第一部分： 西方国际金融学专题论文
1 Towards a General Theory of the Balance of Payments H.G.Johnson 本文引自《International Trade and Economic Growth》一书，原发表于l958 年，系作者取材于其在英国剑桥大学等高校讲课稿，其中部分内容引自早期的 一篇论文“凯思斯有关国际收支理论的一般概括”，发表于《Indian Journal of Economics》,第37卷，1956年。 作者简介：Harry Gordon Johnson是美国著名的国际经济学家，曾任美国芝 加哥大学和英国伦敢经济和政治学院教授，发表多部国际金融方面的著作，是 当代货币分析法的代表人物之一。1977年病故。 论文提要：本文主要介绍调节国际收支的主要理论和调节政策。作者指出 国际收支的分析是依据一国的总收支而非国际账户上的收支，从而揭示国际收 支逆差的货币性质，也必然伴随着本国货币的流出或信用扩张，使国际收支逆 差与一国的整体经济活动联系起来。作者还提出逆差反映社会上的存量意愿 和流量意愿，前者宜采用直接管制政策，后者可采用支出减少或支出转移政策。 在充分就业情况下，后者必须受前者的支持。这是一篇研究国际收支调节理论 和调节政策的必读之作。 The theryofthe baceof paymet ishthedeteminant of the balance of payments,and specifically with the analysis of policies for preserving paymentsequilibrium.So defined,the theory of the balance of payments is essentiallya post- war development.Prior to the Keynesian Revolution,problems of interational disequilibrium were discussed within the of"the mechanism" the way in which the balance of payments adjusts to equilibrium under altemative systems of the actions of the monetary and other policy-making authorities being subsumed in the system under oieratin.While the Keynesian Revolution introduced the notion of chronic disequilibrium into the analysis of intemational adjustment, early Keynesian writing on the subject tended to remain within the classical framework of analysis in termsof interational monetary systems-the gold standard,the inonvertible pape standard-and to be concemed with the role and adequacy in the adjustment process of automatic variations in employment through the foreign trade multiplier. 3
Moreover,the applicability of the analysis to policy problems was severely restricted by its assumption of general under-employment,which implied an elastic supply of aggregate output, and allowed the domestic-currency wage or price level to be treated as giwen.independently of the balance of The pre-war approach to interational monetary theory reflected the way in which balance of payments problems tended to appear at the time,namely as problems of international etary adjustment. Since the war,for ron which need not b eaborated here,the balance of payments has come to be a major problem for conomic policy in many countries. Correpondingly,a new (though still Keyesian)heoretica approhto balance-of-payments "foreign trade multiplier theory"and"elasticity analysis"of the pre-war period in two major espects:it poses the problems of balance-of-payments adjustment in a way which highlights The cssence of this approach,which has been termed "the absorption approach",is to the economy,rather than as a relarion between the oury's credits and debitsoninteration account.This approach has been implicit to an important extent in the thinking of practical with balance-of-paymentsprobe ost-war onditions.Its min formal development is to be found in the works of Meade (1951),Tinbergen (1952),an Alexander (1952),though many others have contributed (Stuvel,1951;Harberger,1950; generalize the work of these writers,and to use their approach to clarify certain aspects of the balance-of-payments policy problem. Let us first summarize the traditional approach to balance-of-peyments theory.The balance of payments must necessarily balance,when all interational transactions are taken into account:for imbalance or disequilibrium to be possible,it is necessary to distinguish between se whichare the the free and onary choices of individual transactors.within whatever restrictions are imposed by economic variables or policy on their behaviour-and "induced"or"accommodating"international which are undertaken by the oreign the free choices of the individual transactors-and to define the "balance of payments"to include only autonomous transactions.To put the'point another way,balance-of-payments problems presenceof n official foreign exchange authority which is prepared tooperate i the foreign exchange market by the use of official reserves so as to influence the exchange rate; "is defined by changes in the official reserves,assciated with imbalance ms of Alexander's Machlup nent of this pnper attempts a reoonciliation of the two appmaches in a broeder framework of analysis
between the foreign receipts and foreign payments of residents of the country,where"resident" is defined to include all units domiciled in the the foreign exchang The"balance of payments"appropriate to economic analysis may then be defined as: B=Rr-P (1) where Ry represents aggregate receipts by residents from foreigners.and P represents aggregate payments by residents to foreigners.The difference between the two constitutes a surplus(if positive)or a deficit (if negative);a surplus is accmpanied by sales of foreign currency to the exchange authority by residents or foreigners in exchange for domestic currency.and conversely a deficit is financed by sales of domestic currency by residents or foreigners to the authority in exchange for foreign curency.To remedy a must be taken to increase reipts from foreigners and reduce payments to foreigners,or increase receipts more than payments,or reduce payments more than receipts;and conversely with a surplus (though the rectification ofa suplus is not generally regarded as a"balance-of payments problem") The"balance of payments"can,however,be defined in another way,by making use of the fact that all payments by residents reeipts by residents;in symbolsR=P Hence the balance of payments may be written B=R+R,-Pr-P,=R-P. (2) That is the balance of payments is the differene between agregate reeipts by residents and aggregate payments by residents.A deficit implies an excess of paymentsover receipts,and its rectification requires that receipts be increased and payments decreased,or that receipts increase more than payments.or that receipts decrease less than payments;and conversely with a surplus.In what follows,however,surpluses will be ignored,and the argument will be concerned only with deficits. The balance-of-payments deficit in tems of an excess of aggregate payments by by residents nstitutes poin for the generalization of the "absorption approach"to balance-of-payments theory-what might be two important aspects of a deficit-its monetary implications,and its relation with the aggregate activity of the economy-from which attention tends to be diverted by the traditional which le to fallacious anysis.These wo be discusdum beginning with the moneary impicationofa deficit. The excess of payments by residents over receipts by residents inherent in a balance-of. it is nee 5
payments deficit neesrily implics one or other of two altematives.The first is that cash balances of residents are runing down,domestic money is transferred to the foreign exchange authority.This can,obviously,only continue for a limited period,as eventually cash approch the minimum that wished tohold and in the process the disequilibrium would cure itself,through the mechanism of rising interest rates, tighter credit conditions,reduction of aggregate expenditure,and possibly an increase in correcting in time:but the economic policy authorities may well be unable to allow the self ,since the intemational ervesof the be such small fraction of the domestic money supply that they would be xhausted well before th running down of money balances had any significant corrective effect.The authorities might therefore have to take action of some kind to reinforce and accelerate the effects of diminishing money balances This last consideration provides the chief valid argument for larger interational reserves. The case for larger is usually arguedon the ground that larger reserve provide more time for the economic policy authorities to make adjustments to correct a balance of-payments disequilibrium.But.as Friedman has argued in criticism of Meade (1953).there is presumption spread overalonger period preferred-theargumen could indeed be inverted into the proposition that,the larger reserves,the more power the authorities have to resist desirable adjustments.The acceptable argument would be that,the larger the interation relation to the domestic money supply,the less the probability that the profit-or utility-maximizing decisions of individuals to move out of cash into securities will have to be frustrated by the moneary authorities for fear of a balanceof-payments crisis. The second alternative is that the cash balances of residents are being replenished by open market purchasesf by the monetary of foreign exchange authority,aswould happen automatically if the monetary authority followed a policy of pegging interest rates or the exchange authority (as in the British case)automatically re-lent to residents any domestic eurrency it re-ceivedont foreigners exchange.In this case,the money supply in domestic circulation is being maintained by credit creation,so that by without generating any corrective process-until dwindling reserves forced the economic policy authorities to change their policy in some respect. To summarize the argumentso far.abalance-of-payments deficit implies ithe dishoarding by residentsrcredit creation by the monetary authorities-cither an inc in V,or the maintenance of M.Further,since a deficit with increasing velocityof utbority are one and the saume institution.domestic monetary liabilities mey 6
alne),a continuing balance-of-payments deficit of the type usually discussed in balance-of- payments theory ultimately requires credit creation to keep it going.This in tum implies that either of two causes:too low a ratio of international reserves relative to the domestic money supply,so that the mic policy relyon the natural by credit creation.In both cases,the problem is associated fundamentally with the power of tin banking systemstocreate money which acceptable backing Toconclude that balance-of-payments problems are ssentially moneary is notofoure to assert that they are attributable to monetary mismanagement-they may be,or they may be "eal"forces in the face of which the playa.The conclusion does mean,however,that the distinctions which have sometimes been drawn between monetary and real disequilibria,for example by conepts not logically valid-though such,carefully used,may be helpful in isolating the initiating causes of disequilibriumor the most appropriate type of remedial policy to follow. Formulation of the balance of payments as the difference between aggregate payments and aggregate receipts thus illuminates the monetary aspects of balance-of-paym nts disequilibrium, which this approach sheds on the policy problem of oorrecting a deficit,by relating the balance of payments to the overall operation of the economy rather than treating it as one sector of the eomy to be analysed by itsel An excess of aggregate payments by residents over aggregate receipts by residents is the taker by the community of residents considered as a group (excluding,as always,the foreign exchange authority)though itmust be gied that this technique ignores many of the complications that would have to be investigated in a more detailed analysis. Two sorts of aggregate decision leading to a balance-of-payments deficit mav be "stock"decisions and "flow"decisions:a (stock)decision to alter the composition of the community's assets by substituting other assets for domestic money,and a(flow)decision to spend currently in excs of current receipts.Since both real goods and securitiesar assets to domestic money,and current expenditure may consist in the purchase of either goods ,the balane-of-payment type decision ①With the cor nity defined to include ther teefietdwawinsse
may show itselfon either currentor capitalacount.That is,a current acount deficit may reflect either a community decision to shift out of cash balances into stocks of goods,oa decision to use goods in excess of the community's current rate of production,while a capital account deficit may reflect either a decision to shift out of domestic money into securities or a decision to lend in excess of the current rate of saving. The distinction between"stock"and"flow"balance-of-payments deficits is important for both theory and practical policy,though refincd theoretical analysis has generally been concered,without making the distinction explicit.The importance of the distinction stems from the fact that a"stock"deficit is inherently temporary and implies no real woreningof the country'smi psition,whereasa"flowdeficit is not inherenty temporary and may imply a worsening of the country's economic position. Since a stock decision entails a once-for-all change in the composition of a given aggregate capital assets,a"must necessarily be a temporary in itsfit implies no deterioration (but rather the reverse)in the country's economic position and methods available are familiar.but it may be useful to review them briefly in relation to the framework of analysis developed here Todiscourage the of stcks of goods for domestie them policy authorities may either raise the cost of stock-holding by credit restrictions or reduce its by depreciation.Under both policies,the magnitude of the effectis uncertain-depreciation,by stimulating destabilizing expectations,may even promot stock accumulation-while unavoidable repercussions on the fow equilibrium of the economy are se up.These considerations argument for the usof tbe methodof direct oontrols on stock-holding,an indirect and partial form of which is quantitative import restriction. Todisoourage the substitution of securities for domestic curency,the same bro alternatives are available:credit restriction,which amounts to the monetary authority substituting domestic currency for securities substitution of securities for domestic currency by the rest of the commnity:devaluation,which affects the that the fscto the char the na must be de ce of pev This ed mo in o n with imp 8
sccurities only through expectations and may work either way;and exchange controls restricting the acquisition of securities from abroad.Considerations similar to those of the previous paragraph would sem to argue in favour of the use capita In both cases,evaluation of the policy alternatives suggests the use of control rather than price system methods.It should be recalled,though,that the problem is created by the assumed inadequacy of the country's international reserves.In the longer run,the choice for eomic policy lies.not between the three alteratives discused,but between the necessityof having between them and the in the accumulation of large enough to finance potential "stock"deficits.Also,nothing has been said about the practical difficulties of maintaining effectiveonover interationa trasctopcially capital movements. 【n contrast to a“stock"deficit,a“flow”deficit is not inherently of limited duration.lt will be if the monetary authority is not prepared but this is because its existence will then set up monetary repercussions which will eventually alter the collective decision responsible for it,not because the initial decision implied a temporary deficit.If the interest rates,it follows that the terination of a"ow"deficit requires a deliberate change of econmic policy.Further,a"flow"deficit may imply a worsening of the ountry's capital position,providing an eonomic as well as a monetary incentive to terminate the diqim.② Inanalysing the policy problems posed by "flow"deficits,it is convenient to begin by abstracting altogetherfrom inteational capital movements (other than reserve transactions between foreign exchange authorities)and considering thecasofaceoun deficit.In this case.if intermediate transactions are excuded,the balance of payments becomes the difference between the value of the country's output (its national income)and its total expenditure.ie. B=Y-E. To facilitate analysis by avoiding certain complications associated with the possibility of changes in the omestic price and being vaed domestic output.A deficit then consists in an excess of real expenditure over real income.and the problem a deficit is to bring real nationl income (output)and real nationa This a which is slightly ino gadrfiamriotohe s the tion may be f urable:if it addition increase productive capacity 9
This formulation suggests that policies for correcting current-account deficits can be classified broadly into two types:those which aim at (or rely on)increasing output,and those of the policy,since income and expenditure are interdependent:expenditure depends on and varies with income,and income depends on and varies with expenditure (because part of expenditure isdevoted tohome-produced any change in me or expenditure will initiate multiplier changes in both.It can,however,readily be shown that,so long as an increase in income induces a smaller change in aggregate expenditure,the multiplier repercussions will not be large the impact effect ofachange .so that an impect increase in output or decrease in expenditure will always improve the balance on current The distinction b eenouput-ncreasing and plic may usfuly be put in another way.Since output is governed by the demand for it,a change in output can only be brought about by a change in the demand for it;a policy of incrensing domestic output expenditure(either foreign or domestic)on that ouput Given the level of expenditure,this in tur involves effecting a switch of expenditure (by residents and foreigners)from foreign output to domestic output.The distinction between output-increasing and expenditure-decreasing policies,which rests on the policis may therefore be replaced by a distinction between expenditure-switching policies and expenditure-reducing policies,which rests on themethd by which the effectsare achieved. Apolicy of expenditure-reduction may be applied througha variety of means -mone restriction,budgetary policy.or even a sufficiently comprehensive battery of direct controls Since any such policy will tend to reduce income and employment,it will have an additional attr ction if the well sa balance-of-payments deficit,but a corresponding disadvantage if the oountry is suffering from unemployment. Moreover,since the impact reduction in expenditure and the total reduction in inme and a given deficit are larger the larger the proportion of the expenditure reduction falling on home-produced goods,and since different methods of expenditure-reduction ng the c o in the text, dy- (wherethereductidomestic ut).gives the result: -)dE. e+en ludes indu t液m d unity ol the text.) diture reduction will lo
may differ in this respect,the choice between alterative methods may depend on the income may lead to some reduction in the domestic price level,and/or a greater eagerness of domestic producers to compete with foreign producers both at home and abroad,expenditure- reducingpolicies mayhave incidental effects Expenditure-switching policies may be divided into two types.according to whether the policy instrument employed is general or selctive:devaluntion (which may be taken the case of a deflation-induced reduction of the domestic price level under fixed exchange rates),and trade controls (including both tariffs and subsidies and quantitative restrictions) contros are usually imposed on imports,and aim at (or have the effect of)switching domestic expenditure away from imports towards home goods,though sometimes they are used to Both types of expenditure-switching policy may have direct impuct-effects on residents expenditure.Devaluation may result in increased expenditurefrom the initial inme level, through thecedf-rade effect"ofvete-rade m ment in reducing real income and therefore the proportion of income saved.Trade controls will tend to have the same effect,via the reduction in real incme freedom of choice. In addition.trade conros must alter the real expenditure corresponding to the initial output level if they take the fomm of import duties or export subsidies uncomp nsated by other fiscal changes this eshould,however,be cse dasa combined policy of expenditure-chang (unfavourable in the case of the export subsidy)and expenditure-switch Whether nature,an expenditure-switching policy seks deficit by switching towards dom tic goods;and it depends for success not only on switching demand in the right direction,but also on the capacity of the make available the additional demand.Such policies therefore pose two problems for economic analysis:the conditions required for expenditure to be switched in the desired direction,and the source of the additional output meet the additional demand. As to the first question,the possibilities of failure for both devaluation and controls have t ith hee polcy ex d to ied Jor a shor wil b ooks th ing the r tive in u n白a to the final sent of the aph.is that if the of the tt) ne is