764 Economic Development and Cultural change on-Led Reform, Working paper (Stanford University, Department of Eco- nomics, Stanford, Calif, 1996) 35. State Science and Technology Commission, Zhongguo Kexue Jishu Ziliao Ku, 1985-90, 93(China science and technology statistical yearbook, 1985-90;93),2vols.(B State Science and Technology Commission, 1991,1993) 36. S. Fan and P. Pardey, Agricultural Research in China: Its Insti Development and impact(The Hague: International Service for Natie ricultural Research, 1992) 37. J. Nickum, "" Dam Lies and Other Statistics: Taking the Measure of Irri- gation in China, 1931-1991, East-West Center Occasional Papers, Environ ment Series no. 18(East-West Center, Honolulu, 1995 38. Ministry of Water Resources and Electrical Power, Compiled Statistics on the Development of China's Water Conservancy System(Beijing: Ministry of Water Conservancy, 1988-92). 39.H Ros 40. M. Rosegrant, M. Agcaoili, and N. Perez, Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment, '2020 Vision Discussion Paper no 5 (Inter- national Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C, 1995) 1. technology was measured in stock form and was built by aggregatin past government expenditures on research according to a weighting criteria su gested by P. Pardey, R. Lindner, E. Abdurachman, S. Wood, S. Fan, W. Eve- leens, B. Zhang, and J. Alston, The Economic Returns to Indonesian Rice and Soybean Research rt (Agency for Agricultural Research and Development and the International ice for National Agricultural Research, the Nether expenditures on irrigation, subject to a depreciation rate of 4% per year, a rate used by M. Rosegrant and f. Kasryno,"" Dynamic Supply Response for Indone- ian Food Crops, Working paper(International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, D. C, 1994). The environmental variables have been describe analyzed in J. Huang and S Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and grain in ch American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77, no 4(N 1995):246-56 42. The general supply-side parameters were first estimated in Huang, Ro- grant, and rozelle. more recent commodity specific estimates for wheat are in Rozelle and Huang (n 32 above) and for maize are in Huang and Rozelle, "Technology and Grain Supply in China(n 32 above) 43. H. Bouis, Prospects for Rice Supply/Demand Balances in Asia Working paper(International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. d David, "Demand for Cereal grain above). The parameters relating demand behavior to rises in income use exper diture data instead of income because of the difficulty in comparing urban and rural income since the former includes large subsidies for housing, health care etc. The analysis does not consider the effect of urban housing, education, and health reforms, which would have two effects on food consumption. If urban residents paid market rates for all goods and services, the income effect would reduce consumption of all goods, including food. The cro oss-price effects, how- ever, would offset part of this drop 44. A Deaton and J Muellbauer, "An Almost Ideal Demand Sys American Economic Review 70(1980): 321-26. 45. Huang and Rozelle, Income, Quality, and the Demand for Food In Rural China(n. 24 above), and"Urban Life, Urban Consumption(n. 24 above); and Huang and Bouis 46. See F. Fuller and J. Rude, An Approach to Policy Analysis and Pro- Copy right 9 1999. All rights reserved.Copyright © 1999. All rights reserved