Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Mark w. Rosegrant 745 The case of wheat in China may unfold in an d patte when compared to China's Asian neighbors, although the dietary changes from migration will differ depending on what part of the country one is examining. Other countries in East and Southeast Asia always have experienced rising wheat demand with migration, since farmers in these countries produce and consume few wheat products. Migrants from southern rice-producing areas may be expected to follow this path since their current production and consumption patterns resemble those in neighboring countries. In contrast, city-bound migrants from north China consume very high levels of wheat, about 200 kilograms per cap ita in many northern provinces, levels that exceed or approach those of traditional wheat-producing, bread-eating nations, such as Pakistan, Tur- key, and Egypt. North China migrants will cut their consumption of wheat dramatically as they adopt the dietary patterns of urban dwellers Since the nations average rural consumption level exceeds that of urban areas(table 1), if the same magnitude of migration occurs in both the dampening net effect on wheat demand, in contrast to its other urbaniz- ing Asian neighbors 29 Supply Shifters: Technology, Investment, and Environmental Stress On the supply side, many sharp transitions are also under way. Above all, technological change needs to be considered explicitly, since it has been the engine of Chinas agricultural economy. 0 Chinas technological base grew rapidly during both the prereform and reform periods. A breakthrough in the engineering of hybrid rice, for example, pioneered by Chinese rice scientists in the 1970s, led to significantly increased yields in many parts of the country, and its use rapidly spread to nearly one-half of Chinas rice area by 1990. Wheat and maize enjoyed similar technological transformations. 3China's robust growth in the stock of re- search capital has been significantly responsible for these dramatic changes. Recent work has shown that the contribution of technology to crop growth equaled or exceeded that of the Household Responsibility System in the early reform period. Technological change contributed al most all crop growth by the late 1980s and early 1990s. 3 There is concern, however, that Chinas system may be suffering from neglect after more than a decade of reform. Real annual expendi tures on agricultural research fell between 1985 and 1990 before resum- th in 1990.The slowdown in growth in annual invest- ments in the late 1980s will result in slower growth in the overall stock of research in the 1990s and may affect production. Historic patterns of research expenditures as well as China's invest ment plans affect how the supply of rice, wheat, and maize will respond to future research expenditures. Agricultural planners have traditionally invested most heavily in rice, wheat, and maize research.36 Technological Copyright 1999 All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved