1850 23.2 16.6328 0.2831 198197 0.1457 1860 31.4 20.4621 0.3483 26.5228 0.1553 1870 38.6 25.1731 0.3478 35.4528 0.0815 1880 50.2 30.9687 0.3831 43.5329 0.1328 1890 62.9 38.0986 03943 56.1884 0.1067 1900 76.0 46.8699 0.3833 70.1459 0.0770 1910 92.0 57.6607 0.3733 84.7305 0.0790 1920 106.5 70.9359 0.3339 102.4626 0.0379 1930 123.2 87.2674 0.2917 118.9509 0.0345 1940 l317 107.3588 0.1848 137.8810 0.0469 1950 150.7 132.0759 0.1236 148.7978 0.0126 1960 1793 162.4835 0.0938 170.2765 0.0503 1970 204.0 1998919 0.0201 201.1772 0.0138 1980 226.5 245.9127 0.0857 227.5748 0.0047 1990 2514 302.5288 0.2034 250.4488 0.0038 16模型应用: 现应用该模型预测人口用表1中17901990年的全部数据重新估计参 数,可得r=0.2083,xn=457.6.用公式(6)作预测得: x(2000)275;x(2010)=297.9 也可用公式(5)进行预测1850 23.2 16.6328 0.2831 19.8197 0.1457 1860 31.4 20.4621 0.3483 26.5228 0.1553 1870 38.6 25.1731 0.3478 35.4528 0.0815 1880 50.2 30.9687 0.3831 43.5329 0.1328 1890 62.9 38.0986 0.3943 56.1884 0.1067 1900 76.0 46.8699 0.3833 70.1459 0.0770 1910 92.0 57.6607 0.3733 84.7305 0.0790 1920 106.5 70.9359 0.3339 102.4626 0.0379 1930 123.2 87.2674 0.2917 118.9509 0.0345 1940 131.7 107.3588 0.1848 137.8810 0.0469 1950 150.7 132.0759 0.1236 148.7978 0.0126 1960 179.3 162.4835 0.0938 170.2765 0.0503 1970 204.0 199.8919 0.0201 201.1772 0.0138 1980 226.5 245.9127 0.0857 227.5748 0.0047 1990 251.4 302.5288 0.2034 250.4488 0.0038 [6] 模型应用： 现应用该模型预测人口.用表 1 中 1790—1990 年的全部数据重新估计参 数，可得 r =0.2083, m x =457.6. 用公式（6）作预测得： x(2000)=275; x(2010)=297.9. 也可用公式（5）进行预测