TWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 133 cialization in sex roles,with men expecting torical contexts.Indeed,trends that began to focus on market work after marriage and when the early baby-boomers were entering women expecting to concentrate their efforts adulthood in the late 1960s and 1970s- at home.Such a view suggests that good trends such as improved economic opportu- prospects in the labor market will increase nities for women and widespread movement the likelihood of marriage among men,who toward more egalitarian gender role ideals- will feel better prepared to marry,but reduce were more firmly established by the 1980s the likelihood of marriage among women, and early 1990s,when the late baby- who will see marriage as a relatively less at- boomers were moving into adulthood. tractive option than continuing to work out- Three questions about potential change in side the home.Yet models that were designed the process and context of marriage guide the to explain marriage before the revolutionary current research.First,as women are increas- economic changes of the 1960s and 1970s ingly expected to work outside the home over may be inappropriate for understanding mar- the course of their lives and as patterns of riage formation in more recent historical pe- consumption and gender role attitudes have riods.Building on the work of Oppenheimer changed,I ask whether women's economic (1988),I consider an alternative possibility: prospects(as indicated by their earnings, Rather than making marriage unnecessary or educational attainment,and employment sta- undesirable,changes in the labor market po- tus)have become more important for mar- sitions of both women and men-along with riage formation over time.Second,as women contemporaneous shifts in gender role atti- are increasingly able (and expected)to con- tudes and patterns of consumption-have al- tribute to the economic maintenance of their tered the nature of the marital bargain. families after marriage,I ask whether men's Through an investigation of the changing re- economic prospects have become somewhat lationship between economic prospects and less important for marriage formation over entry into first marriage,I examine the pos- time.Finally,given relatively large racial dif- sibility that the economic foundations of ferences in the economic and attitudinal con- marriage have shifted. text of marriage,I ask whether the nature of Although previous research has examined recent historical change in the relationship the association between marriage and eco- between economic prospects and marriage nomic prospects in particular historical peri- differs for blacks and for whites. ods,few studies have been explicitly de- signed to investigate historical change,thus THEORY,CONTEXT,AND limiting our understanding of the roots and PREVIOUS RESEARCH meanings of contemporary marriage patterns (Modell 1999).I use a classic demographic Arguments suggesting that improvements in technique to study the process of social women's economic standing are responsible change:a comparison of the experiences of for recent declines in marriage derive theo- successive birth cohorts.Indeed,Ryder retical support from Becker's ([1981]1992) (1965)argues that the continued replace- “specialization and trading”model of mar- ment of one cohort by another greatly facili- riage.Borrowing ideas from the interna- tates transformations in societies,and fur- tional trade literature,Becker views single ther,"if change does occur,it differentiates men and women as trading partners who cohorts from one another,and the compari- choose to marry only when both partners be- son of their careers becomes a way to study lieve that they will be better off married than change"(p.844).To this end,the current single.All else held constant,the gains to analysis combines data from multiple marriage are greatest when men and women sources to compare the marriage formation specialize in the labor market and home,re- behaviors of the "early baby-boom"cohort spectively,and trade on their comparative (born between 1950 and 1954)and the "late advantages in these tasks.Becker argues that baby-boom"cohort (born between 1961 and "the gain from marriage is reduced...by 1965)in the United States.These cohorts higher earnings and labor force participation reached adulthood,and made decisions of married women,because the sexual divi- about marriage,in somewhat different his- sion of labor within households becomes This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon,12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and ConditionsTWO DECADES OF FAMILY CHANGE 133 cialization in sex roles, with men expecting to focus on market work after marriage and women expecting to concentrate their efforts at home. Such a view suggests that good prospects in the labor market will increase the likelihood of marriage among men, who will feel better prepared to marry, but reduce the likelihood of marriage among women, who will see marriage as a relatively less at￾tractive option than continuing to work out￾side the home. Yet models that were designed to explain marriage before the revolutionary economic changes of the 1960s and 1970s may be inappropriate for understanding mar￾riage formation in more recent historical pe￾riods. Building on the work of Oppenheimer (1988), I consider an alternative possibility: Rather than making marriage unnecessary or undesirable, changes in the labor market po￾sitions of both women and men-along with contemporaneous shifts in gender role atti￾tudes and patterns of consumption-have al￾tered the nature of the marital bargain. Through an investigation of the changing re￾lationship between economic prospects and entry into first marriage, I examine the pos￾sibility that the economic foundations of marriage have shifted. Although previous research has examined the association between marriage and eco￾nomic prospects in particular historical peri￾ods, few studies have been explicitly de￾signed to investigate historical change, thus limiting our understanding of the roots and meanings of contemporary marriage patterns (Modell 1999). I use a classic demographic technique to study the process of social change: a comparison of the experiences of successive birth cohorts. Indeed, Ryder (1965) argues that the continued replace￾ment of one cohort by another greatly facili￾tates transformations in societies, and fur￾ther, "if change does occur, it differentiates cohorts from one another, and the compari￾son of their careers becomes a way to study change" (p. 844). To this end, the current analysis combines data from multiple sources to compare the marriage formation behaviors of the "early baby-boom" cohort (born between 1950 and 1954) and the "late baby-boom" cohort (born between 1961 and 1965) in the United States. These cohorts reached adulthood, and made decisions about marriage, in somewhat different his￾torical contexts. Indeed, trends that began when the early baby-boomers were entering adulthood in the late 1960s and 1970s￾trends such as improved economic opportu￾nities for women and widespread movement toward more egalitarian gender role ideals￾were more firmly established by the 1980s and early 1990s, when the late baby￾boomers were moving into adulthood. Three questions about potential change in the process and context of marriage guide the current research. First, as women are increas￾ingly expected to work outside the home over the course of their lives and as patterns of consumption and gender role attitudes have changed, I ask whether women's economic prospects (as indicated by their earnings, educational attainment, and employment sta￾tus) have become more important for mar￾riage formation over time. Second, as women are increasingly able (and expected) to con￾tribute to the economic maintenance of their families after marriage, I ask whether men's economic prospects have become somewhat less important for marriage formation over time. Finally, given relatively large racial dif￾ferences in the economic and attitudinal con￾text of marriage, I ask whether the nature of recent historical change in the relationship between economic prospects and marriage differs for blacks and for whites. THEORY, CONTEXT, AND PREVIOUS RESEARCH Arguments suggesting that improvements in women's economic standing are responsible for recent declines in marriage derive theo￾retical support from Becker's ([198111992) "specialization and trading" model of mar￾riage. Borrowing ideas from the interna￾tional trade literature, Becker views single men and women as trading partners who choose to marry only when both partners be￾lieve that they will be better off married than single. All else held constant, the gains to marriage are greatest when men and women specialize in the labor market and home, re￾spectively, and trade on their comparative advantages in these tasks. Becker argues that "the gain from marriage is reduced ... by higher earnings and labor force participation of married women, because the sexual divi￾sion of labor within households becomes This content downloaded from 128.103.149.52 on Mon, 12 Aug 2013 19:18:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions