1 Towards a General Theory of the Balance of Payments H.G.Johnson 本文引自《International Trade and Economic Growth》一书，原发表于l958 年，系作者取材于其在英国剑桥大学等高校讲课稿，其中部分内容引自早期的 一篇论文“凯思斯有关国际收支理论的一般概括”，发表于《Indian Journal of Economics》,第37卷，1956年。 作者简介：Harry Gordon Johnson是美国著名的国际经济学家，曾任美国芝 加哥大学和英国伦敢经济和政治学院教授，发表多部国际金融方面的著作，是 当代货币分析法的代表人物之一。1977年病故。 论文提要：本文主要介绍调节国际收支的主要理论和调节政策。作者指出 国际收支的分析是依据一国的总收支而非国际账户上的收支，从而揭示国际收 支逆差的货币性质，也必然伴随着本国货币的流出或信用扩张，使国际收支逆 差与一国的整体经济活动联系起来。作者还提出逆差反映社会上的存量意愿 和流量意愿，前者宜采用直接管制政策，后者可采用支出减少或支出转移政策。 在充分就业情况下，后者必须受前者的支持。这是一篇研究国际收支调节理论 和调节政策的必读之作。 The theryofthe baceof paymet ishthedeteminant of the balance of payments,and specifically with the analysis of policies for preserving paymentsequilibrium.So defined,the theory of the balance of payments is essentiallya post- war development.Prior to the Keynesian Revolution,problems of interational disequilibrium were discussed within the of"the mechanism" the way in which the balance of payments adjusts to equilibrium under altemative systems of the actions of the monetary and other policy-making authorities being subsumed in the system under oieratin.While the Keynesian Revolution introduced the notion of chronic disequilibrium into the analysis of intemational adjustment, early Keynesian writing on the subject tended to remain within the classical framework of analysis in termsof interational monetary systems-the gold standard,the inonvertible pape standard-and to be concemed with the role and adequacy in the adjustment process of automatic variations in employment through the foreign trade multiplier. 3