刘东霖等：我国能源消费需求的时变弹性分析 低。为保障我国能源安全，对内要改善能源价格的扭曲程 Economic Indicatrs Using Genetic Algorithm Approech [J].Energy 度，加强节能降耗的宜传力度，不断地开发新能源与可再 Conversion and Management.2004.45:2 525-2 537. 生能源，加大勘探的资助力度，大力开展水能、核能等项目 [8]Zamikau,J.Functional Forms in Energy Demand Modeling[J.Energy 的投资建设：对外要积极加强能源外交，拓宽能源进口渠 Economic8,2003,25(6):603-613. [9]Yetis Sazi Murat,Halim Ceylan.Use of Artificial Neural Networks for 道，利用金融工具降低能源进口风险，保持我国国民经济 Transport Energy Demand Modeling []Energy Policy.2006.34: 健康，持续、稳定发展。 3165-3172. (编辑：田红) [10]周总英，张抗，周庆凡.中国能源消费特征与发展战略分析 参考文献(References】 [J].资源产业，200l,(5):25-27.[2 ou Zhongying,g [1]Volkan S.,Edigera,Sertac,Akar.ARIMA Forecasting of Primary Enengy Kang,Zhou nm.China's Enengy Consumption Characteristics and Demand by Fuel in Turkey[J].Energy Policy,2007,35:1 701-1 708. the Development of Strategic Analysis].Renoures ad Industries [2]史丹.产业结构变动对能源消费需求的影响[】，数量经济技术 2001.(5):25-27.] 经济研究，1999，(12)：50-52.[Shi Dan.The Impect of Changes in [11小路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J刀.数 the Indusrial Sructure n Energy Consumption[].Quantitative& 量经济技术经济研究，199，(12)：53-55.[Lu Zhengnan.The Technica Economics.1999.(12):50-52.] Empirica Analysis of the Impact of Readjusment of the Industrial [3]发碧玉，姚裕春.基于可持实发展的煤炭资源投入产出分析[J刀】， Structure on China's Energy Consmption[J.Quantitative Technica 能源技术与管理，2004，(2)：78-80.[Yuan Biyu,Yao Yuchun,The Economics,.1999,(12):53-55.】 Input-output Analysis of Coal Resources Based on the Sustainable [12]史丹，张金融.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响J门.经济理论与 Development[J].Energy Tochnology and Management,2004,(2):78- 经济管理.2003，(8)：30-32.[Shi Dan,Chang Jinrong.The Impact of 80.] Change of the Industrial Structurre on China's Energy Consumption]. 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Changee,Eficiency Improvement and Electricity Demand Forecasting [7]Ceylan,H,Ourk,HK.Eatimating Energy Demand of Turkey Based on [J].Economic Research Joumal,2003,(5):57-65.] Time Varying Elasticity of Energy Consumption Demand LIU Dong-ling ZHANG Jun-rui (School of Management,Xian Jiaotong University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710049,China) Abstract Inorer to analyze the impact of the related coomic factoron China's energy demand scientifically,this article first esablished the time varying regression model based on the Bayesian theory and the interelationship among the major factors that affect the energy demand, and estimated the time varying coefficient through using the MCMC method.At the same time,by using the HP filter method,the articlego the volatility and the trend of the elasticcffcient between energy demand and the relatedfactor and then anlyzed reasons of the tendency of the elastic cofficin.Theeu howed that:In different periods,the impect inensity of energy price,industria structure, economic gain,population and energy structure on the energy demand have the time varying effect.2The changes of the electricity price plays the mot significam le toreducing energy consumpion,but the marginal ffect declines year by year.The increase of co price causes increasing energy consumpion,but the mechanism of co-eectricity price linkage and marketization of the energy price can restrain the energy demand.Urbanization can further optimize the populationcture,industrial srcture and the energy structure,and limit the accelerated growth of the energy demand. Key words energy demand;MCMC;time varying regreso;elastic coffcien ·97· 万方数据刘东霖等：我国能源消费需求的时变弹性分析 低。为保障我国能源安全，对内要改善能源价格的扭曲程 度。加强节能降耗的宣传力度，不断地开发新能源与可再 生能源，加大勘探的资助力度，大力开展水能、核能等项目 的投资建设；对外要积极加强能源外交，拓宽能源进口渠 道，利用金融工具降低能源进口风险，保持我国国民经济 健康、持续、稳定发展。 (编辑：田 红) 参考文献(Referencesl [1]Volkan S．，Edigera，Sertae，Akar．,SdtlMA Forecasting of Primary嘲 Demand by Fuel in Turkey[J]．Enefg,y Pofiey，2007，35：1 701—1 706． [2]史丹．产业结构变动对能源消费需求的影响[J]．数量经济技术 经济研究，1999，(12)：50—52．[Shi Dan．The lnlpaet of a】帅g瞄in the Industrial Structure oil E删帮C∞棚n科i∞[J]．Quantitative＆ fechniea mco∞mics，1999，(12)．50—52．] [3]袁碧玉，姚裕春．基于可持续发展的煤炭资源投入产出分析[J]． 能源技术与管理，2004，(2)：78—80．[Yuan Biyu，Yao Yuehun．The Input-output Analysis of Coal Resources Based m the Sustainable DevelopfIle．t[J]．E,,ergy l'eehnology and Man,榭nt，2004，(2)：78— 80．] [4]G％_ge H0fldlDyi锄niB．E自血埘Ill；Residential Demand for Electricity in Gm，ce[J]．Ene啊Economies，2004，26：319—334． [5]Kludifa tt G11ali，lVl 1 T E1-Sakka．嘲Use and Output Growth in Canada：A Multivariate Cointegrati∞Analysis[J]．咖Eeonofr,ies， 2004，26：225—238． [6]Ni Xiao，Jay Zarnikau，Paul D．／llniell．Testing Functional Forrm in E响田 Modeling．．An Application of the Bay∞im AolmOn to U．S．Eleeuicity OemaIldrJ]．E．ergyEcom面cs，2006，(1)：1—9． [7]CeytⅫ，tt，O-ala-k，H K．EB妇latillg E．ergy Demand ofTurkey Based Oil E(斌础Indicators Using Cl,dtletic Algorithm Appro∞h[J]．Enn'gy Conversion and M岫tagetnent。2004。45：2 525—2 537． [8]zarnibI。J．Functional Forms in Energy Demand Moaeli．gEj]．E．ergr E‘姗删面∞，20∞，25(6)：603—613． [9]yetis Sazi lIhIrat，ltalim Ceylan．Use《Artificial Neural Networks for Traml)0ft Energy Demand Modeling[J]．脚Policy，2006，34． 3 165—3 172． [10]周总瑛．张抗，周庆凡．中国能源消费特征与发展战略分析 [J]．资源产业，2001，(5)：25—27．[Zlaou砑啪一ng，Zlung l(ang，Zlaou嘶．Chilna'$Eller野"Consin叫oll Characteristics and the Development of Slllltegic Analysis[J]．R删r啷and IIldIl由i伪， 2001，(5)：25—27．] [11]路正南．产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析[J]．数 量经济技术经济研究，1999，(12)：53—55．[LⅡZhengnm．The Empirical Analysis d the Impact谴lleadjusmmt o￡the Industrial Slxucture Oll(】lilns's嘲Col!lp60ll[J]．Quantitative＆l"eehniea Ec删∞，1999．(12)：53—55．] [12]史丹，张金融．产业结构变动对能源消费的影响[J]．经济理论与 经济管理。2003，(8)：30一32．[Shi Dan，撕Jirnf0Ilg．The Ifrpct。f Ql∞薛0f the industrial Structure∞吲s咖∞181mlption[J]． FA30lllmC Theory and&迸rm Mlmatg,㈣t，2003，(8)：30—32．] [13]贺菊煌．中国经济增长与能源需求的多部门模型[J]．数量经济 技术经济研究，1997，(11)：3—5．[He Juhumlg．The bluldseetoral Model QIim’8 E130liomic㈧and嘲Oe,,ml[J]．Quantitative＆ Techniea E【HH面∞，1997，(11)：3—5．] [14]林伯强．结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——以中国电力行 业为例[J]．经济研究，2003，(5)：57—65．[Lin B0qimg．Suuetural Ch,m睁，Etficieney IIl甲mv目删and Electricity Demand Forecasting [J]．Ec(inlllnic Research Jclmasl，2003，(5)．57—65．] Time Varying Elasticity of Energy Consumption Demand HU Oong-t垤ZHANC．Jun-r,d (School of Management，Ydan Jiaotong University，Xi’锄Shaanxi 710049，China) Abstract In order to analyze the impact of the it-elated econonlic factors on China’s etlel甜demand scienti6eaUy，this article first established the time varying regression model based on the Bayesian theory and the interrelationship among the major faCtOlt'8 that affect the energy demand， and estimated the time varying coemeient through峭iTlg the McMc method．At the蛳time，by usi．g the唧fdter method，the article got the volatility and the trend of the elastic coefficient between energy demand and the l'elated economic factor8，and then mmIyzed i'eltsons of the tendency 0f the elastic eo雒cient．The resttlt s11删that：①In different periods，the irI甲日ct intensity of enel科price，industrial 8tnlctlH'e， economic鲥n，pOptllatioll and energy 81nlctlLre on the energy demand have the lime V'8．ryiIlg effect．②‰changes of the electricity price plays the most signitleant role to reducing energy COllSUml】tion．but the marginal effect declines year by year．The increase of coal price caus髓 iner馏ing energy eOlltSUlllptiolrl．but the mechanism of coal—electricity price li．k哪e and marketization of the energy price哪re蛐rsin the energy de眦IIld．③Urt)aIlization canfurther optilcllize the population structure，industrial 8lnlcture and the energy structure，and limit the accelerated 霉U’vlll of the energy demand． Key words energy demand；btCblC；time W咖regression；elastic coefficient ·97· 万方数据