《货币经济学》课程文献阅读：UNCTAD世界投资报告（2018）.pdf_大学文库

NOTE Copyright © United Nations, 2018. All rights reserved. Printed at United Nations, Geneva. The UNCTAD Investment and Enterprise Division is the focal point in the United Nations System for investment and enterprise development. As a global centre of excellence, the Division conducts leading-edge research and policy analysis, provides technical assistance to 160 member States and regional groupings, and builds international consensus among the 196 member States of the organization. Its mission is to promote investment and enterprise for sustainable and inclusive development. The Division provides, among others, Information about these products, frameworks and services, as well as the publications of the Division, can be found free of charge at UNCTAD’s website (www.unctad.org/diae) or the organization’s investment policy hub (www. investmentpolicyhub.unctad.org). The copyright of the material in this publication rests with UNCTAD. It may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to UNCTAD and this Report. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Secretariat (e-mail: diaeinfo@unctad.org). UNCTAD/WIR/2018 (Overview) The Overview is prepared based on the in-depth analysis contained in World Investment Report 2018: Investment and New Industrial Policies (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.18.II.D.4). Two flagship products: World Investment Report World Investment Forum Six key policy frameworks: Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development Action Plan for Investing in the SDGs Entrepreneurship Policy Framework Reform Package for the International Investment Regime Global Action Menu for Investment Facilitation Accounting Development Tool Seven core services: Investment databases and research National and international investment policies Investment promotion Responsible investment Business facilitation Entrepreneurship development Accounting and reporting ii World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies

FOREWORD ve are at the dawn of a fourth industrial revolution, propelled by frontier technologie and robotization advances that make production better, cheaper and faster than ever before. This new industrial revolution offers enormous opportunities for economic growth and sustainable development with potential benefits on a scale that is difficult to imagine. New technologies promise possibilities of industrial upgrading and leapfrogging Cheaper transportation and communication, coupled with more efficient logistics, can also help developing countries better link to global value chains. Some of the most advanced emerging economies are already on the verge of becoming global technological leaders in a number of industries Yet, the new economic age and the accelerating pace of technological innot could also result in serious economic disruption and more inequality. Exi investment patterns, for instance, might go through profound and far-reaching changes, in terms of both flows and content. Last year's World Investment Report highlighted the emerging structural impact of the digital economy on foreign direct In this context, developing countries, and least developed countries in particular, face considerable challenges. They range from structural constraints, such as the of adequate infrastructure and scarce Offshoring and relocation towards destinations offering cheaper domestic labour become less relevant in a world of increasingly automated manufacturing. At the ame time, improving living conditions requires creating jobs, which in turn still relies heavily on manufacturing. Developing countries with small markets face additional pressure on their investment policies as companies increasingly look for investment locations offering the best conditions to deliver new and high-quality products rapidly, close to the customer and through flexible production processes Challenges are particularly pronounced in Africa. Despite a period of strong economic growth, the level of economic transformation has been low. The share of manufacturing in the gDP of African countries is small, and it has further declined or stagnated over the past decade. However, manufacturing has the potential of creating a large number of jobs in the formal sector and therefore raising living conditions World Inestment Report 2018 vestment and NEw Industnal Policies

We are at the dawn of a fourth industrial revolution, propelled by frontier technologies and robotization advances that make production better, cheaper and faster than ever before. This new industrial revolution offers enormous opportunities for economic growth and sustainable development with potential benefits on a scale that is difficult to imagine. New technologies promise possibilities of industrial upgrading and leapfrogging. Cheaper transportation and communication, coupled with more efficient logistics, can also help developing countries better link to global value chains. Some of the most advanced emerging economies are already on the verge of becoming global technological leaders in a number of industries. Yet, the new economic age and the accelerating pace of technological innovation could also result in serious economic disruption and more inequality. Existing investment patterns, for instance, might go through profound and far-reaching changes, in terms of both flows and content. Last year’s World Investment Report highlighted the emerging structural impact of the digital economy on foreign direct investment. In this context, developing countries, and least developed countries in particular, face considerable challenges. They range from structural constraints, such as the lack of adequate infrastructure and scarce access to finance, to strategic issues. Offshoring and relocation towards destinations offering cheaper domestic labour become less relevant in a world of increasingly automated manufacturing. At the same time, improving living conditions requires creating jobs, which in turn still relies heavily on manufacturing. Developing countries with small markets face additional pressure on their investment policies as companies increasingly look for investment locations offering the best conditions to deliver new and high-quality products rapidly, close to the customer and through flexible production processes. Challenges are particularly pronounced in Africa. Despite a period of strong economic growth, the level of economic transformation has been low. The share of manufacturing in the GDP of African countries is small, and it has further declined or stagnated over the past decade. However, manufacturing has the potential of creating a large number of jobs in the formal sector and therefore raising living conditions. FOREWORD iv World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies

Confronted with an altering global economic landscape and deep structural reconfiguration, governments around the globe have invigorated their industrial policies in recent years. There is a growing consensus that structural transformation does not occur by itself, but rather requires a proactive policy that facilitates a transition towards new sectors and activities with higher productivity and more value added, while fostering sustainable and inclusive development As they pursue multifaceted objectives, new industrial policies have become more complex and intertwined, wielding multiple instruments, from trade to education Central to these industrial policies is foreign investment. Investment builds and pgrades industries. It connects to international markets. It also drives essential innovation and competitiveness. All in all, the current debate is less about whether governments should intervene, but rather how Industrial policies and accompanying investment policies need to revolve around a clearty articulated vision but, at the same time, they have to contain practical and detailed recommendations, a clear timeline for action and a division of responsibilities among the public and private sectors Against this background, the World Investment Report 2018 aims to provide a better understanding of the interaction between new industrial policies and investment olicies. It provides an overview of industrial policy models-based on an inventory of industrial policies adopted by more than 100 countries over the last decade and the role of investment policies within each model. The Report illustrates how investment policy instruments are used differently across various models and suggests ways to improve the impact of industrial policy through more effective and efficient investment S. Finally, the Report offers recommendations to update existing investment policy instruments, including investment incentives special economic zones, investment facilitation and foreign investment screening mechanisms Building from this Report, UNCTAD will host a discussion of the interface betweer industrial and investment policies at its 6 h World Investment Forum, which will take lace in geneva on 22-26 October 2018 Together, let us work towards finding solutions to ensure that economic change does not create new hardships, but benefits that are widely shared and lead to a etter life for all Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTAD

Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTAD Confronted with an altering global economic landscape and deep structural reconfiguration, governments around the globe have invigorated their industrial policies in recent years. There is a growing consensus that structural transformation does not occur by itself, but rather requires a proactive policy that facilitates a transition towards new sectors and activities with higher productivity and more value added, while fostering sustainable and inclusive development. As they pursue multifaceted objectives, new industrial policies have become more complex and intertwined, wielding multiple instruments, from trade to education. Central to these industrial policies is foreign investment. Investment builds and upgrades industries. It connects to international markets. It also drives essential innovation and competitiveness. All in all, the current debate is less about whether governments should intervene, but rather how. Industrial policies and accompanying investment policies need to revolve around a clearly articulated vision but, at the same time, they have to contain practical and detailed recommendations, a clear timeline for action and a division of responsibilities among the public and private sectors. Against this background, the World Investment Report 2018 aims to provide a better understanding of the interaction between new industrial policies and investment policies. It provides an overview of industrial policy models – based on an inventory of industrial policies adopted by more than 100 countries over the last decade – and the role of investment policies within each model. The Report illustrates how investment policy instruments are used differently across various models and suggests ways to improve the impact of industrial policy through more effective and efficient investment policies. Finally, the Report offers recommendations to update existing investment policy instruments, including investment incentives, special economic zones, investment facilitation and foreign investment screening mechanisms. Building from this Report, UNCTAD will host a discussion of the interface between industrial and investment policies at its 6th World Investment Forum, which will take place in Geneva on 22–26 October 2018. Together, let us work towards finding solutions to ensure that economic change does not create new hardships, but benefits that are widely shared and lead to a better life for all. Key Messages v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The World Investment Report 2018 was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Kalman Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Isya Kresnadi Guoyong Liang, Anthony Miller, Shin Hinata, Diana Roser, William Speller, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee Research support and inputs were provided by Jorun Baumgartner, Juan Carlos Tiffany Grabski, Josse Jakobsen, Kim Kampel, Melinda Kuritzky, Sergey ky, Stella Sakellaridou, Stefanie Schacherer, Sylvie Somerville, llan Strauss Paul Wessendorp and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by marta Kolasinsk fentzislay Kotetzo. Oktawian Kuc Mathabo Le roux, Eduardo lins, abraham Negash and Michelle ngo Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne martinez The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copy- edited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Cortizo designed the charts, maps and infographics; he and Laurence duchemin typeset the report. Production of the report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Jovan Licina, The Report benefited from extensive advice from Harsha Singh on chapter IV. At various stages of preparation, in particular during the expert meetings organize to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts Willy Alfaro, Azar Aliyev, Antonio Andreoni, Nathalie Bernasconi, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, Jonathan Bonnitcha, Damien Charlotin, Manjiao Chi, Xiaolan Fu, Angel Gonzalez Sanz, Nicolas Jansen Calamita, John Kline, Markus Krajewski, Arianna Lundan Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Ted Moran, Rajneesh Narula, Anthea Roberts, Mavluda Sattorova, Esme Shirlow, Jagjit Singh Srai, Heinz Tuselmann, Gus Van Harten Markus Wagner and Philip Wooldridge Also acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General. The United Nations Cartographic Section provided advice for the regional maps Numerous officials of central banks, government agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to the report World Inestment Report 2018 vestment and NEw Industnal Policies

The World Investment Report 2018 was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Kálmán Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Isya Kresnadi, Guoyong Liang, Anthony Miller, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, William Speller, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee. Research support and inputs were provided by Jorun Baumgartner, Juan Carlos Castillo, Tiffany Grabski, Josse Jakobsen, Kim Kampel, Melinda Kuritzky, Sergey Ripinsky, Stella Sakellaridou, Stefanie Schacherer, Sylvie Somerville, Ilan Strauss, Paul Wessendorp and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by Marta Kolasinska, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Oktawian Kuc, Mathabo Le Roux, Eduardo Lins, Abraham Negash and Michelle Ngo. Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne Martinez. The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copyedited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Cortizo designed the charts, maps and infographics; he and Laurence Duchemin typeset the report. Production of the report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Jovan Licina, Sivanla Sikounnavong and Katia Vieu. The Report benefited from extensive advice from Harsha Singh on chapter IV. At various stages of preparation, in particular during the expert meetings organized to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts: Willy Alfaro, Azar Aliyev, Antonio Andreoni, Nathalie Bernasconi, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, Jonathan Bonnitcha, Damien Charlotin, Manjiao Chi, Xiaolan Fu, Angel GonzalezSanz, Nicolas Jansen Calamita, John Kline, Markus Krajewski, Sarianna Lundan, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Ted Moran, Rajneesh Narula, Anthea Roberts, Mavluda Sattorova, Esme Shirlow, Jagjit Singh Srai, Heinz Tüselmann, Gus Van Harten, Markus Wagner and Philip Wooldridge. Also acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General. The United Nations Cartographic Section provided advice for the regional maps. Numerous officials of central banks, government agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to the report. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vi World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies

KEY MESSAGES INVESTMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23 per cent to $1.43 trillion. This is in stark contrast to the accelerated growth in GDP and trade. The fall was caused in part by a 22 per cent decrease in the value of crossborder mergers and acquisitions (M&As). But even discounting the large one-off deals and corporate restructurings that inflated FDI numbers in 2016, the 2017 decline remained significant. The value of announced greenfield investment – an indicator of future trends – also decreased by 14 per cent. FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion, seeing no recovery following the 10 per cent drop in 2016. • FDI flows to Africa continued to slide, reaching $42 billion, down 21 per cent from 2016. The decline was concentrated in the larger commodity exporters. • Flows to developing Asia remained stable, at $476 billion. The region regained its position as the largest FDI recipient in the world. • FDI to Latin America and the Caribbean rose 8 per cent to reach $151 billion, lifted by that region’s economic recovery. This was the first rise in six years, but inflows remain well below the 2011 peak during the commodities boom. • FDI in structurally weak and vulnerable economies remained fragile. Flows to the least developed countries fell by 17 per cent, to $26 billion. Those to landlocked developing countries increased moderately, by 3 per cent, to $23 billion. Small island developing States saw their inflows increase by 4 per cent, to $4.1 billion. Inward FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 37 per cent, to $712 billion. Cross-border M&As registered a 29 per cent decrease, with fewer of the megadeals and corporate restructurings that shaped global investment Total IIAs 3 322 18 in 2017 + ISDS cases 65New chaper 1-2 chaper 3 FDI downward trend Developed $712 bn Developing $671 bn Transition $47 bn 2005–2017 84% 16% Restriction/Regulation Liberalization/Promotion National investment policy measures - $1.43 trillion 23% Global FDI 2017 90of %Global GDP Formal industrial development strategies: 101 countries Strategiesand measures Industrial policy packages Top 100 lead the way Gender balanced leadershipSpecial economic zones Facilitation & IPAs Screening procedures Investment Policy Tools Investment incentives Modern industrial & synergy Coherence policies Growth in GVCs has stagnated + viii World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies

patterns in 2016. The strong decrease in inflows was in large part the effect of a return to prior levels in the United Kingdom and the United States, after spikes in 2016. FDI flows to transition economies declined by 27 per cent, to $47 billion, the second lowest level since 2005. The decline reflects geopolitical uncertainties and sluggish investment in natural resources. Projections for global FDI in 2018 show fragile growth. Global flows are forecast to increase marginally, by up to 10 per cent, but remain below the average over the past 10 years. Higher economic growth projections, trade volumes and commodity prices would normally point to a larger potential increase in global FDI in 2018. However, risks are significant, and policy uncertainty abounds. Escalation and broadening of trade tensions could negatively affect investment in global value chains (GVCs). In addition, tax reforms in the United States and greater tax competition are likely to significantly affect global investment patterns. A decrease in rates of return is a contributor to the investment downturn. The global average return on foreign investment is now at 6.7 per cent, down from 8.1 per cent in 2012. Return on investment is in decline across all regions, with the sharpest drops in Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean. The lower returns on foreign assets may affect longer-term FDI prospects. FDI activity was lower across all sectors. M&A values were down in the primary, manufacturing and services sectors. The fall in greenfield announcements in 2017 was concentrated in services. However, over the past five years, the level of greenfield projects in manufacturing has been consistently lower than in the preceding five-year period across all developing regions. This has important implications for industrial development. The sharp fall in global FDI contrasted with the trend in other cross-border capital flows. Total capital flows increased from 5.6 to 6.9 per cent of GDP, as bank lending and portfolio investment compensated for the FDI slump. Capital flows to developing countries increased modestly, from 4.0 to 4.8 per cent of GDP. Total IIAs 3 322 18 in 2017 + ISDS cases 65New chaper 1-2 chaper 3 FDI downward trend Developed $712 bn Developing $671 bn Transition $47 bn 2005–2017 84% 16% Restriction/Regulation Liberalization/Promotion National investment policy measures - $1.43 trillion 23% Global FDI 2017 90of %Global GDP Formal industrial development strategies: 101 countries Strategiesand measures Industrial policy packages Top 100 lead the way Gender balanced leadershipSpecial economic zones Facilitation & IPAs Screening procedures Investment Policy Tools Investment incentives Modern industrial & synergy Coherence policies Growth in GVCs has stagnated + Key Messages ix