Human estimation cue Integration 16.422 Humans as intuitive statisticians Good at estimating means, reasonably good at mid-range roportions · Not good on the tails Not so good at estimating variances and correlations Also not good at extrapolating non-linear trends Underestimate exponential growth Cue assimilation issues Missing Information overload Salience Underestimate cues that require calculation The need for heuristicsHuman Estimation & Cue Integration 16.422 • Humans as intuitive statisticians – Good at estimating means, reasonably good at mid-range proportions • Not good on the tails – Not so good at estimating variances and correlations – Also not good at extrapolating non-linear trends • Underestimate exponential growth • Cue assimilation issues – Missing – Information overload – S a l i e n c e • Underestimate cues that requi re calculation – The need for heuristics