Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant 749 rural consumers have more choice and will move away from food grains Urban food grain consumption per capita declines over the entire projec- tion period Because of the higher quality of fine grains, total rice and wheat consumption per capita will rise slightly before stabilizing at levels near the 1994 level (app. C). Reflecting their still positive, albeit small, in- come elasticities, both rural and urban consumers demand higher quanti ties of rice and wheat as compared to other food grains. Per capita de mand for other food grains falls monotonically over the projection eriod. Consumption per capita of all food grains is projected to be more than 5% lower in 2020 than it is for current level In contrast, per capita demand for red meat is forecast to rise harply throughout the projection period(app. D). Chinas consumers will more than double their consumption by 2020, from 19 to 43 kilo- grams per capita. Rural demand will grow more slowly than overall de- mand, but urbanization trends will shift more people into the higher consuming urban areas (in the mid-1990s an urban resident consumed about 60% more red meat than his or her rural counterpart). While arting from a lower level, per capita demand for poultry and fish rise proportionally more The projected rise in meat, poultry, fish, and other animal product demand will stimulate aggregate feed grain demand(app. E). In the base- line scenario, demand for feed grain will increase to 240 MMT by 2020 This growth rate implies that feed grain as a proportion of total grain utilization will move from 23% in 1994 to 40% in 2020. The process of moving from an agricultural economy that produces grain primarily for food to one that becomes increasingly animal feed oriented typifies rap idly developing economies In conjunction with the projected population rates, the projected per capita demands for food and feed grain imply that aggregate grain de- mand in China will reach 600 MMT(table 3), nearly 50% higher than the initial baseline demand. During this same period, rice demand will reach 147 MMT, a rate increase of only 15%, The declining importance of total grain demand is projected to fall from 31% in 1994 to approxi mately 24% in 2020. The share of wheat is expected to fall by 4%(from 27%to 24%)during the same time period Baseline projections of the supply of grain show that Chinas pro ducing sector gradually falls behind the increases in demand (table 3) Production is expected to rise somewhat faster in the second and third decades of the forecast period. Primarily as a result of the resumption of investment in agricultural research during the forecast period, aggregate grain production is expected to reach 488 MMT in 2010, an increase of 14% during the preceding 10 years. Production will reach 569 MMT by Copyright 1999 All rights reservedCopyright © 1999. All rights reserved