王情等:中国耕地食物供需平衡分析 l717 2010年9月 Analysis of Cultivated Land Food Supply-Demand-Equilibrium in China WANG Qing, YUE Tianxiang, LU Yimin, FAN Zemeng, XIN Xiaoping, ZHANG Hongbin (1 nstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beying 100081, China) Abstract: The per-unit area yield of grain, oilseed and soybean in China presented a stable increasing trend during 1949-2008, indicating that, to some extent, China's future food security situation is not serious as what was expected However, in order to understand the current food situation of China, further studies such as food supply-demand-equilibrium analysis are needed. In this work, actual nutrition production of 7 main food crops, i.e., rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, millet, soybean and oilseeds were calculated through the food-nutrition conversion formula based on county-scale yield data. Food provision at national, provincial and county levels was calculated respectively. By combining the food production with county-scale population data, we also analyzed the equilibrium between food nutrition supply-demand for counties and provinces in China. ArcGIS Spatial Analyst tools were used for data spatialization and calculations. Taking the year 2005 as an example, the 7 main cultivate-land-crops can generally provide 6. 19 MJ of calories, 45.742 x 10t of protein and 18.560 x 10 t of fat. Given a well-off living level, the estimated food nutrition can sustain 1. 766, 1.547 and 0.753 billion people. This demonstrates that food calorie and protein were sufficient or somewhat surplus, but the food fat was deficient. Taking the average value in the period of 1995-2005, among 2360 counties(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao)in China, the food calorie was surplus in 1351 counties primarily located in the major food production regions of China, such as the Northeast Plain, North China Plain, Jianghan Plain, Dongting Lake Plain, Poyang Lake Plain and Sichuan Basin. By y contrast the food calori found to be inadequate in the other 1009 counties, which needed to rely partly on other food sources such as grassland, woodland and aquatic ecosystems or food imported from other regions For protein, 896 counties could be satisfied but 1464 counties were faced with shortage. As for fat 121 counties attained sufficiency but 2239 counties were faced with shortage. Through analyses at the national, provincial and county levels, it was found that the shortage of food fat supply was significant on all the three level, which has been considered a weak link of the food security of China. It was suggested that the planting structure should be further optimized and cultivation of oil crops should be increased all over the country to ensure food security. Food supply in Northeastern and Northern China is more than adequate. In these regions, cultivated land should therefore be protected to continuously ensure the sustainable development of food supply. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, food calories are surplus but protein and fat are short of. Over these regions, the planting structure should also be optimized and more protein-rich or fat-rich crops should be planted to balance the food supply. For some provinces in the western, northern and southeastern coastal regions, supplies of all three kinds of food nutrition are deficient It is necessary for these regions to maintain or construct a smooth food transportation way, as well as give full play to local advantages to improve food supply capacity Key words: China; Cultivated land food; Food nutrition model; Food supply-demand-equilibrium http:/wowe.resci.cn2010年9月 王 情等：中国耕地食物供需平衡分析 http://www.resci.cn Analysis of Cultivated Land Food Supply-Demand-Equilibrium in China WANG Qing1 , YUE Tianxiang1 , LU Yimin1 , FAN Zemeng1 , XIN Xiaoping2 , ZHANG Hongbin2 (1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: The per-unit area yield of grain, oilseed and soybean in China presented a stable increasing trend during 1949-2008, indicating that, to some extent, China’s future food security situation is not serious as what was expected. However, in order to understand the current food situation of China, further studies such as food supply-demand-equilibrium analysis are needed. In this work, actual nutrition production of 7 main food crops, i.e., rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, millet, soybean and oilseeds were calculated through the food-nutrition conversion formula based on county-scale yield data. Food provision at national, provincial and county levels was calculated respectively. By combining the food production with county-scale population data, we also analyzed the equilibrium between food nutrition supply-demand for counties and provinces in China. ArcGIS Spatial Analyst tools were used for data spatialization and calculations. Taking the year 2005 as an example, the 7 main cultivate-land-crops can generally provide 6.19×1012 MJ of calories, 45.742 × 106 t of protein and 18.560 × 106 t of fat. Given a well-off living level, the estimated food nutrition can sustain 1.766, 1.547 and 0.753 billion people. This demonstrates that food calorie and protein were sufficient or somewhat surplus, but the food fat was deficient. Taking the average value in the period of 1995-2005, among 2360 counties (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao) in China, the food calorie was surplus in 1351 counties primarily located in the major food production regions of China, such as the Northeast Plain, North China Plain, Jianghan Plain, Dongting Lake Plain, Poyang Lake Plain and Sichuan Basin. By contrast, the food calorie was found to be inadequate in the other 1009 counties, which needed to rely partly on other food sources such as grassland, woodland and aquatic ecosystems or food imported from other regions. For protein, 896 counties could be satisfied but 1464 counties were faced with shortage. As for fat, 121 counties attained sufficiency but 2239 counties were faced with shortage. Through analyses at the national, provincial and county levels, it was found that the shortage of food fat supply was significant on all the three level, which has been considered a weak link of the food security of China. It was suggested that the planting structure should be further optimized and cultivation of oil crops should be increased all over the country to ensure food security. Food supply in Northeastern and Northern China is more than adequate. In these regions, cultivated land should therefore be protected to continuously ensure the sustainable development of food supply. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, food calories are surplus but protein and fat are short of. Over these regions, the planting structure should also be optimized and more protein-rich or fat-rich crops should be planted to balance the food supply. For some provinces in the western, northern and southeastern coastal regions, supplies of all three kinds of food nutrition are deficient. It is necessary for these regions to maintain or construct a smooth food transportation way, as well as give full play to local advantages to improve food supply capacity. Key words：China; Cultivated land food; Food nutrition model; Food supply-demand-equilibrium 1717