22·1–24·7) 13·8 (13·1–14·7) 8·9 (7·6–10·5) Timor-Leste 202·1 (177·4–229·7) 153·2 (142·0–167·5) 101·4 (92·7–110·3) 82·6 (74·0–92·5) 63·2 (46·7–83·7) Vietnam 87·3 (77·0–99·2) 67·9 (64·4–71·6) 46·3 (43·8–48·8) 21·8 (19·9–24·0) 12·9 (9·1–18·6) Australasia Australia 23·1 (22·6–23·6) 14·6 (14·1–15·0) 9·9 (9·6–10·3) 6·4 (6·2–6·7) 4·7 (3·9–5·6) New Zealand 21·5 (20·7–22·3) 16·5 (15·8–17·3) 11·1 (10·6–11·7) 7·9 (7·5–8·3) 5·8 (5·0–6·9) (Continues on next page)