GDP(-1) -0.822444 0.147359 -5.581213 0.0000 EXCHANGE -4.290746 8.348744 -0.513939 0.6135 EXCHANGEA2 -0.018637 0.008353 -2.2311620.0386 R-squared 0.978691 Mean dependent var 8434.222 Adjusted R-squared 0.973956 S.D.dependent var 9025.326 S.E.of regression 1456.525 Akaike info criterion 17.59515 Sum squared resid 38186370 Schwarz criterion 17.84200 Log likelihood -197.3443 F-statistic 206.6799 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962659 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 其中，exchange的系数在统计意义上不显若，可以剔除，则有： Dependent Variable:IM Method:Least Squares Date:0710805Time:15:43 Sample(adjusted):19812003 Included observations:23 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob -1159.179 511.0396 -2.268276 0.0352 GDP 1.1428970.148119 7.7160700.0000 GDP(-1) -0.8158420.143928-5.6684200.0000 EXCHANGE*2 -0.0225690.003291 -6.857844 0.0000 51 51 GDP(-1) -0.822444 0.147359 -5.581213 0.0000 EXCHANGE -4.290746 8.348744 -0.513939 0.6135 EXCHANGE^2 -0.018637 0.008353 -2.231162 0.0386 R-squared 0.978691 Mean dependent var 8434.222 Adjusted R-squared 0.973956 S.D. dependent var 9025.326 S.E. of regression 1456.525 Akaike info criterion 17.59515 Sum squared resid 38186370 Schwarz criterion 17.84200 Log likelihood -197.3443 F-statistic 206.6799 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962659 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 其中，exchange 的系数在统计意义上不显著，可以剔除，则有： Dependent Variable: IM Method: Least Squares Date: 07/08/05 Time: 15:43 Sample (adjusted): 1981 2003 Included observations: 23 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1159.179 511.0396 -2.268276 0.0352 GDP 1.142897 0.148119 7.716070 0.0000 GDP(-1) -0.815842 0.143928 -5.668420 0.0000 EXCHANGE^2 -0.022569 0.003291 -6.857844 0.0000