经济地 28卷 充足时,政府只需鼓励粮食生产,维持一定水平的粮食复种指要,推广政策有缺陷等问题。应进一步深入实施粮食品种、技 数,同时有效引导农业多种经营,变被动的耕地闲置方式为主术、知识更新工程,完善农业科技推广服务体系,提高我国粮 动的闲置方式;另一面,在粮食紧缺时,需要政府宏观调控,加食单产和质量 大投入通过行政的经济的手段强制提高粮食复种指数,以参考文献 实现粮食生产能力 43加强农业科技投入 1]封志明,李香莲.耕地与粮食安全战略:藏粮于土,提高中国土地 半个世纪以来,中国农业科技为全国农业和农村经济的 资源的综合生产能力]地理学与国土研究200016(3):1-5 发展做出了重大贡献。科技进步在农业生产中的贡献份额,[2]杨正礼,卫鸿我国粮食安全的基础在于“减粮于田”口,科技 己从“六五”期间的30%左右提高到现在的45%。然而,与发 导报,2004,(9):14·16 达国家60%-80%农业科技贡献率相比,还存在相当大的差5陈百明中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力M]气象 距。据不完全统计,中国农业科技成果转化率仅为30% 出版社,001 35%,形成规模的不到20%,远低于世界发达国家m0%—【4]杨正礼,梅旭荣试论中国粮食安全的三大关联战略农业现 代化研究200526(2):81-84 80%的水平。有关人士分析,如果将这些先进适用技术普遢5]杨正礼,梅旭荣,黄鸿翔,徐明岗论中国农田生态保育]生态 推广应用于生产,至少可使粮食增产10%-50%为充分发 挥我国科技进步在粮食综合产出增长中的作用,应推进科技(6]范锦龙,吴炳方复种指数遥感监测方法U1.遥感学报,2008 进步,加大对与提高粮食单产有关技术措施的支持力度。农 (6):628-636 用物资的保证供应是提高单产的物质基础,农业技术的推广(7]周小萍,程锋,杨声坤,陈百明中国不同来源复种指数比较及 与普及是实现稳产高产的技术保证。目前我国的农业技术推 其扩种增产潜力测算J].中国人口喷源与环境,2006,16(1) 广工作远不能适应生产发展的需要,普遍存在着投资不足,专 105-108. 业人员少,农技推广体制不合理,推广方式不适应市场经济需 EVAL UATING GRAIN PROD UCTIVE CAPACITY OF CHINA FORSTORING FOOD IN LAND ZHOU Xiao- ping, CHEN Bai-ming, ZHANG Tian-ding (1. School of Management, BNU/Real Estate Research Center, BNU, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China) Abstract: From the point of stratagem of storing food in land, and combined with the Chinese actual situation, this paper designed the evala ation frame of grain practical productive capacity. The unused grain productive capacity is considered as constitution of storing food capacity show: Practical productive capacity is 51 127. 23 X10'kg, and increment of grain productive capacity in future is 4 180. 33 X10 kg. The grain productivity capacity of"storing food in land"is 8% of practical grain yield. The grain growth potential is large in our country, and increment by increasing cropping index is 70 %, which is the main part of the grain productivity capacity of " storing food in land". Taking 400kg grain possessing for per capita, Chinas grain self- sufficient ratio can increase 8 percentages, which indicated that the food security is realizable in China under the current condition of ecommic techology and stratagem of storing food in land is especially important for the food security in our country. As a conclusion, this paper brings forward the guarantee mechanism and measure to realize stratagem of storing food in land Namely, constructing econmic conversation mechanism of grain comprehensive productivity, increasing cropping index and strengthening agr ience and technolo Key words: storing food in land"; grain comprehensive productive capacity food security 作者简介:周小萍(1976→,女,湖南沅江人,博士,讲师。研究方向为土地资源利用与管理。E·mail: xiaopingzhbu@126.oom← 201994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicpUblishingHouse.Allrightsreservedhttp://www.cnki.net充足时 ,政府只需鼓励粮食生产 ,维持一定水平的粮食复种指 数 ,同时有效引导农业多种经营 ,变被动的耕地闲置方式为主 动的闲置方式 ;另一面 ,在粮食紧缺时 ,需要政府宏观调控 ,加 大投入 ,通过行政的、经济的手段强制提高粮食复种指数 ,以 实现粮食生产能力。 4. 3 加强农业科技投入 半个世纪以来 ,中国农业科技为全国农业和农村经济的 发展做出了重大贡献。科技进步在农业生产中的贡献份额 , 已从“六五”期间的 30 %左右提高到现在的 45 %。然而 ,与发 达国家 60 % —80 %农业科技贡献率相比 ,还存在相当大的差 距。据不完全统计 ,中国农业科技成果转化率仅为 30 % — 35 % ,形成规模的不到 20 % ,远低于世界发达国家 70 % — 80 %的水平。有关人士分析 ,如果将这些先进适用技术普遍 推广应用于生产 ,至少可使粮食增产 10 % —50 %。为充分发 挥我国科技进步在粮食综合产出增长中的作用 ,应推进科技 进步 ,加大对与提高粮食单产有关技术措施的支持力度。农 用物资的保证供应是提高单产的物质基础 ,农业技术的推广 与普及是实现稳产高产的技术保证。目前我国的农业技术推 广工作远不能适应生产发展的需要 ,普遍存在着投资不足 ,专 业人员少 ,农技推广体制不合理 ,推广方式不适应市场经济需 要 ,推广政策有缺陷等问题。应进一步深入实施粮食品种、技 术、知识更新工程 ,完善农业科技推广服务体系 ,提高我国粮 食单产和质量。 参考文献 : [1 ] 封志明 ,李香莲. 耕地与粮食安全战略 :藏粮于土 ,提高中国土地 资源的综合生产能力[J ] . 地理学与国土研究 ,2000 ,16(3) :1 - 5. [2 ] 杨正礼 ,卫 鸿. 我国粮食安全的基础在于“藏粮于田”[J ] . 科技 导报 ,2004 ,(9) :14 - 16. [3 ] 陈百明. 中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力[M] . 气象 出版社 ,2001. [4 ] 杨正礼 ,梅旭荣. 试论中国粮食安全的三大关联战略[J ] . 农业现 代化研究 ,2005 ,26(2) :81 - 84. [5 ] 杨正礼 ,梅旭荣 ,黄鸿翔 ,徐明岗. 论中国农田生态保育[J ] . 生态 农业科学 ,2005 ,21(4) :80 - 84 ,314. [6 ] 范锦龙 ,吴炳方. 复种指数遥感监测方法[J ] . 遥感学报 ,2004 ,8 (6) :628 - 636. [7 ] 周小萍 ,程 锋 ,杨声坤 ,陈百明. 中国不同来源复种指数比较及 其扩种增产潜力测算[J ] . 中国人口·资源与环境 ,2006 ,16 (1) : 105 - 108. EVAL UATING GRAIN PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY OF CHINA FOR“STORING FOOD IN LAND” ZHOU Xiao - ping1 ,CHEN Bai - ming2 ,ZHANG Tian - ding1 (1. School of Management ,BNUΠReal Estate Research Center ,BNU ,Beijing 100875 ,China ; 2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research ,CAS ,Beijing 100101 ,China) Abstract:From the point of stratagem of storing food in land , and combined with the Chinese actual situation , this paper designed the evalu2 ation frame of grain practical productive capacity. The unused grain productive capacity is considered as constitution of storing food capacity currently. Using this evaluation frame , this paper calculated the grain practical productive capacity on stratagem of storing food in land. Result show : Practical productive capacity is 51 127. 23×107 kg , and increment of grain productive capacity in future is 4 180. 33×107 kg. The grain productivity capacity of“storing food in land”is 8 % of practical grain yield. The grain growth potential is large in our country , and increment by increasing cropping index is 70 % ,which is the main part of the grain productivity capacity of“storing food in land”. Taking 400kg grain possessing for per capita , China’s grain self - sufficient ratio can increase 8 percentages , which indicated that the food security is realizable in China under the current condition of economic technology and stratagem of storing food in land is especially important for the food security in our country. As a conclusion , this paper brings forward the guarantee mechanism and measure to realize stratagem of storing food in land. Namely , constructing economic conversation mechanism of grain comprehensive productivity , increasing cropping index and strengthening agri2 cultural science and technology devotion. Key words“: storing food in land”; grain comprehensive productive capacity ; food security 作者简介 :周小萍(1976 —) ,女 ,湖南沅江人 ,博士 ,讲师。研究方向为土地资源利用与管理。E - mail :xiaopingzhou @126. com。 874 经 济 地 理 28 卷