766 Economic Development and Cultural Change oducers with ever-increasing prices. Severe fiscal problems, hou, protect its went the route of its prosperous East Asian neighbors and began to likely rule out such a strateg 51. Huang and Rozelle, Market Development and Food Demand in Rural 52. S. Rozelle, J. Huang, and M. Rosegrant, How China will NoT Sta the World, ' Choices, no. 1(1996), pp. 10-16: J. Huang, S. Rozelle, and M Rosegrant, ""Supply, Demand, and Trade in China, a 2020 Vision Working 1 a 53. P Yotopoulos, "Middle-Income Classes and Food Crisis: The New Food-Feed Competition, ",Economic Development and Cultural Change 33 pil1985):463-84. 54. Fan and Agcaoili(n 4 above); and the Economic Research Service. 55. Rozelle et al.(n. 29 above) 56. J. Huang, 'Agricultural Policy and Chinas Agricultural Perfor- mance,''Working paper( Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Beijing, 1996) 57. Rozelle, Pray, and Huang(n 34 above) reasons. First, our estimated supply own-price response elasticities are small,a characteristic that is commonly found in other Asian countries where the govern ment frequently intervenes into the agricultural decision-making process. Sec ond, on the demand side, although there are fairly large negative own-price elas ticities, positive cross-price elasticities dampen the reduction(increase)in demand when prices rise(fall). Similar magnitudes are observed with changes for the price of fertilizer; by increasing( decreasing) the projected growth of fer zer prices by 1%, imports increase(decrease)by 4 MMT. Hence, if the past ends hold-1. e, falling grain prices and rising fertilizer prices-the change in Chinas output to input price ratio means more imports will be required to meet the nation's projected deficit (at least through the medium run when higher imports would force prices up, offsetting part of the deteriorating output-to- fertilizer-price relationship) 59. Rosegrant, Agcaoili, and Perez(n 40 above) See P. H. Lindert, "The Bad Earth? Chinas Ag the 1930s, Working paper series no. 83(University of ricultural History Center, 1995), for an analysis of soil do Aliform ural soils since vation in china 61. Economic Research Service(n. 7 above): Carter and Zhong (n bove); and Rosegrant, Agcaoili, and Perez Copyright 1999 All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved