专家论坛 Expert forum 国际安全新形势下的中国石油 安全战略调整 郎一环,王礼茂 (中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101) 摘要:我国处于工业化加速发展时期,目前石油消费量和原油产量分别占世界的8.92%和 4.70%,而石油剩余探明可采储量仅占世界的1.44%。与高速发展的中国经济相比,国内资源 不足。为适应非传统安全和传统安全交互作用下国际安全新形势和石油地缘政治新格局,中国 迫切需要调整石油安全战略,即从利用国内资源为主向利用国外资源为主转变;从应对传统安全 为主向应对非传统安全为主转变;从单纯预防石油供应中断,向既防止供应中断,又预防石油价 格大幅度波动转变;从能源髙耗型经济发展模式向节能节油型经济发展模式转变;从单纯的国际 间竞争、甚至对抗解决争端向互利合作双赢转变。 未来中国石油安全战略的构建主要包括以下8个方面:(1)保护性利用国内石油资源;(2) 多元化利用国外石油资源;(3)多途径保障运输安全;(4)以科技创新支撑石油节约与替代;(5 建立以国家为主导的石油战略储备;(6)建立石油期货市场,参与全球油价博弈;(7)积极开展 石油外交与国际合作,为我国获得长期、安全、稳定的资源,创造良好的国际环境;(8)建立中 国石油安全预警系统,制定中国石油危机应急预案,以保障石油安全战略的顺利实施 关键词:石油安全;战略调整;战略构想 中图分类号:F40722文献标识码:A文章编号:1003-2355(200801-0008-05 Abstract: China is now in the period of fast industrialization. At present, petroleum consumption and production account for 8.92% and 4.70% of total respectively. However, the oil reservation in China only accounts for 1. 44% of the world. Therefore, it can not meet the demand of economic and social development if we only depend on domestic resources. China needs to adjust petroleum security strategies urgently in order te dapt the new world security situation and petroleum political pattern under the background of interactions of traditional and non-traditional securities. We should change our strategies from mainly use of domestic oil te fully use of overseas resources; from dealing with traditional security to non-traditional security; from only preventing suspend of oil supply to both of suspend of oil supply and the risk of oil price fluctuation; from the economic developing model of energy intensive consumption to the model of energy saving; from the interna tional competition to the cooperation and win-win The future oil security of China should include the followings: ( I)Making use of domestic oil protectively (2 )Diversify ing overseas oil supply; (3)Guaranteeing transportation security by increasing transportation channels (4)Supporting oil saving and substitution in a way of science and technology innovation; (5 )Establishing the national strategy petroleum reserves;(6)Establishing the oil futures market and participating the game of global oil price; (7)Strengthening oil-oriented diplomacy and creating a favorable environment for China to 收稿日期:2007-12-12 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助研究项目(70473103) 作者简介:郎一环,研究员,博士生导师,研究方向为能源和环境经济。 中国能源 第30卷第1期2008年1月 Vol. 30 No. 1 Jan. 2008 91994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreservedhttp://www.cnki.net第 30 卷 第 1 期 2008 年 1 月 Vol. 30 No. 1 Jan. 2008 8 中国能源 国际安全新形势下的中国石油 安全战略调整 郎一环，王礼茂 （中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101） 摘 要 : 我国处于工业化加速发展时期，目前石油消费量和原油产量分别占世界的 8.92% 和 4.70%，而石油剩余探明可采储量仅占世界的 1.44% 。与高速发展的中国经济相比，国内资源 不足。为适应非传统安全和传统安全交互作用下国际安全新形势和石油地缘政治新格局，中国 迫切需要调整石油安全战略，即从利用国内资源为主向利用国外资源为主转变; 从应对传统安全 为主向应对非传统安全为主转变; 从单纯预防石油供应中断，向既防止供应中断，又预防石油价 格大幅度波动转变；从能源高耗型经济发展模式向节能节油型经济发展模式转变; 从单纯的国际 间竞争、甚至对抗解决争端向互利合作双赢转变。 未来中国石油安全战略的构建主要包括以下 8 个方面:（1 ）保护性利用国内石油资源;（2 ） 多元化利用国外石油资源;（3）多途径保障运输安全;（4）以科技创新支撑石油节约与替代;（5） 建立以国家为主导的石油战略储备;（6 ）建立石油期货市场，参与全球油价博弈;（7 ）积极开展 石油外交与国际合作，为我国获得长期、安全、稳定的资源，创造良好的国际环境;（8 ）建立中 国石油安全预警系统，制定中国石油危机应急预案，以保障石油安全战略的顺利实施。 关键词 : 石油安全; 战略调整; 战略构想 中图分类号: F407.22 文献标识码: A 文章编号 : 1003-2355(2008)01-0008-05 Abstract: China is now in the period of fast industrialization. At present, petroleum consumption and production account for 8.92% and 4.70% of total respectively. However, the oil reservation in China only accounts for 1.44% of the world. Therefore, it can not meet the demand of economic and social development if we only depend on domestic resources. China needs to adjust petroleum security strategies urgently in order to adapt the new world security situation and petroleum political pattern under the background of interactions of traditional and non-traditional securities. We should change our strategies from mainly use of domestic oil to fully use of overseas resources; from dealing with traditional security to non-traditional security; from only preventing suspend of oil supply to both of suspend of oil supply and the risk of oil price fluctuation; from the economic developing model of energy intensive consumption to the model of energy saving; from the interna￾tional competition to the cooperation and win-win. The future oil security of China should include the followings: (1)Making use of domestic oil protectively; (2)Diversifying overseas oilsupply; (3)Guaranteeing transportation security by increasing transportation channels; (4)Supporting oil saving and substitution in a way of science and technology innovation; (5)Establishing the national strategy petroleum reserves; (6)Establishing the oil futures market and participating the game of global oil price; (7) Strengthening oil-oriented diplomacy and creating a favorable environment for China to 收稿日期 : 2007-12-12 基金项目 : 国家自然科学基金资助研究项目（70473103） 作者简介 : 郎一环，研究员，博士生导师，研究方向为能源和环境经济。 专家论坛 Expert Forum