352 WORLD POLITICS erate to increase the temptation to protect domestic industries from import competition. Economic difficulties were similar in the two periods,which were marked by relatively high unemployment rates and sizable agricultural and industrial overcapacity.In the I9zos and early 193os,the U.S.econ- omy suffered two major downturns-one in 1920-1923 and one in 1929- 1933.Price deflation,labor unrest,and international monetary problems created further economic instability.7 In the 197os,the U.S.economy ex- perienced deep recessions during 1973-1975 and 1978-1982.Sparked by the oil shocks,these recessions were aggravated by rapidly shifting trade patterns,price instability,and a confused international monetary situa- tion.These high levels of economic distress and instability that were felt in the 1g2os and 197os might be expected to generate similar widespread protection. Indeed,in view of the absolute levels of economic distress during the two periods,the 197os might have generated even greater levels of mar- ket closure than the Igzos.s The averages for three major economic in- dicators all are worse in the 197os than in the Igzos,as Table I indicates. TABLE I AVERAGES FOR THREE MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS (percent) 1923-1929 1973-1979 Average annual growth in real GNP 3.1 2.3 Average mean value of unemployment rate 3.5 6.8 Average value of non-residential fixed investment to GNP 11.2 10.2 All data from Feldstein (fn.7),104-5. Wendy Takacs,"Pressures for Protectionism:An Empirical Analysis,"Economic Ingteiry 19(October 1981),687-93,at 687.In general,see Timothy McKeown,"Firms and Tariff Re- gime Change:Explaining the Demand for Protectionism,"World Politics 36 (January 1984), 215-33;Giulio Gallarotti,"Toward a Business Cycle Model of Tariffs,"International Organi- zation 39(Winter 1985),155-87;Susan Strange and Roger Tooze,eds.,The International Pol- itics of Surplus Capacity (London:Butterworths,1980). 7 W.Arthur Lewis,Economic Survey,1919-1939 (London:Allen Unwin,1949);U.S.De- partment of Commerce,Survey of Current Business,various issues,1919-1930 (Washington, DC:G.P.O.);U.S.Census Bureau,Historical Statistics of the U.S.,Colonial Times to the Present (Washington,DC:G.P.O.,1975);Kindleberger (fn.5),esp.chaps.5-8;League of Nations, Economic Fluctuations in the U.S.and U.K.,1918-1942 (Geneva:League of Nations,1942); Martin Feldstein,ed.,The American Economy in Transition(Chicago:National Bureau of Eco- nomic Research,1980),12. s Sidney Ratner,James Soltow,and Richard Sylla,The Evolution of the American Economy352 WORLD POLITICS erate to increase the temptation to protect domestic industries from import c~mpetition.~ Economic difficulties were similar in the two periods, which were marked by relatively high unemployment rates and sizable agricultural and industrial overcapacity. In the 1920s and early I~~OS, the U.S. econ￾omy suffered two major downturns--one in 1920-1923 and one in 1929- 1933. Price deflation, labor unrest, and international monetary problems created further economic instability.? In the I97OS, the U.S. economy ex￾perienced deep recessions during 1973-1975 and 1978-1982. Sparked by the oil shocks, these recessions were aggravated by rapidly shifting trade patterns, price instability, and a confused international monetary situa￾tion. These high levels of economic distress and instability that were felt in the 1920s and 1970s might be expected to generate similar widespread protection. Indeed, in view of the absolute levels of economic distress during the two periods, the 1970s might have generated even greater levels of mar￾ket closure than the 1920s.~ The averages for three major economic in￾dicators all are worse in the 1970s than in the 192os, as Table I indicates. TABLEI AVERAGES FOR THREE MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS (percent) 1923-1 929 1973-1979 Average annual growth in real GNP Average mean value of unemployment rate Average value of non-residential fixed investment to GNP All data from Feldstein (fn.7), 104-5. Wendy Takacs, "Pressures for Protectionism: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry 19 (October 1981), 687-93, at 687. In general, see Timothy McKeown, "Firms and Tariff Re￾gime Change: Explaining the Demand for Protectionism," World Politics 36 (January 1984), 215-33; Giulio Gallarotti, "Toward a Business Cycle Model of Tariffs," International Organi￾zation 39 (Winter 1985), 155-87; Susan Strange and Roger Tooze, eds., The International Pol￾itics of Surplus Capacity (London: Butterworths, 1980). 7 W. Arthur Lewis, Economic Survey, 1919-1939 (London: Allen & Unwin, 1949); U.S. De￾partment of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, various issues, 1919-1930 (Washington, DC: G.P.O.); U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the U.S., Colonial Times to the Present (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1975); Kindleberger (fn. 5), esp. chaps. 5-8; League of Nations, Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and U.K., 1918-1942 (Geneva: League of Nations, 1942); Martin.Feldstein, ed., The American Economy in Transition (Chicago: National Bureau of Eco￾nomic Research, 1980), 12. Sidney Ratner, James Soltow, and Richard Sylla, The Evolution of the American Economy