Studving? RESEARCH TOOLS Economist.comsuRveYs Leadership and luck Sep 18th 2003 From The Economist print edition The world economy needs both TO GET a sense of the challenges facing the global economy fast-forward four years to September 2007 and consider the following three scenarios: The world's top finance ministers arrive in Washington for an emergency summit after the dollar has crashed and financial markets have seized up. Foreigners are deserting American assets following the announcement of a $50 billion derivatives loss at Fannie Mae, Americas mortgage giant Bond yields have soared three percentage points in two weeks; the dollar is down 40%over the same period. Several large banks are rumoured to be on the brink of with America' s trade deficit topping $800 billion and the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP Congress is in a protectionist frenzy. a bill sponsored by Hillary Clinton, the leading Democrat contender for the presidency in 2008, to impose a 25%o surcharge on imports from all countries with large trade surpluses looks set to pass. More radical legislation calling for America to leave the wto ng suppor bestseller list is a new book by Lester Thurow called"A Haemorrhaging Hegemon: Hol ssris .After six years of poor growth, America's economy has been widely written off. The dolla weak, and the administration is preoccupied with painful budget cuts. Top of the busineLeadership and luck Sep 18th 2003 From The Economist print edition The world economy needs both TO GET a sense of the challenges facing the global economy, fast-forward four years to September 2007 and consider the following three scenarios: •The world's top finance ministers arrive in Washington for an emergency summit after the dollar has crashed and financial markets have seized up. Foreigners are deserting American assets following the announcement of a $50 billion derivatives loss at Fannie Mae, America's mortgage giant. Bond yields have soared three percentage points in two weeks; the dollar is down 40% over the same period. Several large banks are rumoured to be on the brink of collapse. •With America's trade deficit topping $800 billion and the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP, Congress is in a protectionist frenzy. A bill sponsored by Hillary Clinton, the leading Democrat contender for the presidency in 2008, to impose a 25% surcharge on imports from all countries with large trade surpluses looks set to pass. More radical legislation calling for America to leave the WTO is gaining support. •After six years of poor growth, America's economy has been widely written off. The dollar is weak, and the administration is preoccupied with painful budget cuts. Top of the business bestseller list is a new book by Lester Thurow called “A Haemorrhaging Hegemon: How