Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.1,2006,35-55 doi:10.1093/cjip/pol003 Power Transition and China-US Conflicts Ronald L.Tammen*and Jacek Kugler The United States places at risk its opportunity to remain the world's pre- eminent nation by focusing all of its energy,time and capabilities on the war against terrorism and on its ancillary action in Iraq,despite compelling reasons otherwise.This myopia,conditioned by unambiguous security threats and the emotion of the moment,is abetted by a stubborn resistance to the maintenance of a long-term focus in foreign policy.Thus a combination of forces,imposed internally and externally,handicap American leadership and threaten the United States'strategic interests. The attacks of 9/11 and subsequent events in the Middle East have created a condition of immediacy in US foreign policy.The crisis de jure atmosphere dominates our attention and concentrates our intellectual resources.Short-term benefits do exist;for example,as a nation,America has been resilient in its response to the terrorist threat.However,the other pre-occupation,the debate over Iraq,has been notably near-term in its content.The strategic consequences of this action are being understood only now. Behind the facade of these all-consuming national priorities,American strategic thinking has grown stale.This is partly the result of the Cold War generation of policy makers failing to anticipate the new world,and finding their core concepts to be useless both in the war on terrorism and in the broader effort to maintain US leadership.It is also the fault of the supporting strategy-making community and its failure to provide fresh insight,continuity and focus. The potential consequences of this lapse in attention and intellectual insight could not be more severe.A great challenge for the United States and the world lies not in terrorism or even in regional conflict.Instead,it lies in the longer-term collision of interests between the US and an emerging,powerful China.Appreciation of that fact should force policy makers to recalculate and reanalyse current crises from a strategic perspective.Events in the Middle East,South Asia and East Asia are important not for what they are Jacek Kugler et al.,'Integrating Theory and Policy:Global Implications of the War in Iraq'. International Studies Review,Vol.6,No.4(2004).pp.163-79. Corresponding author.Email:tammen@pdx.edu Reproduced from the Science of Internationa/Politics,with kind permission of the authors and the Institute of International Studies,Tsinghua University.Power Transition and China–US Conflicts Ronald L. Tammen* and Jacek Kugler The United States places at risk its opportunity to remain the world’s pre￾eminent nation by focusing all of its energy, time and capabilities on the war against terrorism and on its ancillary action in Iraq, despite compelling reasons otherwise. This myopia, conditioned by unambiguous security threats and the emotion of the moment, is abetted by a stubborn resistance to the maintenance of a long-term focus in foreign policy. Thus a combination of forces, imposed internally and externally, handicap American leadership and threaten the United States’ strategic interests. The attacks of 9/11 and subsequent events in the Middle East have created a condition of immediacy in US foreign policy. The crisis de jure atmosphere dominates our attention and concentrates our intellectual resources. Short-term benefits do exist; for example, as a nation, America has been resilient in its response to the terrorist threat. However, the other pre-occupation, the debate over Iraq, has been notably near-term in its content. The strategic consequences of this action are being understood only now.1 Behind the fac¸ade of these all-consuming national priorities, American strategic thinking has grown stale. This is partly the result of the Cold War generation of policy makers failing to anticipate the new world, and finding their core concepts to be useless both in the war on terrorism and in the broader effort to maintain US leadership. It is also the fault of the supporting strategy-making community and its failure to provide fresh insight, continuity and focus. The potential consequences of this lapse in attention and intellectual insight could not be more severe. A great challenge for the United States and the world lies not in terrorism or even in regional conflict. Instead, it lies in the longer-term collision of interests between the US and an emerging, powerful China. Appreciation of that fact should force policy makers to recalculate and reanalyse current crises from a strategic perspective. Events in the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia are important not for what they are * Corresponding author. Email: tammen@pdx.edu 1 Jacek Kugler et al., ‘Integrating Theory and Policy: Global Implications of the War in Iraq’, International Studies Review, Vol. 6, No. 4 (2004), pp. 163–79. Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 1, 2006, 35–55 doi:10.1093/cjip/pol003 Reproduced from the Science of International Politics, with kind permission of the authors and the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University