《货币经济学》课程文献阅读：日本银行货币报告（2018Q4）.pdf_大学文库

3 moving into managerial positions also should increase. In fact, the share of managerial positions occupied by women has been on a rising trend. 2 Moreover, Chart 2 also shows that employment of the elderly has been growing. However, in the case of the elderly, the share of non-regular employees has been rising. The reason is likely that many are hired as temporary or part-time workers after reaching retirement age. 2 For details, see Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, FY2017 Basic Survey of Gender Equality in Employment Management (available only in Japanese), July 2018. Chart 2 Employment of Women and the Elderly 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Feb. 1984 Feb. 86 Feb. 88 Feb. 90 Feb. 92 Feb. 94 Feb. 96 Feb. 98 Aug. 99 Aug. 2000 Aug. 01 02/Q2 02/Q4 03/Q2 03/Q4 04/Q2 04/Q4 05/Q2 05/Q4 06/Q2 06/Q4 07/Q2 07/Q4 08/Q2 08/Q4 09/Q2 09/Q4 10/Q2 10/Q4 11/Q2 11/Q4 12/Q2 12/Q4 13/Q2 13/Q4 14/Q2 14/Q4 15/Q2 15/Q4 16/Q2 16/Q4 17/Q2 17/Q4 18/Q2 18/Q4 Number of regular employees (both sexes, aged 65 years and over) Number of non-regular employees (both sexes, aged 65 years and over) Number of regular employees (female) Number of non-regular employees (female) Rate of non-regular employees (female, right scale) Rate of non-regular employees (both sexes, aged 65 years and over, right scale) Rate of non-regular employees (both sexes, aged 15-64 years, right scale) mil. persons Introduction of QQE % Note: Regular employees and non-regular employees exclude executives of companies and corporations. The figures for "Before QQE" and "After QQE" show the annualized growth rates of employees from 2008/Q1 to 2013/Q1 and those from 2013/Q1 to 2018/Q4, respectively. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey." Before QQE After QQE Non-regular employees(female) +1.2% (annualized) +2.6% Regular employees (female) +0.2% (annualized) +2.0% Before QQE After QQE Non-regular employees(both sexes, aged 65 years and over) +5.7% (annualized) +12.1% Regular employees (both sexes, aged 65 years and over) +3.7% (annualized) +6.9%

Because Japan 's population is aging, this means that it is unlikely that the share of non-regular employees in employment as a whole will decrease. However, looking at employees between 15 and 64 years of age, the share of non-regular employees has been declining since around 2014 While it is difficult for the elderly to obtain regular employment, the fact is that more and more are gaining the opportunity to work. In September 2017, the government launched the Council for Designing a 100-Year Life Society, "and in June 2018 it released the report B Jasic [ Design for the Human Resources Development Revolution, " calling for increased employment of the elderly At the same time, however, the proliferation of the notion of a 100-Year Life"may have made people aware of the longevity risk again, which may have led to the rise in the savings rate, or in other words, the decline in the consumption rate, which I will talk about later Decrease in suicides When unable to find a job in the face of a difficult employment situation, being under such stress causes one to question their worth to society. Indeed, studies show that suicides increase in tandem with a rise in the number of unemployed. Assuming that this is true, suicides should decrease if the unemployment rate were to decline. Chart 3, which shows the number of suicides and the unemployment rate, indicates that the two are linked: as the unemployment rate rises, the number of suicides increases, and vice versa. While i do not think that suicides are caused by economic problems alone, what is clear is that the number of suicides per year has fallen by 7,000 or more since 2012 as a result of the upturn in the economy and the decline in the unemployment rate 3 At the G-20 Symposium"For a Better Future: Demographic Changes and Macroeconomi Challenges" held in January 2019, seven out of 13 speakers stressed the importance of labor force participation by the elderly in overcoming demographic challenges posed by the aging I ee, for example, Yasuyuki Sawada, Michiko Ueda, and Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Economic Analysis of Suicide Prevention Towards Evidence-Based Policy-Making, Singapore: Springer, 2017

4 Because Japan's population is aging, this means that it is unlikely that the share of non-regular employees in employment as a whole will decrease. However, looking at employees between 15 and 64 years of age, the share of non-regular employees has been declining since around 2014. While it is difficult for the elderly to obtain regular employment, the fact is that more and more are gaining the opportunity to work. In September 2017, the government launched the "Council for Designing a 100-Year Life Society," and in June 2018 it released the report "[B]asic [D]esign for the Human Resources Development Revolution," calling for increased employment of the elderly.3 At the same time, however, the proliferation of the notion of a "100-Year Life" may have made people aware of the longevity risk again, which may have led to the rise in the savings rate, or in other words, the decline in the consumption rate, which I will talk about later. Decrease in Suicides When unable to find a job in the face of a difficult employment situation, being under such stress causes one to question their worth to society. Indeed, studies show that suicides increase in tandem with a rise in the number of unemployed.4 Assuming that this is true, suicides should decrease if the unemployment rate were to decline. Chart 3, which shows the number of suicides and the unemployment rate, indicates that the two are linked: as the unemployment rate rises, the number of suicides increases, and vice versa. While I do not think that suicides are caused by economic problems alone, what is clear is that the number of suicides per year has fallen by 7,000 or more since 2012 as a result of the upturn in the economy and the decline in the unemployment rate. 3 At the G-20 Symposium "For a Better Future: Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Challenges" held in January 2019, seven out of 13 speakers stressed the importance of labor force participation by the elderly in overcoming demographic challenges posed by the aging population. 4 See, for example, Yasuyuki Sawada, Michiko Ueda, and Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Economic Analysis of Suicide Prevention Towards Evidence-Based Policy-Making, Singapore: Springer, 2017

birth rate around this time There turned out to be no such increase however. The reason is that, during the approximate period from 1995 to 2005 and in the few years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, young people of this generation were not able to find stable employment due to the so-called employment ice age, which led them to think twice about marriage and having children. ,0 Put differently, had QQe been introduced at an earlier stage, second-generation baby boomers would not have had to cope with the repercussions of the employment ice age, likely resulting in an increase in th number of live births from around 1995 Improvement in Government Finances An improvement in employment means that incomes increase. Firms hire people because their profits are rising. When employment grows, both profits and wages increase. When there is an increase in profits and wages--that is, the income of the country as a whole the government's tax revenue also rises. Chart 5 shows the general government fiscal balance(relative to GDP)and government debt(also relative to GDP). While Japans fiscal situation is severe, its deficit in fiscal 2017 shrank to 2.7 percent of GDP. Compared with a deficit of 8.3 percent in fiscal 2012, this is an improvement of about 5.5 percentage point The reason is that the economy has been doing well and the governments tax revenue has been increasing. The increase in tax revenue due to the consumption tax hike from 5 to 8 percent is said to amount to about 8 trillion yen(1.5 percent of GDP). while the remaining improvement of 4.0 percentage points is partly attributable to the effects of a positive turnaround in overseas economies, it owes in large part to the improvement in the economy 5 For details on the employment ice age, see Genda Yuji et al, Shiishoku hyogaki sedai no keizai shakai e no eikyo to taisaku ni kansuru kenkyii iinkai hokokusho, Research Institute for Advancement of Living Standards, November 2016 6 In his recent book, former Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa argues that the immediate respo of many major Japanese firms to the large demand shock brought about by the bursting of the bubble and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 was to reduce graduate recruitment and increase non-regular employment. During this so-called employment ice age, the young bore the brunt of the employment adjustment. University graduates entering the labor market during this time the so-called second-generation baby boomers- found it difficult to accumulate sufficient skill as young workers, leading to lower income levels, which in turn has had a lasting social impact including an increase in the rate of those who are unmarried and the consequent decrease in the number of births(available only in Japanese). Shirakawa Masaaki, Chio ginko (Tokyo: Toyo Keizai, 2018),p.112

7 birth rate around this time. There turned out to be no such increase, however. The reason is that, during the approximate period from 1995 to 2005 and in the few years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, young people of this generation were not able to find stable employment due to the so-called employment ice age, which led them to think twice about marriage and having children. 5 , 6 Put differently, had QQE been introduced at an earlier stage, second-generation baby boomers would not have had to cope with the repercussions of the employment ice age, likely resulting in an increase in the number of live births from around 1995. Improvement in Government Finances An improvement in employment means that incomes increase. Firms hire people because their profits are rising. When employment grows, both profits and wages increase. When there is an increase in profits and wages -- that is, the income of the country as a whole -- the government's tax revenue also rises. Chart 5 shows the general government fiscal balance (relative to GDP) and government debt (also relative to GDP). While Japan's fiscal situation is severe, its deficit in fiscal 2017 shrank to 2.7 percent of GDP. Compared with a deficit of 8.3 percent in fiscal 2012, this is an improvement of about 5.5 percentage points. The reason is that the economy has been doing well and the government's tax revenue has been increasing. The increase in tax revenue due to the consumption tax hike from 5 to 8 percent is said to amount to about 8 trillion yen (1.5 percent of GDP). While the remaining improvement of 4.0 percentage points is partly attributable to the effects of a positive turnaround in overseas economies, it owes in large part to the improvement in the economy 5 For details on the employment ice age, see Genda Yuji et. al, Shūshoku hyōgaki sedai no keizai shakai e no eikyō to taisaku ni kansuru kenkyū iinkai hōkokusho, Research Institute for Advancement of Living Standards, November 2016. 6 In his recent book, former Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa argues that the immediate response of many major Japanese firms to the large demand shock brought about by the bursting of the bubble and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 was to reduce graduate recruitment and increase non-regular employment. During this so-called employment ice age, the young bore the brunt of the employment adjustment. University graduates entering the labor market during this time -- the so-called second-generation baby boomers -- found it difficult to accumulate sufficient skills as young workers, leading to lower income levels, which in turn has had a lasting social impact including an increase in the rate of those who are unmarried and the consequent decrease in the number of births (available only in Japanese). Shirakawa Masaaki, Chūō Ginkō (Tokyo: Toyo Keizai, 2018), p. 112