第15卷第1期 智能系统学报 Vol.15 No.1 2020年1月 CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems Jan.2020 D0L:10.11992tis.201911002 少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生 概率分布确定方法 崔铁军2，李莎莎3 (1.辽宁工程技术大学，安全科学与工程学院，过宁阜新123000；2.大连交通大学辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程 技术研究中心，辽宁大连116028,3.辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院，辽宁葫芦岛125105) 摘要：为了在获得少故障数据条件下得到适合的系统故障演化过程(system fault evolution process,SFEP)中最 终事件发生概率分布，提出一种考虑信息扩散且数据较少情况下的最终事件发生概率分布计算方法。该方法 利用信息扩散原理以事件发生时因素为中心在研究区域内形成正态分布。同一事件的多次发生在研究区域中 取最大值形成该事件发生概率分布，从而得到SFEP中边缘事件发生概率分布。将SFN中事件关系表示为关 系组从而叠加关系，得到最终事件发生概率分布解析式计算分布。研究表明，所得结果与原有精确结果具有较 高的符合性，但所需故障数据则少得多。可借助该方法在少故障数据条件下研究SEP最终事件发生特征。 关键词：安全系统工程；空间故障网络；系统故障演化过程；少故障数据：信息扩散；最终事件发生概率 中图分类号：TP18,X91文献标志码：A文章编号：1673-4785(2020)01-0136-08 中文引用格式：崔铁军，李莎莎.少故障数据条件下SFEP最终事件发生概率分布确定方法J.智能系统学报，2020,15(1)： 136-143. 英文引用格式：CUITiejun,LI Shasha..Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J].CAAI transactions on intelligent systems,2020,15(1):136-143. Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data CUI Tiejun,LI Shasha' (1.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China;2.Tunnel Underground Structure Engineering Center of Liaoning,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028 China;3.School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125105,China) Abstract:To get suitable probability distribution of the target event in the system fault evolution process(SFEP)with less fault data,we propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event occurrence consider- ing the information diffusion and less data.This method uses the information diffusion principle to form a normal distri- bution in the study area with the factors at the event occurrence as the center.Take the maximum value for many times of occurrence of the same event in the study area,forming the probability distribution of the event occurrence. Thereby,the probability distribution of the edge event occurrence in the SFEP is obtained.The event relationships in SFN are expressed as relationship set and then the relationships are superposed,and the analytic formula of probability distribution of target event occurrence is obtained.The research shows that the results are in good agreement with the original accurate results with much less fault data.This method can be used to study the target event occurrence charac- teristics of SFEP under the condition of less fault data. Keywords:safety system engineering;space fault network;system fault evolution process;less fault data;information diffusion;target event occurrence probability 系统发生故障的过程涉及因素很多，在相同 收稿日期：2019-11-06. 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(51704141)：国家重点研发 因素作用下也可能经历不同的发展过程。这些过 计划项目(2017Y下℃1503102)：国家自然科学基金委 主任基金项目(61350003). 程各具特征，涉及的事件也是不同的。因此在研 通信作者：崔铁军.E-mail:ctj.159@163.com 究SFEP时首先要解决过程的描述问题。作者在DOI: 10.11992/tis.201911002 少故障数据条件下 SFEP 最终事件发生 概率分布确定方法 崔铁军1,2，李莎莎3 （1. 辽宁工程技术大学，安全科学与工程学院，辽宁 阜新 123000; 2. 大连交通大学 辽宁省隧道与地下结构工程 技术研究中心，辽宁 大连 116028; 3. 辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院，辽宁 葫芦岛 125105） 摘 要：为了在获得少故障数据条件下得到适合的系统故障演化过程（system fault evolution process，SFEP）中最 终事件发生概率分布，提出一种考虑信息扩散且数据较少情况下的最终事件发生概率分布计算方法。该方法 利用信息扩散原理以事件发生时因素为中心在研究区域内形成正态分布。同一事件的多次发生在研究区域中 取最大值形成该事件发生概率分布，从而得到 SFEP 中边缘事件发生概率分布。将 SFN 中事件关系表示为关 系组从而叠加关系，得到最终事件发生概率分布解析式计算分布。研究表明，所得结果与原有精确结果具有较 高的符合性，但所需故障数据则少得多。可借助该方法在少故障数据条件下研究 SFEP 最终事件发生特征。 关键词：安全系统工程；空间故障网络；系统故障演化过程；少故障数据；信息扩散；最终事件发生概率 中图分类号：TP18; X91 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673−4785(2020)01−0136−08 中文引用格式：崔铁军, 李莎莎. 少故障数据条件下 SFEP 最终事件发生概率分布确定方法 [J]. 智能系统学报, 2020, 15(1): 136–143. 英文引用格式：CUI Tiejun, LI Shasha. Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data[J]. CAAI transactions on intelligent systems, 2020, 15(1): 136–143. Determination method of target event occurrence probability in SFEP under the condition of less fault data CUI Tiejun1,2 ，LI Shasha3 (1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, China; 2. Tunnel & Underground Structure Engineering Center of Liaoning, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028 China; 3. School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao 125105, China) Abstract: To get suitable probability distribution of the target event in the system fault evolution process (SFEP) with less fault data, we propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event occurrence consider￾ing the information diffusion and less data. This method uses the information diffusion principle to form a normal distri￾bution in the study area with the factors at the event occurrence as the center. Take the maximum value for many times of occurrence of the same event in the study area, forming the probability distribution of the event occurrence. Thereby, the probability distribution of the edge event occurrence in the SFEP is obtained. The event relationships in SFN are expressed as relationship set and then the relationships are superposed, and the analytic formula of probability distribution of target event occurrence is obtained. The research shows that the results are in good agreement with the original accurate results with much less fault data. This method can be used to study the target event occurrence charac￾teristics of SFEP under the condition of less fault data. Keywords: safety system engineering; space fault network; system fault evolution process; less fault data; information diffusion; target event occurrence probability 系统发生故障的过程涉及因素很多，在相同 因素作用下也可能经历不同的发展过程。这些过 程各具特征，涉及的事件也是不同的。因此在研 究 SFEP 时首先要解决过程的描述问题。作者在 收稿日期：2019−11−06. 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目 (51704141)；国家重点研发 计划项目 (2017YFC1503102)；国家自然科学基金委 主任基金项目 (61350003). 通信作者：崔铁军. E-mail：ctj.159@163.com. 第 15 卷第 1 期 智 能 系 统 学 报 Vol.15 No.1 2020 年 1 月 CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems Jan. 2020