《货币经济学》课程文献阅读：IMF世界经济展望（2019Q1）.pdf_大学文库

©2019 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company Cataloging-in-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library Names: International Monetary Fund. Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877. Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online) Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations— Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals. Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-48439-748-0 (English Paper) 978-1-49830-610-2 (English ePub) 978-1-49830-611-9 (English Mobi) 978-1-49830-611-9 (English PDF) The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 21, 2019. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2018. World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery. Washington, DC, April. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.imf.org

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY Macroeconomic Implications of Shocks to the Price of Capital Goods Summary and Policy Implications Box 3. 1. The Price of Manufactured Low-Carbon Energy Technologies Box 3. 2. Evidence from Big Data: Capital Goods Prices across Countries Box 3.3. On the Underlying Source of Changes in Capital Goods Prices: A Model-Based Analysis Box 3. 4. Capital Goods Tariffs and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence from Colombia 935%80 References Online Annexes Annex 3. 1. Data Sources and Annex 3. 2. Supplementary Stylized Facts Annex 3.3. Using Trade Data to Uncover Differences in Capital Goods Prices across Countries Annex 3.4. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Across Countries Annex 3.5. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Over Time Annex 3.6. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Country Level Annex 3.7. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Sector Leve Chapter 4. The Drivers of Bilateral Trade and the Spillovers from Tariffs Introduction Stylized Facts 105 Determinants of bilateral trade balances The role of macroeconomic factors A Closer Look at Tariffs and Their Spillovers usion 119 Box 4.1. Gross versus value-Added Trade Box 4.2. Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances Box 4.3. Understanding Trade Deficit Adjustments: Does Bilateral Trade Play a Special Role? 123 Box 4.4. The Global Macro and Micro Effects of a US-China Trade Dispute: Insights from Three models Online Annexes Annex 4. 1. Gravity Model, Data, and Estimation Annex 4.2. Derivation of Relation between Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances Annex 4.3. Tariff Spillovers: Technical and Data Appendices Statistical Appendi 131 What's new Data and Conventions Classification of countries eneral Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification Table A. Classification by Word Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2018 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup Table C. European Union 136 Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Ext International Monetary Fund April 2019

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY iv International Monetary Fund | April 2019 Macroeconomic Implications of Shocks to the Price of Capital Goods 88 Summary and Policy Implications 91 Box 3.1. The Price of Manufactured Low-Carbon Energy Technologies 93 Box 3.2. Evidence from Big Data: Capital Goods Prices across Countries 95 Box 3.3. On the Underlying Source of Changes in Capital Goods Prices: A Model-Based Analysis 96 Box 3.4. Capital Goods Tariffs and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence from Colombia 98 References 100 Online Annexes Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings Annex 3.2. Supplementary Stylized Facts Annex 3.3. Using Trade Data to Uncover Differences in Capital Goods Prices across Countries Annex 3.4. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Across Countries Annex 3.5. Drivers of Relative Investment Prices: Over Time Annex 3.6. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Country Level Annex 3.7. Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Relative Investment Prices on Investment Rates at the Sector Level Chapter 4. The Drivers of Bilateral Trade and the Spillovers from Tariffs 103 Introduction 103 Stylized Facts 105 Determinants of Bilateral Trade Balances 109 The Role of Macroeconomic Factors 113 A Closer Look at Tariffs and Their Spillovers 115 Conclusion 119 Box 4.1. Gross versus Value-Added Trade 120 Box 4.2. Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances 122 Box 4.3. Understanding Trade Deficit Adjustments: Does Bilateral Trade Play a Special Role? 123 Box 4.4. The Global Macro and Micro Effects of a US–China Trade Dispute: Insights from Three Models 124 References 128 Online Annexes Annex 4.1. Gravity Model, Data, and Estimation Annex 4.2. Derivation of Relation between Bilateral and Aggregate Trade Balances Annex 4.3. Tariff Spillovers: Technical and Data Appendices Statistical Appendix 131 Assumptions 131 What’s New 132 Data and Conventions 132 Country Notes 133 Classification of Countries 133 General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 134 Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2018 135 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 136 Table C. European Union 136 Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 137

CONTENTS Table E Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 138 Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods Table G Key Data Documentation 141 Box Al. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 151 Output(Tables A1l-A4) Financial Policies(Table A8) Foreign Trade(Table A9) Current Account Transactions(Tables AlO-Al2 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 178 Flow of Funds(Table A14) Medium-Term Baseline Scenario(Table A15) World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2019 Table Table 1. 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Scenario Table 1. Trade Assumptions in the Baseline, Scenario A, and Scenario B Table 1. SE1. Commodity Price Cycle Descriptive Statistics Table lse. Global Industrial Production nowcast Table 1.SF 3. Global GDP Nowcast 84445 Table 1.SF4. Forecasting Global Industrial Production and GDP Annex Table 1. 1.1. European Economies: Real GDP Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment Annex Table 1. 1. 2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP Consumer Prices, Current Accou Balance, and Unemployment Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP Consumer Prices, Current Account Annex Table 1. 4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment Annex Table 1. 1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment Annex Table 1. 1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 5 Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output Table 3.1. Sectoral Producer Prices Table 3.2. Real Investment Rate and the Relative Price of Machinery and Equipment Table 4.1. Sign and Significance of Tariff Effects on Economic Variables Table 4.4.1. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US-China Trade: Bilateral trade flows with Third Countries Online Tables-Statistical Appendix Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices

contents International Monetary Fund | April 2019 v Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 138 Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 140 Table G. Key Data Documentation 141 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 151 List of Tables Output (Tables A1–A4) 156 Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 163 Financial Policies (Table A8) 168 Foreign Trade (Table A9) 169 Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 171 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 178 Flow of Funds (Table A14) 182 Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 185 World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 187 IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2019 197 Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 8 Scenario Table 1. Trade Assumptions in the Baseline, Scenario A, and Scenario B 28 Table 1.SF.1. Commodity Price Cycle Descriptive Statistics 41 Table 1.SF.2. Global Industrial Production Nowcast 44 Table 1.SF.3. Global GDP Nowcast 44 Table 1.SF.4. Forecasting Global Industrial Production and GDP 45 Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 46 Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 47 Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 48 Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 49 Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 50 Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 51 Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 52 Table 3.1. Sectoral Producer Prices 87 Table 3.2. Real Investment Rate and the Relative Price of Machinery and Equipment 89 Table 4.1. Sign and Significance of Tariff Effects on Economic Variables 117 Table 4.4.1. Macro Effects from a 25 Percent Increase in Tariffs Affecting All US–China Trade: Bilateral Trade Flows with Third Countries 126 Online Tables—Statistical Appendix Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/ Borrowing and eneral Government Net Lending/ Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net d Overall Fiscal balance Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/ Borrowing Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates Table Bll. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in goods Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario Figure 1. Half-Yearly Growth Rates Figure 1. 1. Global Activity Indicators Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices Figure 1.4. Global Infation Figure 1.5. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions Figure 1.6. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates and Spreads 2234456 Figure 1.7. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit Figure 1.8. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, September 2018-March 2019 Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows Figure 1.10. Half-Yearly Growth Forecasts Figure 1. 11. Forecast Assumptions: Fiscal Indicators igure 1. 12. Commodity Price Assumptions and Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses Figure 1. 13. Growth Rate: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Figure 1. 14. Contributions to GDP Growth Figure 1.15. Per Capita Real GDP Growth Figure 1. 16. Global Current Account Balance Figure 1. 17. Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals Figure 1. 18. Net International Investment Position Figure 1. 19. Policy Uncertainty and Trade Tensions Figure 1. 20. Geopolitical Risk Index 6770024577800101 Figure 1. 21. Risks to the Global Outlook Scenario Figure 1. Real GDP in Brexit Scenario Scenario Figure 2. Brexit Long-Term Real GDP Effects International Monetary Fund April 2019

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY vi International Monetary Fund | April 2019 Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Service Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators Figures Figure 1. Half-Yearly Growth Rates xv Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 2 Figure 1.2. Trade Indicators 2 Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices 3 Figure 1.4. Global Inflation 4 Figure 1.5. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions 4 Figure 1.6. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates and Spreads 5 Figure 1.7. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit 6 Figure 1.8. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, September 2018–March 2019 6 Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows 7 Figure 1.10. Half-Yearly Growth Forecasts 7 Figure 1.11. Forecast Assumptions: Fiscal Indicators 10 Figure 1.12. Commodity Price Assumptions and Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses 10 Figure 1.13. Growth Rate: Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 12 Figure 1.14. Contributions to GDP Growth 14 Figure 1.15. Per Capita Real GDP Growth 15 Figure 1.16. Global Current Account Balance 17 Figure 1.17. Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals 17 Figure 1.18. Net International Investment Position 18 Figure 1.19. Policy Uncertainty and Trade Tensions 20 Figure 1.20. Geopolitical Risk Index 20 Figure 1.21. Risks to the Global Outlook 21 Scenario Figure 1. Real GDP in Brexit Scenario 30 Scenario Figure 2. Brexit Long-Term Real GDP Effects 31

CONTENTS Figure 1. 1. Labor Market Dynamics in Selected Advanced Economies Figure 1.3. 1. Regional Disparities in gDP per Capita Figure 1. SE2. Commodity Cycles and Economic Activity Figure 1.SE3. Synchronization with Economic Activity 4. Commodity-Wide Synchronization Figure 1. SE5. Latent Factors and Economic Activity igure 1. SE6. Global Real GDP Growth Nowcast: Actual versus Fitted value Figure 2. 1. Worrisome Macroeconomic Trends Figure 2.2. Evolution of Market Power Figure 2.3. Markup Increases, by Country Income Group Figure 2. 4. Decomposition of Markup Increases 5802235690016 Figure 2.5. Disconnect between Firms in the Top decile and the rest Figure 2.6. Patents and Markups: A Hump-Shaped Relationship Figure 2.7. Implied Relationship between Higher Markups and Patents Figure 2.8. Markups and Physical Capital Investment Figure 2.9. Markup Increases, Investment, and the Natural Interest Rate Figure 2.10. Markups and Labor Income Shares Figure 2.1.1. Comovement between Average Industry Concentration and Corporate Saving Group of Seven Countries gure 2.1.2. Change in Industry Concentration and Change in Saving Rates Figure 2.2.1. Total Number of Deals and Share of Horizontal Deals 012 Figure 2.2.2. Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on Acquirer Firms Markups, by Deal Type Figure 3.1. Capital Stock, Investment, and the Relative Price of Capital Goods Figure 3. 2. Dynamics of Relative Prices across Types of Capital Goods and Broad Country Groups81 igure 3.3. Absolute and Relative Prices of Machinery and Equipment across Countries in 201182 Figure 3.4. Unit Values of Tradable Capital Goods across Countries Figure 3.5. Trade Costs in 2011 igure 3.6. Trade Costs, Relative Productivity, and the Price of Capital Goods in 2011 85 Figure 3.7. Contributions to Changes in Relative Producer Prices of Capital Goods: 2000-11 Figure 3. 8. Elasticity of Real Investment-to-GDP Ratio to Relative Price of Capital Goods: Model Simulations versus Empirical Evidence Figure 3. 9. Contributions of Relative Prices to Increases in Real Investment in Machinery and Equipment, 1990-94 to 2010-14 Figure 3.1.1. Levelized Cost of Electricity of Low-Carbon Energy Sources Figure 3.1.2. Annual Additions to Global Electricity Capacity 93 Figure 3.2.1. Price of Apple Products and Income 95 igure 3.3. 1. Model Simulations Figure 3.4.1. Distribution of Tariff Changes between 2010 and 2011 98 Figure 3. 2. Effect on Investment from Cuts in Tariffs on Capital Goods Inputs, Other Inputs, Figure 4.1. Bilateral Trade Balances, by Major Partners 106 Figure 4.3. Trade Intensity and Barriers to Trade Figure 4.4. Revealed Comparative Advantage Figure 4.5. Largest Trade Flows, 1995 versus 2015 108 Figure 4.6. The Role of Global Value Chains Figure 4.7. Contributions to Changes in Bilateral Trade Balances, 1995-2015 gure 4.8. Effect of a Deterioration of Germany's Aggregate Trade Balance on Selected

contents Figure 1.1.1. Labor Market Dynamics in Selected Advanced Economies 33 Figure 1.3.1. Regional Disparities in GDP per Capita 35 Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments 38 Figure 1.SF.2. Commodity Cycles and Economic Activity 40 Figure 1.SF.3. Synchronization with Economic Activity 42 Figure 1.SF.4. Commodity-Wide Synchronization 42 Figure 1.SF.5. Latent Factors and Economic Activity 43 Figure 1.SF.6. Global Real GDP Growth Nowcast: Actual versus Fitted Value 45 Figure 2.1. Worrisome Macroeconomic Trends 56 Figure 2.2. Evolution of Market Power 59 Figure 2.3. Markup Increases, by Country Income Group 60 Figure 2.4. Decomposition of Markup Increases 60 Figure 2.5. Disconnect between Firms in the Top Decile and the Rest 61 Figure 2.6. Patents and Markups: A Hump-Shaped Relationship 63 Figure 2.7. Implied Relationship between Higher Markups and Patents 63 Figure 2.8. Markups and Physical Capital Investment 64 Figure 2.9. Markup Increases, Investment, and the Natural Interest Rate 66 Figure 2.10. Markups and Labor Income Shares 67 Figure 2.1.1. Comovement between Average Industry Concentration and Corporate Saving in Group of Seven Countries 70 Figure 2.1.2. Change in Industry Concentration and Change in Saving Rates 71 Figure 2.2.1. Total Number of Deals and Share of Horizontal Deals 72 Figure 2.2.2. Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on Acquirer Firm’s Markups, by Deal Type 73 Figure 3.1. Capital Stock, Investment, and the Relative Price of Capital Goods 78 Figure 3.2. Dynamics of Relative Prices across Types of Capital Goods and Broad Country Groups 81 Figure 3.3. Absolute and Relative Prices of Machinery and Equipment across Countries in 2011 82 Figure 3.4. Unit Values of Tradable Capital Goods across Countries 84 Figure 3.5. Trade Costs in 2011 85 Figure 3.6. Trade Costs, Relative Productivity, and the Price of Capital Goods in 2011 85 Figure 3.7. Contributions to Changes in Relative Producer Prices of Capital Goods: 2000–11 87 Figure 3.8. Elasticity of Real Investment-to-GDP Ratio to Relative Price of Capital Goods: Model Simulations versus Empirical Evidence 90 Figure 3.9. Contributions of Relative Prices to Increases in Real Investment in Machinery and Equipment, 1990–94 to 2010–14 90 Figure 3.1.1. Levelized Cost of Electricity of Low-Carbon Energy Sources 93 Figure 3.1.2. Annual Additions to Global Electricity Capacity 93 Figure 3.2.1. Price of Apple Products and Income 95 Figure 3.3.1. Model Simulations 96 Figure 3.4.1. Distribution of Tariff Changes between 2010 and 2011 98 Figure 3.4.2. Effect on Investment from Cuts in Tariffs on Capital Goods Inputs, Other Inputs, and Output 98 Figure 4.1. Bilateral Trade Balances, by Major Partners 106 Figure 4.2. Global Trade Imbalances 106 Figure 4.3. Trade Intensity and Barriers to Trade 107 Figure 4.4. Revealed Comparative Advantage 107 Figure 4.5. Largest Trade Flows, 1995 versus 2015 108 Figure 4.6. The Role of Global Value Chains 109 Figure 4.7. Contributions to Changes in Bilateral Trade Balances, 1995–2015 111 Figure 4.8. Effect of a Deterioration of Germany’s Aggregate Trade Balance on Selected Bilateral Balances 114 International Monetary Fund | April 2019 vii

ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during January 14 to February 11, 2019, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM ID, which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained( for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box Al in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $59.16 barrel in 2019 and $59.02 a barrel in 2020 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate(LIBOR)on US dollar deposits will average 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average -0.3 percent in 2019 and -0.2 in 2020; nd that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield, on average, 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would, in any event, be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through March 29, 2019 The following conventions are used throughout the WEO to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; between years or months(for example, 2018-19 or January-June) to indicate the years or months Ing years or mont between years or months(for example, 2018/19)to indicate a fiscal or financial year. “ Billion” means a thousand million;" trillion” means a thousand billion Basis points" refers to hundredths of I percentage point( for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to y4 of I percentage point) Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country For some countries, the figures for 2018 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each coun cators in the national refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indic What is new in this publication: fyr Macedonia is now called North Macedonia In February 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the rTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new rTGs dollar Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of us dollar value differ from authorities estimates In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEo database. When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding As used in this report, the terms"country and"economy"do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of he weighted data. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the IMF, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries

International Monetary Fund | April 2019 ix ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during January 14 to February 11, 2019, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $59.16 a barrel in 2019 and $59.02 a barrel in 2020 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on US dollar deposits will average 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 in 2020; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield, on average, 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would, in any event, be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through March 29, 2019. The following conventions are used throughout the WEO: . . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; – between years or months (for example, 2018-19 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; and / between years or months (for example, 2018/19) to indicate a fiscal or financial year. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country. For some countries, the figures for 2018 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country. What is new in this publication: • FYR Macedonia is now called North Macedonia. • In February 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates. In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply: • If no source is listed on tables and figures, data are drawn from the WEO database. • When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. • Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding. As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless noted otherwise, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the IMF, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries