WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY Figure 4.9. Contributions of Macroeconomic Drivers to Aggregate Trade Balances, 2010-17 Figure 4.10. Bilateral Trade Deficit Reversal Episodes Figure 4.11. Tariffs and Global Value Chain Participation 116 Figure 4. 12. Illustration of the Effect of Tariff Changes on Real Value Added l18 ure 4.13. Sectoral Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US-China Trade World Real value Added Figure 4.1.1. Gross versus Value-Added Trade Balance Figure 4.2. 1. US-China Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances igure 4.3. 1 Improvement in Bilateral Trade Deficits during Overall Trade deficit Reversal Episodes Figure 4.4.1. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US-China Trade Real GDP Figure 4.4.2. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US-China Trade Real Exports Figure 4. 4.3. US Imports of Electronics and Machinery before and after Tariffs Figure 4. 4.4. Mexico's Imports of Intermediate Inputs for the Electronics and Manufacturing sectors ternational Monetary Fund April 2019WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY Figure 4.9. Contributions of Macroeconomic Drivers to Aggregate Trade Balances, Average 2010–17 114 Figure 4.10. Bilateral Trade Deficit Reversal Episodes 115 Figure 4.11. Tariffs and Global Value Chain Participation 116 Figure 4.12. Illustration of the Effect of Tariff Changes on Real Value Added 118 Figure 4.13. Sectoral Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US–China Trade: World Real Value Added 119 Figure 4.1.1. Gross versus Value-Added Trade Balance 120 Figure 4.2.1. US–China Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances 122 Figure 4.3.1. Improvement in Bilateral Trade Deficits during Overall Trade Deficit Reversal Episodes 123 Figure 4.4.1. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US–China Trade: Real GDP 125 Figure 4.4.2. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US–China Trade: Real Exports 125 Figure 4.4.3. US Imports of Electronics and Machinery before and after Tariffs 127 Figure 4.4.4. Mexico’s Imports of Intermediate Inputs for the Electronics and Manufacturing Sectors 127 viii International Monetary Fund | April 2019