2 The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory H.G.Johnson 本文是货币分析法的代表人物之一、Harry G.Johnson的一篇作品，曾受学 术界的重视，是研究货币分析法的必读之作。本文选自M.B.Connolly与A. K.Swoboda合编：《International Trade and Money》(1973年版)。 作者简介：见第一部分第一篇论文后附的作者简介。 论文提要：本文撰写的目的是阔述国际收支调节理论中的一种新分析方法 (包括贬值和升值)。首先回顾国际收支理论的发展，从休姆的价格、现金、流动 机制到罗宾逊夫人的弹性分析法，再发展到亚历山大的吸收分析法。然后再阐 迷M.A.Mundell的财政货币政策搭配论；其次，论述凯恩斯主义和货币主义模 式的区别：再次，提出货币主义模式；最后探讨国际收支调节的货币模式对货币 贬值的影响。 My purpose in this essay is to p the balance of payments and of balan-of-payments adjustment (including devaluation and revaluation)that has been emerging in recent years from several sources.Concretely,this new approachistobe found,on theone hand,in the change in plicy orientation adopted by the British Goverment under pressure from the Intemational Monetary Fund after the failure of the devaluation of 1967 to produce the expected improvement in the British balance of ayments,the theoretical basis for this new orientation being traceable to the work of the Dutch economist,.J.Koopmans.On the other hand this new approach finds its origins in the theoretical work of my colleagues at the University of Chicago-R.A.Mundell and his working along similar lines.Its essence is to put at the forefront of analysis the monetary rather than the relative price aspects of interational adjustment To put the new appro in perspective,it is helpful togo back to the origins of balance of-payments theory in the work of David Hume,and specifically his contribution of the analysis of the price-specie-flow mechanism.Hume was concerned to refute the concentration of the the objective precious metals within the and thei consequent recommendation of policies designed to bring about a surplus on the balance of payments.His analysis,couched in terms relevant to the emerging new approach to balance-of- 16