2000 THE CHINESE FAMINE OF 1959-61 143 (1990) proposed a game theory explanation that the main cause of the agricultural collapse was the deprivation of the peasants right to withdraw from the collectives. This switch in the form of organisation changed the incentive structure for the peasants and consequently undermined agricultural productivity. In this paper, we do not investigate the determinants of the sudden drop in output; instead, we focus on the consequences of the supply shock. More specifically, we analyse the relative importance of food availability and legal entitlement to food in causing the subsequent famine Statistical figures in Table I reveal that there were sharp reductions in grain availability for the period 1959-61. Prior to the collapse, the total grai output continued to increase, reaching a record high in 1958 with 200 million tons. In 1959, total supply suddenly dropped by 15% and, in the following two years(1960 and 1961), it was even worse, reaching only about 70% of the 1958 level. There was slow recovery from the slump in the subsequent years. The 1958 grain production level was not regained until 1966 During the food crisis, grain availability per person declined even more severely because, in the first two years, grain exports reached historical heights As shown in Table l, net grain export increased from 2.7 million tons in 1958 to 4.2 million tons in 1959. When combined with the decline in output, this resulted in a 17% and a further 13% reduction in per capita food supply in two consecutive years. Pressured by the food emergencies, China imported 4.5 Table 1 Grain Output, Procurement and International Trade QuotayOutput Per ca (million tons)(million tons) (%) (million tons) grain(kg/year) 169.52 47. 25.87 19275 40.22 20.87 195.05 1958 200.00 25.92 4.2 1961 160.00 32.42 9 21. 4.5 252.3 187.50 4.7 194.53 20.16 4.0 273.7 214.00 19.35 Source: State Statistical Bureau,(1990, P. 12, P. 26). Ministry of Agriculture, Planing Bureau(1984, 434) i9 Here and in the subsequent analysis, we use data between 1934 and 1966. This specific period is taken for consideration because important de c statistics such as death rate. are ome provinces prior to 1954. The period ends in 1966, the beginning of the Cultural Revolution, when the nation entered a distinctly different historical era c Royal Economic Society 2000(1990) proposed a game theory explanation that the main cause of the agricultural collapse was the deprivation of the peasants' right to withdraw from the collectives. This switch in the form of organisation changed the incentive structure for the peasants and consequently undermined agricultural productivity. In this paper, we do not investigate the determinants of the sudden drop in output; instead, we focus on the consequences of the supply shock. More speci®cally, we analyse the relative importance of food availability and legal entitlement to food in causing the subsequent famine. Statistical ®gures in Table 1 reveal that there were sharp reductions in grain availability for the period 1959±61.19 Prior to the collapse, the total grain output continued to increase, reaching a record high in 1958 with 200 million tons. In 1959, total supply suddenly dropped by 15% and, in the following two years (1960 and 1961), it was even worse, reaching only about 70% of the 1958 level. There was slow recovery from the slump in the subsequent years. The 1958 grain production level was not regained until 1966. During the food crisis, grain availability per person declined even more severely because, in the ®rst two years, grain exports reached historical heights. As shown in Table 1, net grain export increased from 2.7 million tons in 1958 to 4.2 million tons in 1959. When combined with the decline in output, this resulted in a 17% and a further 13% reduction in per capita food supply in two consecutive years. Pressured by the food emergencies, China imported 4.5 19 Here and in the subsequent analysis, we use data between 1954 and 1966. This speci®c period is taken for consideration because important demographic statistics, such as death rate, are missing for some provinces prior to 1954. The period ends in 1966, the beginning of the Cultural Revolution, when the nation entered a distinctly different historical era. Table 1. Grain Output, Procurement and International Trade Year Output (million tons) Quota (million tons) Quota/Output (%) Net export (million tons) Per capita grain (kg=year) 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 169.52 183.74 192.75 195.05 200.00 50.89 47.54 40.22 45.97 51.83 30.02 25.87 20.87 23.57 25.92 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 278.5 295.5 302.8 298.7 299.0 1959 1960 1961 170.00 143.50 147.50 64.12 46.54 36.55 37.71 32.43 24.78 4.2 2.7 ÿ4.5 246.7 212.7 230.8 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 160.00 170.00 187.50 194.53 214.00 32.42 36.99 40.14 39.22 41.42 20.26 21.76 21.41 20.16 19.35 ÿ3.9 ÿ4.5 ÿ4.7 ÿ4.0 ÿ3.6 243.6 252.3 272.6 273.7 291.9 Source : State Statistical Bureau, (1990, p. 12, p. 26). Ministry of Agriculture, Planing Bureau (1984, p. 434). 2000] 143 THE CHINESE FAMINE OF 1959±61 # Royal Economic Society 2000