2000 THE CHINESE FAMINE OF 1959-61 punished those who resisted orders. The formation of large-scale people's communes provided opportunities to the cadres to mobilise large amounts of grain(Bernstein, 1984). The result of the procurement campaign in 1959 was astonishing. The state managed to increase grain collection by about 24%even though actual grain output plunged by 15%o Accompanying the sharp reduction in food supply and excessive procure ment was massive famine in China for three consecutive years between 1959 and 1961. However. this famine went unnoticed outside of China until the release of important demographic data by the Chinese government in the early 1980s. In a careful study of the population statistics by interpolating between pre- and post famine mortality levels, Ashton et al.(1984)concluded that'the number of excess deaths during the crisis amounts to about 17. 3 million deaths over the age of 10 and 12.2 million deaths under age 10, giving a tota of almost 30 million excess deaths. Measured by number of deaths, this disaster is, undoubtedly, the worst famine in the history of the world Table 2 presents summary statistics for the period 1954-66 on the Chinese population, its death rate, and birth rate, including separate accounts for rural nd urban areas. Largely an agrarian economy, the share of rural population ras above 80% in the entire period. The death and birth figures clearly demonstrate a major demographic catastrophe between 1959 and 1961. The national death rate increased from 11.98 per thousand in 1958 to 14.59 per Table 2 Summary Statistics of Population, Death Rate and Birth Population Death Rate c Nation Country Nation City Country Nation Ci Year( millions)(%)(%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.1%) 1954 60266 13.786.313.188.0713.713797424537.51 1956 628.28 14.685.411 1184319037.8 659.94 672.0 184 14.5910.9214.6 662.0 25.4313.77 1962 67295 17.382.710.028.2810 370735 37.27 691.72 70499 840 10.04 43.19 1.61150 39.1432.1740.27 745.4217981.18835.599.4735.0520.8536.71 Source: State Statistical Bureau, Statistical Yearbook of China 1991, Beijing: State Statistical Press, 1991 PP talk in ok given by the Food and Agricultural orgar n of the united Nations still would not beli at the famine actually occurred in China. In 1960, he had travelled for two weeks from the northe the south of countries. However, his trips were restricted to cities, and he did not visit the rural areas c Royal Economic Society 2000punished those who resisted orders. The formation of large-scale people's communes provided opportunities to the cadres to mobilise large amounts of grain (Bernstein, 1984). The result of the procurement campaign in 1959 was astonishing. The state managed to increase grain collection by about 24% even though actual grain output plunged by 15%. Accompanying the sharp reduction in food supply and excessive procure￾ment was massive famine in China for three consecutive years between 1959 and 1961. However, this famine went unnoticed outside of China until the release of important demographic data by the Chinese government in the early 1980s.23 In a careful study of the population statistics by interpolating between pre- and post famine mortality levels, Ashton et al. (1984) concluded that `the number of excess deaths during the crisis amounts to about 17.3 million deaths over the age of 10 and 12.2 million deaths under age 10, giving a total of almost 30 million excess deaths.' Measured by number of deaths, this disaster is, undoubtedly, the worst famine in the history of the world. Table 2 presents summary statistics for the period 1954±66 on the Chinese population, its death rate, and birth rate, including separate accounts for rural and urban areas. Largely an agrarian economy, the share of rural population was above 80% in the entire period. The death and birth ®gures clearly demonstrate a major demographic catastrophe between 1959 and 1961. The national death rate increased from 11.98 per thousand in 1958 to 14.59 per 23 During discussions at a recent talk in Bangkok given by one of the authors, a senior of®cial from the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations still would not believe that the famine actually occurred in China. In 1960, he had travelled for two weeks from the northeast to the south of China and did not observe the usual signs that he observed in the incidence of famine in other countries. However, his trips were restricted to cities, and he did not visit the rural areas. Table 2. Summary Statistics of Population, Death Rate and Birth Rate Population Death Rate Birth Rate Year Nation (millions) City (%) Country (%) Nation (0.1%) City (0.1%) Country (0.1%) Nation (0.1%) City (0.1%) Country (0.1%) 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 602.66 614.65 628.28 646.53 659.94 13.7 13.5 14.6 15.4 16.2 86.3 86.5 85.4 84.6 83.8 13.18 12.28 11.40 10.80 11.98 8.07 9.30 7.43 8.47 9.22 13.71 12.60 11.84 11.07 12.50 37.97 32.60 31.90 34.03 29.22 42.45 40.67 37.87 44.48 33.55 37.51 31.74 31.24 32.81 28.41 1959 1960 1961 672.07 662.07 658.59 18.4 19.7 19.3 81.6 80.3 80.7 14.59 25.43 14.24 10.92 13.77 11.39 14.61 28.58 14.58 24.78 20.86 18.02 29.43 28.03 21.63 23.78 19.35 16.99 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 672.95 691.72 704.99 725.38 745.42 17.3 16.8 18.4 18.0 17.9 82.7 83.2 81.6 82.0 81.1 10.02 10.04 11.50 9.50 8.83 8.28 7.13 7.27 5.69 5.59 10.32 10.49 12.17 10.06 9.47 37.07 43.37 39.14 37.88 35.05 35.46 44.50 32.17 26.59 20.85 37.27 43.19 40.27 39.53 36.71 Source : State Statistical Bureau, Statistical Yearbook of China 1991, Beijing: State Statistical Press, 1991, pp. 79±80. 2000] 145 THE CHINESE FAMINE OF 1959±61 # Royal Economic Society 2000